grim22 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) I'd have to look through the thread -- god forbid! -- but I think that's right. Looked through HSX, it was Variety: http://variety.com/2015/film/news/avengers-sequel-huge-at-box-office-may-break-originals-record-1201485734/ The first-day numbers for “Age of Ultron” look to come in between $89 million and $98 million — which could break the $91 million opening-day record set in July 2011 by Warner Bros.’ “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2.” The most robust early estimates on Friday indicated that the final number would come in between $210 million and $222 million Edited May 4, 2015 by grim22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Would a low Sunday drop be a sign of good legs or just a correction? Correction from the fight especially in LA which was hit by double whammy of Clippers/Spurs and Pacquiao/Mayweather, if it hits 50-51M. For WOM we're going to need strong holds on Wednesday and Friday. 50M Sunday would be about a 12% drop from Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Boy, The Longest Ride kinda flopped, didn't it? Hopefully the Sparks machine is on its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Would a low Sunday drop be a sign of good legs or just a correction? This early on I would say primarily a correction. Will be interesting to watch things play out on this one. Already a strange run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah, NYC is slight down atm on Sat but LA is way up going into eve NYC didn't crash as hard as L.A. on Saturday. L.A. is making up. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 How did Sunday become the "Prestige TV" night - Did Sopranos start it with Mad Men and Breaking Bad cementing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 NYC didn't crash as hard as L.A. on Saturday. L.A. is making up. Awesome. Yeah no where near and yes its definetly making up for it atm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Lol at the title. I don't think 187M+ requires redemption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AniNate Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 How did Sunday become the "Prestige TV" night - Did Sopranos start it with Mad Men and Breaking Bad cementing it? I guess a combination of being a school night and cable channels not wanting to compete with network programming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Snip I have a hard time believing it beat Spider Man 3 and TDK this weekend in ticket sales. From Deadline: Of those attending Ultron‘s first weekend, men turned up at 59%, females at 41% and the overall majority being over 25 at 59%. Imax contributed $18M stateside at 364 hubs. For Imax, that’s the second-highest bow at the domestic B.O. after The The Dark Knight Rises. It also beats Iron Man 3‘s $15.6M first Imax weekend, which now ranks as third. Premium large format grossed a record $13.5M at 400 sites. Cinemark XD led the way with he total PLF gross of $3.5 million. RealD 3D rang up $56M repping a third ofUltron‘s opening weekend. So the 3D share actually went up over the weekend to 47%. 30% 3D, 10% IMAX, 7% Other Premium, 53% 2D. This yields 18.2M tickets sold this weekend. Here's my OW attendance list. I've taken into account every factor that was posted as best as I can (IMAX/3D/Other/etc.). Unfortunately, no one's ever provided a children audience share, so I cannot account for youth tickets, though in some of the weekend breakdowns, we're told the fraction of the audience that is over/under 25. Notably, 2 of the top 3 openers have a over/under 25 split of 50%, TDK and TA, but SM3 had a split of 63% under the age of 25, so I think it's fair to say that in actuality, it holds the true crown for OW attendance, likely a little over 23M. In the same manner, you can do a mental adjustment for any film that might lean younger (such as Potter or Shrek, or TDK vs. TA). TDK - 22.4M SM3 - 22.1M TA - 21.8M DMC - 20.7M NM - 19.9M SM1 - 19.7M TDKR - 19.4M DH2 - 19.0M CF - 18.9M THG - 18.9M AOU - 18.2M BD1 - 18.2M IM3 - 18.1M BD2 - 18.0M Shrek 3 - 18.0M Shrek 2 - 17.5M (20.9M 5-day) ROTS - 17.0M (24.9M 4-day) AWE - 17.0M (22.6M 5-day) I will update this once actuals for Ultron are reported. Keep in mind, BOM doesn't adjust individual pictures all that well from the past 3-4 years due to the explosion of 3D and IMAX. They use an overall price (which works at the macro level for yearly total gross), but the ticket prices are skewed for individual films. 2D films prior to 2009 are overestimated, while 2D films after 2009 are underestimated. SM1 adjusted is probably a few million lower than that 155 million figure. Mojo's ticket sales numbers for individual films are incorrect in the post-Avatar 3D era. They use yearly/quarterly average ticket price and apply it to all films (instead of looking at each film's exact 2D/3D splits), when it is only meant to work for the timeframe. From 2010 onwards, 2D-centric films will be slightly underestimated on that scale, while 3D-centric films are overestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lordmandeep Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) hard to tell Edited May 4, 2015 by Lordmandeep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grim22 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Guessing it ends up with around 192M with actuals as has been my guess since Thursday Considering preview numbers as part of the weekend with 192M: Cap 2 legs: 519M IM3 legs: 451M Thor 2 legs: 448M Avengers 1 legs: 575M 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah no where near and yes its definetly making up for it atm Good to hear. Hopefully with actuals tomorrow, Sunday will be over 50M. Rth, thanks for what you do. I know this weekend has been tough but my trust in you as strong as ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 In retrospect when I realize only the top 3 legendary openers (TA, TDK and Spiderman 3) and maybe DMC sold more tickets opening weekend, makes me re think the 188. Well, look at Spizzer's post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 not wishful at all Yeah, NYC is slight down atm on Sat but LA is way up going into eve Yeah no where near and yes its definetly making up for it atm Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 If it makes below 448M tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecstasy Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yeah no where near and yes its definetly making up for it atm West Covina and South Gate still have sell outs going. Looks like Long Beach is done for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 If it makes below 448M tho... Stop it #ED. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 If it makes below 448M tho... then you can party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spizzer Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Well, look at Spizzer's post above. If it ends up getting to 193M with the same splits, it would be at 18.7M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
