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grim22

Tuesday numbers: AOU 13.13M (slightly down)

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I have been saying it for more than a week that this would have Iron Man 3/Thor 2 legs.

I hope it'd have a better leg because it's a far more entertaining movie than those 2.

 

All the bad presses don't help either.

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I have been saying it for more than a week that this would have Iron Man 3/Thor 2 legs.

 

Thor 2 had its legs severed by Catching Fire, and Iron Man 3 had a ton of competition in its third/fourth weekend. May seems to be fairly soft this year, so I think Age of Ultron will fair a little better in its later weekends. Not a ton better, but enough to finish with $475-490M instead of the $450-460M it would receive if it followed IM3/Thor2.

 

EDIT: Adjusted my range, since $500M is starting to look like a longshot. 

Edited by kswiston
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haha, C.J at his best!

How are you bro? Been a long time..

I am fine. Just waiting for Mad Max, San Andreas and Jurassic World to arrive.

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Again, will be the second biggest Tuesday that wasn't an OD, a holiday, or had any benefit of kids being out of school and/or adults off work. Between TA1 and IM3.

Not saying this as positive spin, I am genuinely interested in what films had the biggest "normal" weekdays where everyone was in school or at work, and there was nothing special to boost it (like The Vow's first Tuesday falling on Valentine's Day). It seems to be:

TA1 $17.7M

AoU $13-13.2M

IM3 $11.3M

THG $10.34M (unless some schools were off that week?)

SM1 $9.96M

Sniper(!) $9.92M

ROTSith $9.9M

TPOTChrist(!!) $9.28M

TA1 (second Tues) $8.48M

IM2 $8.38M

If THG was indeed boosted by some schools/colleges being out that week, then #10 is DOFP with $8.2M. (Or if any schools or colleges were already out the week after Memorial Day to boost DOFP's first Tuesday, then #10 would be TPM with $8.18M.)

(And wow that Sniper pulled a nearly $10M Tuesday, in January, with everyone back in school/work after that Monday. I only realize now how crazy that was.)

Edited by TServo2049
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I have been saying it for more than a week that this would have Iron Man 3/Thor 2 legs.

Unlikely it's legs will be like those 2. CF killed Thor 2 while FF6 took care of middle to late legs for IM3. TA2 has lot less competition so 2.5-2.6 multiplier is likely.

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Unlikely it's legs will be like those 2. CF killed Thor 2 while FF6 took care of middle to late legs for IM3. TA2 has lot less competition so 2.5-2.6 multiplier is likely.

So 477-496 million is the range? Sounds good. I think the weak competition this month could potentially push it to 2.7x (515 million)
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No one thinks MAD MAX: FR could be competition?

It has a good looking trailer for sure but how's the hype over there? In Australia we're getting PP2 this week and MM the next but in the US they're both getting released in the same weekend so I don't know if the combination of the two can hurt AOU.

 

I am fine. Just waiting for Mad Max, San Andreas and Jurassic World to arrive.

Me too. Already got my ticket for Mad Max next Thur night. :P

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It has a good looking trailer for sure but how's the hype over there? In Australia we're getting PP2 this week and MM the next but in the US they're both getting released in the same weekend so I don't know if the combination of the two can hurt AOU.

 

Ha ha. I'm not from the U.S. Tele is the right person to ask.  :lol:

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If Tele's buys 8-10M tickets otherwise TA2 is safe.

This means TA2 is not safe. At all. Tele is going for 20M in tickets. No less.

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Iron Man 3 faced a 50M opening in its second weekend, a 70M opener in its third weekend, and a 90M / 41M / 33M openers in its fourth weekend.

 

Three of this five openers were direct competition.

 

Avengers2 will face virtually nothing in its second weekend. In its third weekend PP2 and MMFR are not going to grab the same attention ST2 got in 2013. And Poltergeist/Tomorrowland combo is not FF6/Hangover3/Epic combo.

 

Avengers2 is well positioned to get better legs than IM3.

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