JennaJ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) I went through the BSG averages to see what we collectively predicted for movies and whether they exceeded, hit or fell below predictions this summer Movie Name, High predict, Low predict, Average, Actual Avengers 2: 760M, 474M, 570M, 458M PP2: 185M, 81M, 135M, 185M MMFR: 183M, 88M, 135M, 153M Tomorrowland: 253M, 85M, 160M, 92M San Andreas: 164M, 87M, 125M, 153M Spy, 180M, 73M, 150M, 109M Jurassic World: 394M, 190M, 270M, 645M Inside Out: 340M, 206M, 275M, 340M Ted 2: 250M, 107M, 180M, 80M MMXXL: 140M, 80M 120M, 65M Genisys: 180M, 90M, 140M, 88M Minions: 365M, 215M, 300M, ~330M Ant-Man: 300M, 138M, 170M, ~165M Pixels: 215M, 115M, 160M, 60M Rogue Nation: 278M, 110M, 200M, 175-180M Fantastic Four: 205M, 106M, 140M, 50-60M The only movie which the entire forum predicted with less than a 5% divergence from the final gross based on the average prediction would be Ant-Man. We seem to have gone high on most movies, maybe it was the after effect of a great Winter and Spring box office. Jurassic World was missed by everyone by a large margin. Wow, awesome work! Really interesting to see how expectations measured up to reality. The only movies where the actual total was below or above the min/max prediction (basically the movies where not even the outliers got it): Below the lowest prediction (in order of samllest to largest error): TG (Lowest:90, Actual:88, 2.3% difference) Avengers 2 (Lowest:474, Actual: 458, 3.4% difference) MMXXL (Lowest:80, Actual:65, 19% difference) Ted 2 (Lowest:107, Actual:65, 39.3% difference) Pixels (L: 115, A:60, D:48%) FF (LL:106, A:55, D:49%) Above the highest prediction - Only one movie: JW (Highest: 394, Actual: 645, 64% higher) Based on that, I guess you could say a lot more movies disappointed compared to our expectations this summer, than the opposite. Edited August 11, 2015 by JennaJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Mojo woke up, added for the last week comparison / percentages (till Tele's... ) Really (~ morbid?) curious to see next Monday's daily for FF percentages Monday, August 10, 2015 >Yr >Mo >Wk >>Next Day TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 1 Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation Par. $3,315,825 -61% -51% 3,988 $831 $111,081,404 11 2 2 Fantastic Four Fox $2,262,459 -61% - 3,995 $566 $27,948,196 4 3 3 The Gift (2015) STX $1,351,089 -58% - 2,503 $540 $13,205,362 4 4 4 Vacation WB (NL) $1,121,158 -56% -39% 3,430 $327 $38,256,184 13 5 6 Minions Uni. $1,108,665 -50% -45% 3,123 $355 $303,911,805 32 6 5 Ant-Man BV $1,092,833 -54% -42% 2,910 $376 $148,614,824 25 7 9 Pixels Sony $794,833 -50% -52% 2,864 $278 $58,445,676 18 8 8 Trainwreck Uni. $783,855 -53% -41% 2,525 $310 $91,732,835 25 9 7 Ricki and the Flash TriS $765,878 -57% - 1,603 $478 $7,376,839 4 10 10 Southpaw Wein. $664,668 -56% -42% 2,274 $292 $41,327,599 18 11 11 Shaun the Sheep Movie LGF $605,967 -50% - 2,320 $261 $6,216,267 6 12 12 Inside Out BV $462,282 -45% -42% 1,358 $340 $335,852,827 53 - - Paper Towns Fox $272,692 -34% -71% 1,284 $212 $29,096,825 18 - - Jurassic World Uni. $262,965 -53% -56% 1,119 $235 $635,936,805 60 - - Mr. Holmes RAtt. $158,000 -58% -49% 777 $203 $12,939,000 25 - - San Andreas WB $60,769 -58% +71% 302 $201 $152,930,172 74 - - Spy Fox $37,327 -55% -44% 306 $122 $109,518,767 67 - - Terminator: Genisys Par. $36,802 -56% -73% 304 $121 $88,541,657 41 - - Magic Mike XXL WB $30,687 -52% -69% 222 $138 $65,393,449 41 - - Home (2015) Fox $27,792 -14% +8% 159 $175 $177,065,271 137 - - Mad Max: Fury Road WB $25,331 -52% -45% 213 $119 $152,530,665 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Gigantic movies cannibalize the market and leave us with mid size hits (though not necessarily 200 M films). The same thing happened in summer 2011 and 2012. Having big films in March-April also has an effect imo. I'm really curious about next summer. This. When you have gigantic hits in early summer, they kill demand for movies that come afterwards. People don't go see all summer tentpoles, they always choose some of them. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Futurist Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) Like I said before JW Ultron & F7 all create a vortex of mediocrity in the market Fixed Edited August 11, 2015 by The Futurist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terrestrial Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 No need to know its actual number or its estimate, it's surpassing the mark on Wednesday. Out of BO.com today's comment: Ant-Man followed very closely behind in sixth place with $1.093 million. The Paul Rudd led 3D superhero film from Disney and Marvel decreased 54 percent from Sunday and a solid 42 percent from last Monday. Ant-Man has grossed $148.61 million in 25 days and will surpass the $150 million mark either today or Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TServo2049 Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Also, a larger portion of a shrinking proportion to the total population of US/CAN seeing the biggest movies in a more compressed amount of time. Total ticket sales for this summer will be on the level of 1993-97, after the first big jump in summer season admissions, but before the second explosion from 1998 on that led to summers adjusting to over $4.5B every year from 1998-2009 (save for 2005, which only adjusts to $25m below that threshold). It's just that 2015 is even top-heavier than the mid-90s summers (more movies clearing $300, none clearing $200, and as I said, the was business is crammed into a shorter period.) Look at 1993: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/seasonal/?view=calendargross&yr=1993&season=Summer&adjust_yr=2015&p=.htm Kind of similar, except business was actually spread out more - Jurassic Park legged its way to $620m adj. by Labor Day, by this time it was only at $567.3m adj. - and The Fugitive opened in August (and legged past summer). Am I making sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K1stpierre Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Still great drops for JW considering how long it's been out. Still slaying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RthDeadWov Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 US Schools out (inclu college) weekly avg 2015 16-May 25% 23-May 47% 1-Jun 63% 8-Jun 79% 15-Jun 91% 22-Jun 96% 29-Jun 99% 6-Jul 99% 13-Jul 99% 20-Jul 98% 27-Jul 98% 3-Aug 93% 10-Aug 82% 17-Aug 64% 24-Aug 31% 31-aug 19% 7-Sep 1% 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Still great drops for JW considering how long it's been out. Still slaying crumbling. FTFY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Still great drops for JW considering how long it's been out. Still slaying. So "slaying" is a synonym for "crumbling" now? They need to update Roget's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 So "slaying" is a synonym for "crumbling" now? They need to update Roget's. No, I think Kelli was being sincere, me? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 No, I think Kelli was being sincere, me? You beat me by like a few seconds with your "FTFY". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Wow, I didn't even know that image was made into a meme, AA. That's awesome!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JennaJ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 (edited) So "slaying" is a synonym for "crumbling" now? They need to update Roget's. Pretty sure every time Crumbling's being used in reference to to JW, it's sarcastic (well except for that first time when Focus used it seriously). But it should really be retired with the movie. It was funny because of how ridiculous it was to say JW was crumbling on its 2nd record breaking weekend. It's not funny when we say it about every movie regardless of context. Edited August 11, 2015 by JennaJ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Wow, I didn't even know that image was made into a meme, AA. That's awesome!!! You inspire me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Pretty sure every time Crumbling's being used in reference to to JW, it's sarcastic (well except for that first time when Focus used it seriously). But it should really be retired with the movie. It was funny because of how ridiculous it was to say JW was crumbling on its 2nd record breaking weekend. It's not funny when we say it about every movie always. But it's just so hard to resist sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 You inspire me. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 I just finished watching this on AMC earlier to.. Never gets old. The sequels however...I like to live in a universe where there were no sequels ever made to these films: Jaws Aliens Predator Dumb and Dumber Speed Halloween Home Alone Mortal Kombat The Matrix Poltergeist Robocop Terminator 2 Transporter Batman Forever(That includes spinoffs) Among others... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Never gets old. The sequels however...I like to live in a universe where there were no sequels ever made to these films: Jaws Aliens Predator Dumb and Dumber Speed Halloween Home Alone Mortal Kombat The Matrix Poltergeist Robocop Terminator 2 Transporter Batman Forever(That includes spinoffs) Among others... I thought Jaws 2 was an absolutely worthy sequel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 JAWS 2 Came on immediately after JAWS and I turned on SEINFELD.. JAWS 2 to me is a standard sequel that manages to keep the cast while adding a shark that looks worse than the 1st movie and some chick who keeps screaming toward the middle/end of the movie that needed to be thrown overboard.. Those who have seen this movie will no who I'm talking about.. Her voice and scream is grating, even for the shark who went back under to get away from her... I thought she was a terrific character. She behaved realistically imo. She was beyond hysterical. Her cousin was the one that got eaten by Bruce as she tried to get up on the hull with Sean. She saw that shit happen. That would mess you up, seeing a family member swallowed whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
