Monday #s

[CJohn]

This week school out (depending on day) ranges from 76-86%, college 96%

next week drops to 60-70% college 77-83

come 24th just over 30% school/college left on hols, week b4 labor day less 20%

Well, there it is.

[goldenstate5]

Kids out here in Vegas are still out of school for two more weeks.

 

...soon.

[Captain Craig]

 

The vast majority of school districts in the [NORTHERN & WESTERN*] US start around Labor Day (1st day after or a week or two prior).  Thus most kids are still out of school for another few weeks.

 

We do this every year. Middle TN, if not majority of the state is back in school or will be this time next week. BKB noted MO is back next week. Atlanta area schools went back August 3, that's a huge block of potential patrons. Louisville, KY area goes back 8/12. I could go on.

The South largely is back in session weeks before Labor Day. So close to 1/2 the country is already back in school, Secondary or College, by Labor Day which is why an August release has to be strong to survive. The weekday dollar for lazy summer patrons diminishes every week after the first Monday in August. 

[StarSaber]

This week school out (depending on day) ranges from 76-86%, college 96%

next week drops to 60-70% college 77-83

come 24th  just over 30% school/college left on hols, week b4 labor day less 20%

We argue about this every year. This post will be saved for future years and settle it for good.

 

So sayeth RTH.

[StarSaber]

Now we just need the data on when kids go on summer vacation and all will be right.

[baumer]

It opened to 26M.. Jesus, I'd say by next weekend, it'd be lucky to make less than 10M.. The movie appears to be a complete disaster and I get you like to take the level headed approach to everything, but it's still worth bagging on.. I said from Day 1 that this movie was a disaster in the making.. By the end of the business day today, we should be hearing something about FOX contacting MARVEL for a switch off in exchange for the X-MEN TV Show..

 

But I'm not talking about its overall performance.  I agree it sucks.  I'm talking about the Monday.

[Amadeus]

 

Upside of this summer is that the rest of August only needs about 270m to beat last year. That... should be possible?

 

Downside is that it's going to come behind any previous summer this decade.

 

Year Gross* 2015

% change 2014

% change 2013

% change 2012

% change 2011

% change 2010

% change 2015 $3,800.6 - -6.5% -20.1% -11.8% -13.6% -9.8% 2014 $4,065.5 +7.0% - -14.5% -5.6% -7.6% -3.6% 2013 $4,754.4 +25.1% +16.9% - +10.4% +8.0% +12.8% 2012 $4,307.3 +13.3% +5.9% -9.4% - -2.1% +2.2% 2011 $4,401.4 +15.8% +8.3% -7.4% +2.2% - +4.4% 2010 $4,215.3 +10.9% +3.7% -11.3% -2.1% -4.2% -

 

Actually, this year's Spring season was also weaker than any previous year.

 

Year Gross* 2015

% change 2014

% change 2013

% change 2012

% change 2011

% change 2010

% change 2015 $1,424.1 - -2.7% -3.5% -15.2% -7.1% -13.1% 2014 $1,463.0 +2.7% - -0.9% -12.9% -4.6% -10.8% 2013 $1,475.7 +3.6% +0.9% - -12.2% -3.8% -10.0% 2012 $1,680.2 +18.0% +14.8% +13.9% - +9.6% +2.5% 2011 $1,533.2 +7.7% +4.8% +3.9% -8.8% - -6.5% 2010 $1,639.3 +15.1% +12.0% +11.1% -2.4% +6.9% -

 

Basically, it's been coasting on the very strong Winter season.

 

Year Gross* 2015

% change 2014

% change 2013

% change 2012

% change 2011

% change 2010

% change 2015 $1,773.0 - +8.6% +27.5% +13.4% +33.8% +8.7% 2014 $1,632.1 -7.9% - +17.4% +4.4% +23.2% +0.0% 2013 $1,390.3 -21.6% -14.8% - -11.1% +4.9% -14.8% 2012 $1,563.4 -11.8% -4.2% +12.4% - +18.0% -4.2% 2011 $1,325.1 -25.3% -18.8% -4.7% -15.2% - -18.8% 2010 $1,631.5 -8.0% -0.0% +17.3% +4.4% +23.1% -

 

Actually, this summer season ain't too bad. If you take a look at the season-to-date grosses you'll see that every past summer (except for that 2013 monster) is tailing this one. 2015 summer season stands at 3,800 while the rest stands at:

2014: 3,420

2013: 4,050

2012: 3,650

2011: 3,660

2010: 3,460

August "only" needs to gross 400 more to make this summer on par with the 2012 summer. 

[baumer]

Actually, this summer season ain't too bad. If you take a look at the season-to-date grosses you'll see that every past summer (except for that 2013 monster) is tailing this one. 2015 summer season stands at 3,800 while the rest stands at:

2014: 3,420

2013: 4,050

2012: 3,650

2011: 3,660

2010: 3,460

August "only" needs to gross 400 more to make this summer on par with the 2012 summer. 

 

Yea but the point many are making is that take out two giants hits this summer and it's been quite tame.

[Gopher]

Bumping MI5 up to 3.3 and F4 up to 2.25. 

 

If you ask me, the big mid-range blockbuster has been either absent for the summer or has found a new ceiling in the 150m-180m region (Ant-Man, MI5, San Andreas, Mad Max, and Pitch Perfect 2, all of which I'd say did well or overperformed). There's the four big ones, and the gulf between Minions and the next highest grosser will be something like 150 mil. Last summer the ceiling was much lower but we got seven 200 million movies as opposed to four this year. 

 

And maybe it's just anecdotal but I feel like we got a special amount of disappointments that just didn't pull their weight at all at the box office. Ted 2, Terminator, Fantastic Four, Tomorrowland and Pixels all collectively did less than half than what we expected from them or what their studios thought they could do. That makes Avengers coming in 50-100 mil under expectations matter, too. 

[kayumanggi]

Gigantic movies cannibalize the market and leave us with mid size hits (though not necessarily 200 M films). The same thing happened in summer 2011 and 2012. Having big films in March-April also has an effect imo. I'm really curious about next summer.

Edited August 11, 2015 by kayumanggi

[zackzack]

Like I said before JW & F7 both create a vortex of mediocrity in the market

[BK007]

Bumping MI5 up to 3.3 and F4 up to 2.25. 

 

If you ask me, the big mid-range blockbuster has been either absent for the summer or has found a new ceiling in the 150m-180m region (Ant-Man, MI5, San Andreas, Mad Max, and Pitch Perfect 2, all of which I'd say did well or overperformed). There's the four big ones, and the gulf between Minions and the next highest grosser will be something like 150 mil. Last summer the ceiling was much lower but we got seven 200 million movies as opposed to four this year. 

 

And maybe it's just anecdotal but I feel like we got a special amount of disappointments that just didn't pull their weight at all at the box office. Ted 2, Terminator, Fantastic Four, Tomorrowland and Pixels all collectively did less than half than what we expected from them or what their studios thought they could do. That makes Avengers coming in 50-100 mil under expectations matter, too. 

 

Whilst I agree with much of what you are saying, I do not think predictions were that high on Ted 2 or Terminator. Ted 2 disappointed but much like Ultron did.

 

Fantastic Four is the only true expectations bomb out. Both Tomorrowland and Pixels had huge upper range due to the X factor of quality. When both did not meet it, they hit their always possible low end. Original fare works out that way.

[BK007]

Like I said before JW & F7 both create a vortex of mediocrity in the market

 

What.

 

That makes no sense. 

 

Nothing was even scheduled to go up against F7 anyway.

 

JW was never even expected to be as big and when it was, had Inside Out open in its second weekend. Ted 2 and Terminator 5, the first to "test" it were the weakest potential franchises/prospects in the market. 

[KGator]

We do this every year. Middle TN, if not majority of the state is back in school or will be this time next week. BKB noted MO is back next week. Atlanta area schools went back August 3, that's a huge block of potential patrons. Louisville, KY area goes back 8/12. I could go on.

The South largely is back in session weeks before Labor Day. So close to 1/2 the country is already back in school, Secondary or College, by Labor Day which is why an August release has to be strong to survive. The weekday dollar for lazy summer patrons diminishes every week after the first Monday in August. 

 

I believe you are mistaken.  Lets examine just the south.  The largest southern states like Texas, Florida, the Carolinas and Virginia all have state codes that set the start date of schools no earlier than late August.  That's over half the population of the Southern region.  Combine that with the other regions who historically start around Labor Day and you have a clear majority of students starting AFTER mid August.  Perhaps "vast majority" was overstated since its probably no more than 70% or so of students nationwide.

 

But that's still an awful lot of kids who have the ability to catch movies any day of the week for another few weeks.

 

And college students can usually catch movies whenever they want anyways.  They are their own category since their schedules vary from student to student, semester to semester and they can have free time on various days.  They still tend to go out at night and on weekends though despite this extra freedom during the day.

 

By the way, when younger I attended junior high in Memphis and Dresden Tennessee so I am aware that some areas start school earlier in the year.

[Chaz]

State codes? School dates are decided on the district level.

[mahnamahna]

2015 has such a giant advantage over 2014 at this point, it is not even a competition anymore. August will continue the dominance. September and October are wild cards but November and December are gonna be big as well.

In what world is Sep/Oct 2015 a wild card?

 

Black Mass

The Maze Runner 2

Everest 

Hotel Transylvania 2

The Walk

The Martian

Steve Jobs

Pan

Crimson Peak

Goosebumps

Bridge of Spies

Suffragette 

 

All of those could legitimately do $60 million+ DOM   of those 12, 7-8 of them have a shot at $100 million+ DOM. there's also a very small outside chance Sep-Oct could be bigger than Jul-Aug this year due to how well-rounded the lineup is looking. 

 

I don't see how Sep-Oct 2015 doesn't significantly increase over Fall 2014, unless everything get F4-levels of bad reception.

Edited August 11, 2015 by mahnamahna

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

You know what's funny about this to me? I just realized that out of context both Thanos and Ronan also remind me of Power Rangers villains. And Ronan looks way more wimpy than the comic version. Where's the whining about his look?

[filmlover]

It's kind of remarkable how it's either feast or famine at the box office this year. Almost no middle ground of any kind.

[CJohn]

In what world is Sep/Oct 2015 a wild card?

 

Black Mass

The Maze Runner 2

Everest 

Hotel Transylvania 2

The Walk

The Martian

Steve Jobs

Pan

Crimson Peak

Goosebumps

Bridge of Spies

Suffragette 

 

All of those could legitimately do $60 million+ DOM   of those 12, 7-8 of them have a shot at $100 million+ DOM. there's also a very small outside chance Sep-Oct could be bigger than Jul-Aug this year due to how well-rounded the lineup is looking. 

 

I don't see how Sep-Oct 2015 doesn't significantly increase over Fall 2014, unless everything get F4-levels of bad reception.

You do realize I was talking about Portugal, right?

[grim22]

It's kind of remarkable how it's either feast or famine at the box office this year. Almost no middle ground of any kind.

 

I went through the BSG averages to see what we collectively predicted for movies and whether they exceeded, hit or fell below predictions this summer

 

Movie Name,  High predict, Low predict, Average, Actual

Avengers 2:       760M,         474M,          570M,      458M

PP2:                  185M,          81M,           135M,       185M

MMFR:              183M,          88M,           135M,       153M

Tomorrowland:  253M,         85M,           160M,        92M

San Andreas:    164M,          87M,           125M,       153M

Spy,                   180M,          73M,          150M,       109M

Jurassic World:  394M,        190M,          270M,       645M

Inside Out:         340M,        206M,         275M,        340M

Ted 2:               250M,       107M,          180M,         80M

MMXXL:           140M,      80M               120M,         65M

Genisys:           180M,        90M,             140M,        88M

Minions:            365M,       215M,           300M,         ~330M

Ant-Man:           300M,      138M,            170M,        ~165M

Pixels:               215M,      115M,            160M,        60M

Rogue Nation:   278M,     110M,            200M,         175-180M

Fantastic Four:  205M,      106M,          140M,          50-60M

 

The only movie which the entire forum predicted with less than a 5% divergence from the final gross based on the average prediction would be Ant-Man. We seem to have gone high on most movies, maybe it was the after effect of a great Winter and Spring box office. Jurassic World was missed by everyone by a large margin.

Edited August 11, 2015 by grim22