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kayumanggi

ALICE THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS | 222.4 M overseas ● 299.5 M worldwide

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I'm not sold on the notion that it will increase from the first film. As I recall, the biggest draw was the 3D factor and that novelty has worn off. The film itself had mixed reviews, which indicate the sequel probably will see a slight decrease.

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Well, very true....but look how much the blockbusters from this year, has done. 3D or not 3D. And it's more due to Chinese markets growing. And one of them did it without 3D.

For the first film itself....It was just lukewarm by critics & audience. Some hated it, some really liked it.

DOM-decrease, sure. But I think OS+China could make up for it.

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Ok, some people, who thinks 300-400M OS, (though doable)....has to kid themselves, just a bit.

That's not that very realistic...that's wishful thinking, just because they hated the last one. I can understand the hate, but being a hater of the previous movie is not gonna be enough to want it to drop massively. It doesn't really work that way.

The quality of the next one will determine how big the gross will be for ATTLG.

I mean, if anyone said like $500-600M OS....it would like "Ok". That's more reasonable number even though it's lower, but $300M OS only??.....no fucking way. Especially with how Chinese markets play out.

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Valid points, but i raise one key aspect...

 

Alice in Wonderland was riding off the goodwill of the biggest film of all time.  the first film to use 3D in a way that entranced audiences on a large level.  ie. made it an experience.  alice was that 2nd film which i still feel to this day is why it did so well in the first place.  I still think it would have done only have as well as it did without Avatar just before it.

 

Now i still think it will do well and 300 OS respects that, but i just don't see this reaching the highs of the first film based on this fact alone.  to be honest you could say based upon this the more reasonable numbers is 300 to 400 ? 

 

0h and before you say i'm a hater, i actually liked Alice in Wonderland.  I actually think a very good comparison would be Clash of the Titans.  It too rode off the 3D bump that avatar gave those films.  it's follow up dropped domestically around 50% and about 30% internationally.

 

alice of course did 330m Domestic and 690m OS.  So similar drops would put it around 170m domestic & 460m OS give or take a few.  so maybe my 300m is a little harsh but saying 600m is a shoe also makes no sense.... Also there is a much larger gap here which could have a +ve or -ve impact on the grosses... i'm thinking -ve, hence my 300m OS early estimate for this.

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Valid points, but i raise one key aspect...

 

Alice in Wonderland was riding off the goodwill of the biggest film of all time.  the first film to use 3D in a way that entranced audiences on a large level.  ie. made it an experience.  alice was that 2nd film which i still feel to this day is why it did so well in the first place.  I still think it would have done only have as well as it did without Avatar just before it.

 

Now i still think it will do well and 300 OS respects that, but i just don't see this reaching the highs of the first film based on this fact alone.  to be honest you could say based upon this the more reasonable numbers is 300 to 400 ? 

 

0h and before you say i'm a hater, i actually liked Alice in Wonderland.  I actually think a very good comparison would be Clash of the Titans.  It too rode off the 3D bump that avatar gave those films.  it's follow up dropped domestically around 50% and about 30% internationally.

 

alice of course did 330m Domestic and 690m OS.  So similar drops would put it around 170m domestic & 460m OS give or take a few.  so maybe my 300m is a little harsh but saying 600m is a shoe also makes no sense.... Also there is a much larger gap here which could have a +ve or -ve impact on the grosses... i'm thinking -ve, hence my 300m OS early estimate for this.

 

1. True. Very true points. $400M OS isn't too low for this film, i'll give it that...but since with China's box office firing up....it's very unpredictable of how much a blockbuster can do WW-wise. We just never know, exactly. And yes, the 3D bump definately helped the first one at the time it was released.....but nowadays we get more zeitgeist-movies that still makes over $700M OS and $1B WW and it has become easier now for them. Probably people are still watching 3D movies.

 

2. Don't worry. I don't mean YOU as a hater, and no provoking like that. ^_^ You're a good person. I was just reminding some other people that hatred of a previous movie blindingly makes people wish for a next movie to make less, when it really doesn't often work that way. Hence why people still watched the TF-franchise.

 

3. Granted the below 200M-numbers isn't that bad for a prediction. It's very fine with me, but like i said before...quality of this film will determine how much it can go.

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These are all important and rational points to make. I agree. I just think we should wait for at least some promotional material to come out before making a guess. But for now $400-$450M sounds reasonable. After all, the WOM was better for Alice than Clash so an equal % drop would be disappointing.

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Now that the first trailer is out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OiEG3Zr_Jxs

we can discuss a bit more on its potential.

 

Although, the story does seem significantly different, they are sticking to the same dark formula and the same characters (with Mr. Time being an exception). The cheshire cat is narrating, Depp is as weird and unfathomable as ever, the evil queen laughs, the good queen looks helpless and Alice will come to save the day. Business as usual.

 

A drop is definitely more likely than not at this point.

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At today's ER, Alice made $554M and Maleficent made $401M.

Furthermore, across the same range of territories as Alice 2 is opening this weekend, and at current ER, Alice made $98M and Maleficent made $83M.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/05/alice-through-the-looking-glass-warcraft-international-box-office-preview-1201762358/

 

So it seems like anything around $500M OS would not be bad at all. And $400M would be OK.

 

Domestically, anything above $250M would be great. Something around $200M is more likely, if not lower. So I guess we're looking at $600M WW being quite likely.

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3 hours ago, Quigley said:

At today's ER, Alice made $554M and Maleficent made $401M.

Furthermore, across the same range of territories as Alice 2 is opening this weekend, and at current ER, Alice made $98M and Maleficent made $83M.

 

http://deadline.com/2016/05/alice-through-the-looking-glass-warcraft-international-box-office-preview-1201762358/

 

So it seems like anything around $500M OS would not be bad at all. And $400M would be OK.

 

Domestically, anything above $250M would be great. Something around $200M is more likely, if not lower. So I guess we're looking at $600M WW being quite likely.

 

200m is impossible. Its more likely to miss 100m. For now I would put the gross between 100-150m. I think its missing 500m WW as well. 

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