Predict the WorldWide Top 20 of 2016

[Safeno Rdz]

6 hours ago, peludo said:

I do not know what to say to this...

I feel like everyone is overpredicting BvS just like it happenned with Man of Steel a few years ago (many expected it top become one of the highest of all time). But my reasons to predict it this low are the fact that many people didn't like the first movie, and many others don't agree with Affleck as Batman.

[bapi]

7 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I feel like everyone is overpredicting BvS just like it happenned with Man of Steel a few years ago (many expected it top become one of the highest of all time). But my reasons to predict it this low are the fact that many people didn't like the first movie, and many others don't agree with Affleck as Batman.

Honestly it looks like the most exciting aspect of BvS is Batman and online reactions look good, I believe. Superman and Eisenberg's Lex... well, that's another story.

[peludo]

3 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I feel like everyone is overpredicting BvS just like it happened with Man of Steel a few years ago (many expected it top become one of the highest of all time). But my reasons to predict it this low are the fact that many people didn't like the first movie, and many others don't agree with Affleck as Batman.

I could understand a 800-900 range if the film is awful and legs are horrible. But to think in the same WW figure for BvS than MoS is extremely low, no matter how you look at it. It is the first time that the two most recognizable SH ever share screen (with a fight between them), the first appearance of other SHs like Wonder Woman, Aquaman or Flash, and Lex Luthor as one of the villains.

 

MoS did a so low amount because of the meh reception and still with that quality, it still opened to $115m in US. I can not see this opening lower than $150-160m just because Batman, as a character, is there. No matters if Batman is Affleck or myself. Batman has set the OW record in US 4 times. And as Bapi has said, maybe a so controversial decision makes that people go just because of curiosity. And it has the whole April month free. MoS had enormous competition. And then you have to add $100m more from China for sure...

[Safeno Rdz]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

I could understand a 800-900 range if the film is awful and legs are horrible. But to think in the same WW figure for BvS than MoS is extremely low, no matter how you look at it. It is the first time that the two most recognizable SH ever share screen (with a fight between them), the first appearance of other SHs like Wonder Woman, Aquaman or Flash, and Lex Luthor as one of the villains.

 

MoS did a so low amount because of the meh reception and still with that quality, it still opened to $115m in US. I can not see this opening lower than $150-160m just because Batman, as a character, is there. No matters if Batman is Affleck or myself. Batman has set the OW record in US 4 times. And as Bapi has said, maybe a so controversial decision makes that people go just because of curiosity. And it has the whole April month free. MoS had enormous competition. And then you have to add $100m more from China for sure...

If we've learned something from last couple year's box office is that brand recognition alone won't do wonders anymore, specially Batman, that has been a little overexposed during the last decade, and Bale's Batman is very recent, so it will be hard for audiences to accept someone else (I think it could go through something similar to what happenned with Garfield's spiderman).

 

 

[peludo]

2 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

If we've learned something from last couple year's box office is that brand recognition alone won't do wonders anymore, specially Batman, that has been a little overexposed during the last decade, and Bale's Batman is very recent, so it will be hard for audiences to accept someone else (I think it could go through something similar to what happenned with Garfield's spiderman).

 

 

Even TASM just dropped $150m from SM3 WW. Your prediction say that Batman is falling $400m WW from TDKR, even more if we consider that TDKR did not have 3D. And that without considering he is not alone in the movie. This is not a Batman movie, nor a Superman one. It is another thing. A team-up film. I am sorry, but the $660-680m prediction is absurd.

 

And don't tell me about overexposition when we will have the 6th Iron Man appearance in 8 years, or the 5th one of Captain America in 5 years, both in Civil War.

Edited November 10, 2015 by peludo

[Safeno Rdz]

6 minutes ago, peludo said:

Even TASM just dropped $150m from SM3 WW. Your prediction say that Batman is falling $400m WW from TDKR, even more if we consider that TDKR did not have 3D. And that without considering he is not alone in the movie. This is not a Batman movie, nor a Superman one. It is another thing. A team-up film. I am sorry, but the $660-680m prediction is absurd.

This is a sequel to Man of Steel, not to TDKR.

[peludo]

2 minutes ago, Safeno Rdz said:

This is a sequel to Man of Steel, not to TDKR.

TDKR is the last Batman film. It is the only reference we have. For that reason, you can not simply say this is a simple MoS sequel like TASM2 was to TASM. If this film were just another adventure of Superman against another single villain I would not have problems in giving a chance to your prediction. But this is not that case. This is Superman + Batman + WW + Luthor + another villain + etcetera...

 

For instance, Civil War is a sequel to Winter Soldier, a film which even after Avengers effect barely passed $700m WW, just a bit more than MoS, even being quite more praised than MoS. However, I do not see any doubt here about Civil War explosion well beyond 1 billion. Why? because it is not a simple sequel. It is another thing. So, I do not get the doubts about BvS, considering it is EXACTLY the same format than CW.

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I feel like everyone is overpredicting BvS just like it happenned with Man of Steel a few years ago (many expected it top become one of the highest of all time). But my reasons to predict it this low are the fact that many people didn't like the first movie, and many others don't agree with Affleck as Batman.

It's Superman syndrome. Superman Returns suffered from the pre-release overpredictions even worse than MoS did (I remember some actual box office analysts predicting 500+ DOM for it that year). Granted this time Batman is involved, so that does give an advantage especially OS. But Snyder is at the helm, so that kinda cancels some of that advantage out since you know WOM is likely to be lackluster. BvS will merely be a supersized OW version of MoS at the B.O. DOM. OS might be different, but thinking about it I'm not sure why I just predicted $1b+ in this thread for it? 850-900 is much more likely I think. 

[Safeno Rdz]

21 minutes ago, peludo said:

TDKR is the last Batman film. It is the only reference we have. For that reason, you can not simply say this is a simple MoS sequel like TASM2 was to TASM. If this film were just another adventure of Superman against another single villain I would not have problems in giving a chance to your prediction. But this is not that case. This is Superman + Batman + WW + Luthor + another villain + etcetera...

 

For instance, Civil War is a sequel to Winter Soldier, a film which even after Avengers effect barely passed $700m WW, just a bit more than MoS, even being quite more praised than MoS. However, I do not see any doubt here about Civil War explosion well beyond 1 billion. Why? because it is not a simple sequel. It is another thing. So, I do not get the doubts about BvS, considering it is EXACTLY the same format than CW.

The only reference we have is MoS, as it comes from the same franchise. Civil War can be more considered as a sequel of The Avengers than BvS as a sequel of TDKR, because Civil War is part of the MCU, and MoS is not part of TDKR universe. Considering TDKR as a reference for BvS is just like using Hotel Transylvania to predict Victor Frankenstein's BO just because both include Frankenstein as a character.

 

The difference with Civil War is that previous film (Winter Soldier) had a great acceptance among both audiences and crtics so it will help Civil War's BO, unlike MoS, which acceptance will probably have a negative effect on BvS.

[peludo]

9 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

The only reference we have is MoS, as it comes from the same franchise. Civil War can be more considered as a sequel of The Avengers than BvS as a sequel of TDKR, because Civil War is part of the MCU, and MoS is not part of TDKR universe. Considering TDKR as a reference for BvS is just like using Hotel Transylvania to predict Victor Frankenstein's BO just because both include Frankenstein as a character.

 

The difference with Civil War is that previous film (Winter Soldier) had a great acceptance among both audiences and crtics so it will help Civil War's BO, unlike MoS, which acceptance will probably have a negative effect on BvS.

Well, in early 2012, before TA release, we could argue too that Avengers was going to have a bad behaviour because previous films like Iron Man 2 or Thor were awful and look what happened. Some people here are supposing that the film will be awful and that is a bit presumptuous.

 

And you must have into account that Winter Soldier, with the boost of Avengers, 8 previous films that had already built the MCU, and having excellence critics and acceptance, just had a mere 2.7 multiplier in US, which it is not something spectacular, and barely $50m more WW than the awful MoS, which was the beginning of the DCU. 

 

Said this, it is clear we will not agree on this topic, so better to wait until late March and see what happens. IMHO, BvS will get closer numbers to Avengers than to MoS.

Edited November 11, 2015 by peludo

[Jessie]

15 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I feel like everyone is overpredicting BvS just like it happenned with Man of Steel a few years ago (many expected it top become one of the highest of all time). But my reasons to predict it this low are the fact that many people didn't like the first movie, and many others don't agree with Affleck as Batman.

 

No-one expected MOS to become one of the highest grossing of all time. It actually ended right where people had it pegged, and had the potential to earn so much more if it were actually good.

[Jessie]

Out of all the CBM's coming out next year, Suicide Squad seems to have the most interest from the GA, I cant belive how low some of you are expecting it to make WW, someone put 450m? lmao, its more likely to make that domestic than WW

[Bastien]

 

Here are the top 10 which was then considered by the sixteen members who posted their prognosis last year:

 

 

vs

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 11, 2015 by BastienGiot

[bapi]

16 hours ago, Safeno Rdz said:

If we've learned something from last couple year's box office is that brand recognition alone won't do wonders anymore, specially Batman, that has been a little overexposed during the last decade, and Bale's Batman is very recent, so it will be hard for audiences to accept someone else (I think it could go through something similar to what happenned with Garfield's spiderman).

 

 

Or remember Quantum of Solace... some people were saying that movie destroyed what Campbell built and then Skyfall arrived and showed +91% increase worldwide.

[bapi]

And I'm sure people will say "Snyder can't make a movie as good as Skyfall". That's probably true but with Affleck and Terrio involved I would be absolutely shocked if BvS is not better than Man of Steel.

[bapi]

2 hours ago, Jessie said:

Out of all the CBM's coming out next year, Suicide Squad seems to have the most interest from the GA, I cant belive how low some of you are expecting it to make WW, someone put 450m? lmao, its more likely to make that domestic than WW

I agree. When I check trailer views on YT (WB channel+Movieclips Trailers channel) then that first BvS teaser trailer has 73.5M views and the Comic Con one has 60.8M. And compare it to Suicide Squad - 79.8M!!! And mainly things have changed... Yes, 10-12 years ago you could say that the internet reactions mean nothing but now with Twitter, Facebook, YouTube or iTunes... Everything's different now.

[James]

1. Batman v Superman – 500/900 /1400

2. Captain America: CW – 430/900/1330

3. Finding Dory – 440/810/1250

4. Fantastic Beasts – 305/900/1205

5. Rogue One – 370/650/1020

6. Suicide Squad – 400/600/1000

7. Kung Fu Panda 3 – 200/800/1000

8. Ice Age 5 – 150/720/870

9. X-Men: Apocalypse – 225/625/850

10. Independence Day 2 – 220/600/820

11. Alice 2 – 200/600/800

12. The Secret Life of Pets – 250/450/700

13. Moana – 260/440/700

14. Zootopia – 200/350/550

15. Star Trek – 215/315/530

16. Jungle Book – 200/320/520

17. Turtles 2 – 160/350/510

18. Inferno – 145/360/505

19. Bourne – 200/300/500

20. Doctor Strange – 190/300/490

[Safeno Rdz]

On 11/11/2015 3:32:14, peludo said:

Well, in early 2012, before TA release, we could argue too that Avengers was going to have a bad behaviour because previous films like Iron Man 2 or Thor were awful and look what happened. Some people here are supposing that the film will be awful and that is a bit presumptuous.

 

And you must have into account that Winter Soldier, with the boost of Avengers, 8 previous films that had already built the MCU, and having excellence critics and acceptance, just had a mere 2.7 multiplier in US, which it is not something spectacular, and barely $50m more WW than the awful MoS, which was the beginning of the DCU. 

 

Said this, it is clear we will not agree on this topic, so better to wait until late March and see what happens. IMHO, BvS will get closer numbers to Avengers than to MoS.

I would say it was actually the oppossite for Iron Man 2, which had pretty good reviews that helped the performance of The Avengers. I'm not saying the film will be awful, I'm actually pretty excited about it, I just don't think it will be a hit at the box office.

 

But yeah, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree and wait.

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Safeno Rdz said:

I would say it was actually the oppossite for Iron Man 2, which had pretty good reviews that helped the performance of The Avengers. I'm not saying the film will be awful, I'm actually pretty excited about it, I just don't think it will be a hit at the box office.

 

But yeah, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree and wait.

IM2 had better reviews than MoS, but nothing special. A 72% on RT is not exactly an extremely well reviewed film. And film's legs show that people did not support that theory. A mere 2.43 multiplier with way less competition than MoS can not be considered a good augure, not only for Avengers, but for nothing. In fact, nobody saw coming the Avengers success, and forecasts and predictions before release were a bit more than half than it finally did.

 

Concerning IM2 and MoS, both films opened exactly equal (128), and although IM2 grossed 20 million more than MoS, we should analyze the competition each film had before claim a better reception.

 

If we consider openers that each film faced we have that IM2 faced Robin Hood ($105m) and Letters to Juliet (53) in the 2nd wknd, Shrek 4 (238) in the 3rd, Sex and the city 2 (95) and Prince of Persia (90) in the 4th, and Get him to the Greek (60) and Killers (47) in the 5th...

 

MoS faced Monsters University (268) and World War Z (202) in the 2nd wknd, The Heat (159) and Whit House Down (73) in the 3rd, Despicable me 2 (368) and Lone Ranger (89) in the 4th, and Grown ups 2 (133) and Pacific Rim (101) in the 5th.

 

Those IM2 competitors opening during the next 4 weeks grossed $688m cume. MoS competitors during the same period grossed $1.393 billion. Many times competition is undervalued saying that each film makes what deserves, no matter what it faces, but to suffer $700m more of competition during the same period can not be dismissed.

 

IMO, BvS has the same chances or more to explode than Avengers taking into account precedents. If the film is awful, then it will make meh numbers, but if it is good enough, the sky is the limit.

[MovieMan89]

Whatever the big hits are, I must say 2016's mega bombs already appear crystal clear: Gods of Egypt, The Huntsman, Warcraft, and Tarzan.