Weekend Estimates (pg49): Mockingjay 101M | Spectre 14.6M | Night Before 10.1M | SITE 6.63M

[John Marston]

Also, what about those Wednesday double features? Do they count toward this number?

[Spidey Freak]

7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Another good reminder to people that it is not only the "badly received" movies that have sequels that decrease 

 

This is a very unique case. The two movies with the Games did exceptionally well and the two movies based on the book without the Games decreased. In a very weird way, the spectacle and thrill of the actual "Hunger Games" were the franchise's bigger pulls and the actual nitty gritty (war, revolution) weren't as appealing. In short, moviegoing audiences are like the shallow Capitol citizens and easily distracted masses.  

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, grim22 said:

It is somewhat amazing how MJ1 managed to reduce the series' box office potential so much. The split will work out better for Lionsgate but it would have definitely been interesting to see what a single Mockingjay movie would have done following the great reception of CF and a big promotional push as "The finale".

 

One, extra Catching Fire is less profitable than two Mockingjays.

[Lordmandeep]

It's true the hunger games only appeal to wider audiences was the novelty of the games. What would have CF done if it did not advertise THG all star edition?

 

We have been overwhelmed by post apocalyptic YA films with insurgent and scorch trials...

 

These concepts are not as interesting as the games in the first two hunger game movies.

[Joel M]

Even if it ends up lower than MJ1 it still won't convince studios to not split final parts. Let's say MJ2 does 690m WW (lower than THG1), if you add the 755 of MJ1 you get almost 1,5 billion. I bet that's a lot more than what the hypothetical uber-hyped, well-reviewed single MJ movie will do.

 

The same applies to Divergent with much smaller numbers. Even if the last two drop from Insurgent both DOM and OS they 'll still end up close to or over 500m WW. Single movie Divergent 3 would never come close to that.

[grim22]

5 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

This is a very unique case. The two movies with the Games did exceptionally well and the two movies based on the book without the Games decreased. In a very weird way, the spectacle and thrill of the actual "Hunger Games" were the franchise's bigger pulls and the actual nitty gritty (war, revolution) weren't as appealing. In short, moviegoing audiences are like the shallow Capitol citizens and easily distracted masses.  

 

I don't think it was that, Me and the wife watched THG on its 3rd weekend and CF on the day it was released. But with MJ1, neither of us wanted to see it because we felt "It doesn't even tell a full story", and this was prior to reviews or the underwhelming OW and that same inertia carried over to MJ2 where the thought was "Well, we didn't see the first one, so we may be lost". Lionsgate did drop the ball on marketing badly, even Hangover 3 advertised itself as "The end of the saga".

[John Marston]

in addition to being a rather uneventful movie, MJ1 also ended with that awful Lorde song. Probably pissed people off even more

[pepsa]

4 minutes ago, Joel M said:

Even if it ends up lower than MJ1 it still won't convince studios to not split final parts. Let's say MJ2 does 690m WW (lower than THG1), if you add the 755 of MJ1 you get almost 1,5 billion. I bet that's a lot more than what the hypothetical uber-hyped, well-reviewed single MJ movie will do.

 

The same applies to Divergent with much smaller numbers. Even if the last two drop from Insurgent both DOM and OS they 'll still end up close to or over 500m WW. Single movie Divergent 3 would never come close to that.

 

You are probably right, but it also cost 2x more to make and to advertise. So it woudn't make that much difference I think (if the solo MJ would have done 1B)

[CJohn]

Bwahahahaha wtf. This franchise is the weirdest thing ever. 

[The Futurist]

When the first HG was released, I fought the final movie would do 450m dom because finale etc ... those were the days...

[John Marston]

main disappointment is the China gross. It will barely increase there from the previous one

[The Futurist]

I just want to point out that OS grosses never mattered to Lionsgate. Whether it does 300M os or 500m os doesn't change a thing for them.

They don't distribute those films OS, they sold the rights everywhere and we don't have those numbers.

Only the dom gross matters to them.

Just a friendly reminder.

[Fullbuster]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

main disappointment is the China gross. It will barely increase there from the previous one

Indeed, it was its biggest hope to offset lower grosses that could happen DOM and Latin America and Europe, at least it was seen that way.

[The Futurist]

2 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Indeed, it was its biggest hope to offset lower grosses that could happen DOM and Latin America and Europe, at least it was seen that way.

 

AS I said the China gross doesn't matter to Lionsgate.

[Joel M]

9 minutes ago, pepsa said:

 

You are probably right, but it also cost 2x more to make and to advertise. So it woudn't make that much difference I think (if the solo MJ would have done 1B)

 

maybe percentage-wise the profits are pretty close, but i think studios care more about having as much more sure things on their yearly schedules as possible than getting the single uber-hit.

 

If MJ is one world conquering billion dollar grosser, Lionsgate is popping champaigns in November 2014 and by new years they are already panicking about November 2015.

 

With MJ1 and MJ2 they 're still popping champaigns in 2015 and the dread of what happens after their uber franchise is over gets hold back until early 2016

[Fullbuster]

 

3 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

AS I said the China gross doesn't matter to Lionsgate.

I know, but I'm a box office follower, not one of Lionsgate's shareholders so I'm still interested in its BO numbers. ;)

[John Marston]

splitting the books financially is still a good idea. Especially for LionsGate who don't have many other franchises

[The Futurist]

I remember when the guys from Wall Street expected Catching Fire to do 950m WW ...

[grim22]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

splitting the books financially is still a good idea. Especially for LionsGate who don't have many other franchises

 

They are going to run it into the ground as much as possible

 

 

 

[Joel M]

13 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

I just want to point out that OS grosses never mattered to Lionsgate. Whether it does 300M os or 500m os doesn't change a thing for them.

They don't distribute those films OS, they sold the rights everywhere and we don't have those numbers.

Only the dom gross matters to them.

Just a friendly reminder.

 

If it's a seperate negotiaton every year they still matter. We don't know the exact numbers but I think they sold CF rights much higher than THG, and then MJ1 rights even higher as a result of CFs much bigger OS success.