DOCTOR STRANGE | 445.1 M overseas ● 677.7 M worldwide

[Gavin Feng]

12 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Thank you @Gavin Feng

Is it correct to say as the Chinese audience knows a film will get pulled, they tend to watch it preferably earlier, the last days / last week being often more or less dead?

The proportion of screen showings drop quickly because of the ideal of arrangement.

 

When the new blockbusters open, cinema staffs always like to give 35-40%(about 77k-88k showings, sometimes more) to them by cutting old films' showings.

 

DS had 36%-40%(77k-89k) on the first 7 days.

 

20%-26%(50k-55k) on the next 7 days because of the opening of Billy Lynn and One Piece Film Gold.

 

10%-17%(23k-34k) on the third 7 days when Madame Bovary came.

 

2.5%-4%(5k-7.5k) on the fourth 7 days by Fantastic Beasts(hurt by Your Name and Miss Peregrine now) and Moana.

 

0.2%(433-475) on the final 3 days with the same reason of FB.

 

As far as I know, the proportion of blockbusters’ showings(including The Avengers) won’t be more than 15% at any time. So they made record in that situation and won’t face the problem of cutting showings.

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

The proportion of screen showings drop quickly because of the ideal of arrangement.

 

When the new blockbusters open, cinema staffs always like to give 35-40%(about 77k-88k showings, sometimes more) to them by cutting old films' showings.

 

DS had 36%-40%(77k-89k) on the first 7 days.

 

20%-26%(50k-55k) on the next 7 days because of the opening of Billy Lynn and One Piece Film Gold.

 

10%-17%(23k-34k) on the third 7 days when Madame Bovary came.

 

2.5%-4%(5k-7.5k) on the fourth 7 days by Fantastic Beasts(hurt by Your Name and Miss Peregrine now) and Moana.

 

0.2%(433-475) on the final 3 days with the same reason of FB.

 

As far as I know, the proportion of blockbusters’ showings(including The Avengers) won’t be more than 15% at any time. So they made record in that situation and won’t face the problem of cutting showings.

Thank you, that is an interesting view on the release patterns / theatre count changes ....

 

What I meant in addition to what you answered (a part is answered):

Chinese audience knows how the cinema staffs handle the spread of the available screens, how they change fast and so on. Nothing like in the US, where for lets say 2 weeks the theaters have to show the same film, if contracted as such, no matter how good or bad it runs.

So if the Chinese GA knows that, can not be sure the film will be offered in a nearer cinema or at all in the greater region fast, wouldn't people planing to watch a film try to watch it as early as possible (= within the first week), and as such films in China seem to behave way more front-loaded as a standard

Front-loaded = like in the US it would be called if a film behaves in such a way. As in considerable.

I think the system to change so fast the theatre counts furthers even more the front-loading we see growingly also in other countries as well, and I am not happy about it, as a mistake in advertising, sometimes too many releases at the same times... more or less can doom a film to simple.

 

In the hope now it is more clear what I meant and thank you again for trying to help me to understand / be sure about impressions and thoughts.

[Gavin Feng]

36 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Thank you, that is an interesting view on the release patterns / theatre count changes ....

 

What I meant in addition to what you answered (a part is answered):

Chinese audience knows how the cinema staffs handle the spread of the available screens, how they change fast and so on. Nothing like in the US, where for lets say 2 weeks the theaters have to show the same film, if contracted as such, no matter how good or bad it runs.

So if the Chinese GA knows that, can not be sure the film will be offered in a nearer cinema or at all in the greater region fast, wouldn't people planing to watch a film try to watch it as early as possible (= within the first week), and as such films in China seem to behave way more front-loaded as a standard

Front-loaded = like in the US it would be called if a film behaves in such a way. As in considerable.

I think the system to change so fast the theatre counts furthers even more the front-loading we see growingly also in other countries as well, and I am not happy about it, as a mistake in advertising, sometimes too many releases at the same times... more or less can doom a film to simple.

 

In the hope now it is more clear what I meant and thank you again for trying to help me to understand / be sure about impressions and thoughts.

I don’t know how to understand and discuss those difficult questions in English.You can ask me with more simple language if you don’t mind.

 

Many of my friends don’t know much about screen showings. And they don’t know much about what film are they showing until they come to the cinema. 

[terrestrial]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

I don’t know how to understand and discuss those difficult questions in English.You can ask me with more simple language if you don’t mind.

My problem is, I try to describe what I ant to say in English, as I usually do not know the correct terms = my text gets ~ bloated / too big

 

My English is mostly self-trained, I do understand a lot, but wording is even more difficult for me, never had someone here in RL to correct my tries.

 

Thank you for your answers, I try to be wording better the next time a question arises

 

 

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

My problem is, I try to describe what I ant to say in English, as I usually do not know the correct terms = my text gets ~ bloated / too big

 

My English is mostly self-trained, I do understand a lot, but wording is even more difficult for me, never had someone here in RL to correct my tries.

 

Thank you for your answers, I try to be wording better the next time a question arises

 

 

Your English is good. Hope you won’t think that I did blame you.And I admire self-trained guy(I have a hard time about learning English in Junior and never dreamed that one day I can discuss those questions with all of you).

 

I don’t know if the answer I gave is what you wanna. I really really really hope that I can clear your mind as long as I understand exactly the meaning.

[kayumanggi]

419.6 M overseas | 634.9 M worldwide

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, Gavin Feng said:

Your English is good. Hope you won’t think that I did blame you.And I admire self-trained guy(I have a hard time about learning English in Junior and never dreamed that one day I can discuss those questions with all of you).

 

I don’t know if the answer I gave is what you wanna. I really really really hope that I can clear your mind as long as I understand exactly the meaning.

the guy is a gal (not sure if gal os correct to use for someone in a grandparents age)

 

My theory is, what in the US is called frontloaded = a high part of the total within the ~ first week, is the normal in China.

Reasons:

in China cinema staff can change the theater counts by themselfs. And because the Chinese people by experience know a film they learn is today in a cinema in their region, it might not be in the cinema 1 or 2 weeks later.

In the US a film can be running / getting shown in a cinema theoretically even 4 months or later/longer, so in the US there is less 'need' to go soon.

 I hope it is now more clear, if yes, do you agree to my theory?

 

[Finnick]

Doctor Strange updated with actuals @ Dec, 04 2016, Mora than 0.7M than estimated numbers.

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic:  $215,507,729    33.9% + Foreign:  $420,084,819    66.1% = Worldwide:  $635,592,548

Edited December 5, 2016 by Finnick

[Gavin Feng]

7 hours ago, terrestrial said:

the guy is a gal (not sure if gal os correct to use for someone in a grandparents age)

 

My theory is, what in the US is called frontloaded = a high part of the total within the ~ first week, is the normal in China.

Reasons:

in China cinema staff can change the theater counts by themselfs. And because the Chinese people by experience know a film they learn is today in a cinema in their region, it might not be in the cinema 1 or 2 weeks later.

In the US a film can be running / getting shown in a cinema theoretically even 4 months or later/longer, so in the US there is less 'need' to go soon.

 I hope it is now more clear, if yes, do you agree to my theory?

 

 

Many lifelong fans would like to go cinema early and the reasons is what you said(it might not be in the cinema 1 or 2 weeks later).

 

Some of the rest(especially general audience) still don’t have that awareness and may watch another film if no showings for what they wanted to in correct time. They don’t think they must watch this and it will be fine for them to watch any film which shows in right time.

[terrestrial]

21 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Many lifelong fans would like to go cinema early and the reasons is what you said(it might not be in the cinema 1 or 2 weeks later).

Some of the rest(especially general audience) still don’t have that awareness and may watch another film if no showings for what they wanted to in correct time. They don’t think they must watch this and it will be fine for them to watch any film which shows in right time.

That was exactly, what I tried to learn / find out, thank you a lot again

 

I  the forum, so many differing countries, insights, opinions, generations,... so much to learn here

[terrestrial]

BOM did an week-day update for DS

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$217,731,446	34.0%
+ Foreign:	$422,100,000	66.0%
= Worldwide:	$639,831,446

 

 

means only $4.8m are missing to reach Thor 2's ww

 

I guess it could happen this weekend.

 

And then the long wait for 27 January starts = the release date in Japan

 

ww:

7	Thor 2		$644.6	$206.4	32%	$438.2	68%	2013
8	Dr Strange		$639.8	$217.7	34%	$422.1	66%	2016

 

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by terrestrial

[chrisman0606]

@terrestrial I feel like once it surpasses Thor 2, then that will be it b/c the chances of surpassing TWS are low and I do not believe Japan will not be that huge, b/c average solo movie start for MCU films are around $6-10 million their so basically it worldwide gross will be a sub-700 million.

Edited December 9, 2016 by chrisman0606

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, terrestrial said:

BOM did an week-day update for DS

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$217,731,446	34.0%
+ Foreign:	$422,100,000	66.0%
= Worldwide:	$639,831,446

 

 

means only $4.8m are missing to reach Thor 2's ww

 

I guess it could happen this weekend.

 

And then the long wait for 27 January starts = the release date in Japan

 

ww:

7	Thor 2		$644.6	$206.4	32%	$438.2	68%	2013
8	Dr Strange		$639.8	$217.7	34%	$422.1	66%	2016

 

 

 

Holds were strong enough during the weekdays that a domestic weekend gross of $4M+ could happen. The openers are looking to do maybe $20M combined and the drop in theatre count was low. I'm pretty sure overseas can manage $1M.

Edited December 10, 2016 by kswiston

[terrestrial]

10 minutes ago, chrisman0606 said:

@terrestrial I feel like once it surpasses Thor 2, then that will be it b/c the chances of surpassing TWS are low and I do not believe Japan will not be that huge, b/c average solo movie start for MCU films are around $6-10 million their so basically it worldwide gross will be a sub-700 million.

I never thought it might reach $700m, I hoped for far less than it already reached, so here why the Japan income is still interesting to me:

DS has a chance to / will

1. reach the top 100 ww list (even of it wont stay there for years...)

2. to reach / surpass some pretty big names on the ww all time list

3. it has a slight chance to reach Man of Steel, that might get some fanatics to react not well, even if probably far less than during the times of  the Nolan trilogy. I do not mean here at BOT, I mean at websites like IMDb or worse. Slight based also on I am expecting DS to loose a lot of screens for SW R1 and some other reasons.

 

DS should end on #9 of the MCU chart for dom, #7 for ww (see the MCU ww example in the post you reacted to), and at least on #8 for OS, where it is already

 

rank	OS	title	ww	dom
1	$946.4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$1,405.4	$459.0
2	$895.5	Marvel's The Avengers	$1,518.8	$623.4
3	$805.8	Iron Man 3	$1,214.8	$409.0
4	$745.2	Captain America: Civil War	$1,153.3	$408.1
5	$454.5	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$714.3	$259.8
6	$440.2	Guardians of the Galaxy	$773.3	$333.2
7	$438.2	Thor: The Dark World	$644.6	$206.4
8	$422.1	Doctor Strange	$639.8	$217.7
9	$339.1	Ant-Man	$519.3	$180.2
10	$311.5	Iron Man 2	$623.9	$312.4
11	$268.3	Thor	$449.3	$181.0
12	$266.8	Iron Man	$585.2	$318.4
13	$193.9	Captain America: The First Avenger	$370.6	$176.7
14	$128.6	The Incredible Hulk	$263.4	$134.8

 

ww top 100 of all time

 

90	Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation		$682.3	$195.0	28.6%	$487.3	71.4%	2015
91	Forrest Gump		$677.9	$330.3	48.7%	$347.7	51.3%	1994^
92	Interstellar		$675.1	$188.0	27.8%	$487.1	72.2%	2014
93	The Sixth Sense		$672.8	$293.5	43.6%	$379.3	56.4%	1999
94	Man of Steel		$668.0	$291.0	43.6%	$377.0	56.4%	2013
95	Kung Fu Panda 2		$665.7	$165.2	24.8%	$500.4	75.2%	2011
96	Ice Age: The Meltdown		$660.9	$195.3	29.6%	$465.6	70.4%	2006
97	Big Hero 6		$657.8	$222.5	33.8%	$435.3	66.2%	2014
98	Pirates o.t.Caribb. Curse o.t.Black Pearl		$654.3	$305.4	46.7%	$348.9	53.3%	2003
99	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2		$653.4	$281.7	43.1%	$371.7	56.9%	2015
100	Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones		$649.4	$310.7	47.8%	$338.7	52.2%	2002^

[terrestrial]

9 minutes ago, kswiston said:

Holds were strong enough during the weekdays that a domestic weekend gross of $4M+ could happen. The openers are looking to do maybe $20M combined and the drop in theatre count was low. I'm pretty sure overseas can manage $1M.

Agree, IMHO the holds for dom this week were rather nice.

I've seen w/e predictions between ~ $3.6m and $4.3m (BOM) for dom, and I think too OS might earn a bit still.

 

I am always a bit cautious, sometimes weather goes crazy, or... I am never sure about future BO .

[kayumanggi]

422.1 M overseas | 641.0 M worldwide

[terrestrial]

As of 11 December 2016

 

(Japan release at 27 January)

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$222,362,446	34.4%
+ Foreign:	$423,400,000	65.6%
= Worldwide:	$645,762,446

 

 

MCU ww chart

7	Doctor Strange		$645.8	$222.4	34.4%	$423.4	65.6%	2016
8	Thor 2		$644.6	$206.4	32%	$438.2	68%	2013

[kswiston]

So $10-15M more domestic (depending on how well Strange weathers Rogue One next weekend). Maybe $2M from OS holdovers, and then whatever Japan manages. 

 

$660M on the low end. $675M will require a pretty good (for an MCU film) run in Japan and continued good legs domestically

Edited December 11, 2016 by kswiston

[Quigley]

I think that $675M is a good target, since it's what Interstellar grossed. I can't see less than $15M from existing markets (incl US), so it will need less than $15M in Japan to achieve this.

[terrestrial]

3 hours ago, kswiston said:

So $10-15M more domestic (depending on how well Strange weathers Rogue One next weekend). Maybe $2M from OS holdovers, and then whatever Japan manages. 

 

$660M on the low end. $675M will require a pretty good (for an MCU film) run in Japan and continued good legs domestically

 

33 minutes ago, Quigley said:

I think that $675M is a good target, since it's what Interstellar grossed. I can't see less than $15M from existing markets (incl US), so it will need less than $15M in Japan to achieve this.

 

I think it might or not reach Man of Steel (~$668m), but who knows, we might get surprised