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BOT User Tracking 12/4-6 Krampus, The Letters

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Ok, I'm back, sorry for the disruptions. I'm collating the last couple weeks and will be putting up the results as soon as I'm done. In the meanwhile, time for predictions for arguably the weakest weekend for new openers of the year. I'm not at all confident it'll actually be the weakest or least interesting weekend because there is ferocious competition for that title. But I fully expect this one to be right up there.


Which is totally fine, because the last couple weekends have been pretty rocking, and every weekend after this through the end of the year should be at a minimum intriguing.


Please provide your 12/4 - 6 Opening Weekend predicts for:


The Letters



Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

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21 hours ago, BourneFan #1 said:

What is The Letters?


Apparently something about Mother Teresa. Opening on around 1,000 screens.


Edit - Entertainingly, Mother Teresa was actually born in the Ottoman Empire, because she was old enough for that to have still been around when she was born. By today's standards, she was born in Macedonia.

Edited by Wrath
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A brief moment of silence for the ending of ComingSoon.net's Weekend Warrior who has hung up his box-office predicting keyboard after 12 years. Any suggestions for a replacement predictor?


Alright, enough of that, onto the important stuff where I admit that I was wrong.  Wrong! The opposite of right! In my prediction on this being the weekend with the lowest number of BOT predictors. In fact, it wasn't even close, and the honor is retained by the Sept 4th Labor Day. It was a fine weekend which none of us probably remember, during which A Walk in the Woods and the rebooted Transporter failed to top War Room's second weekend. As a final idea of what kind of weekend it was, "Un Gallo con Muchos Huevos" was in the top 10. This weekend should be a little more interesting, though that's a really low bar to get over.


Anyway, our prediction on Krampus is a little pessimistic and our prediction on The Letters is, I guess, in the middle. Seems odd Krampus's reviews are still embargoed. Isn't Thursday afternoon a little late to keep things bottled up? I'm starting to think that's a bad sign rather than a good sign.


As usual, I went through the various predicts (18 for Krampus, 13 for The Letters) and here's what we ended up with:



Mean: 11.1M

Median: 10.8M

StnDev: 3.44M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 31.44%

High:  18M

Low: 5M


BO.com 14.5M

ComingSoon.com dead 

Deadline 11.5M

ScreenRant.com 14.5M 

Variety 12M



The Letters

Mean: 1.4M

Median: 1.4M

StnDev: 0.53M

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.45%

High: 2M

Low 0.6M




Deadline 1.3M


Variety 1.9M

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Prediction: 11.1M +/- 3.44M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 16.3M (off by 5.2M, so 1.52 stndev)

For once we went low and it bit us in the butt. Not a terrible predict, but certainly not good, either. Who knew campy holiday horror/comedy would resonate with audiences? BO.com kinda knew, but that's pretty much it. Best predict was at $16M by DamienRoc. So I guess DamienRoc knew, too.


The Letters

Prediction: 1.4M +/- 0.53M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 0.7M (off by 0.7M, so 1.28 stndev)

Bleh. These super-low ones are complete crapshoots and only Variety and Deadline actually posted predicts so I almost dumped this one. In the future, if a movie goes Wide but only barely I'll probably only include it if its reasonably high profile. For example, I'm happy to include Legend, even if it technically misses being wide, because its pretty well known. But The Letters pretty obviously wasn't going to make it over that bar. This does mean that we will occasionally miss a movie that ends up being noteworthy, but hopefully it'll only happy a few times per year. The best predict was by TalismanRing at $0.7M. In fact, TalismanRing was off by $683, which will probably stand as our closest predict for quite some time.

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