Michael Gary Scott Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Three horse race? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Stingray Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Three horse race?Two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lincoln-ZDT-Les Miz.Les Miz is squarely back in the race IMO, RT-score be damned. Box office is enormous, and AMPAS is likely lapping it up as we speak. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 AMPAS is always more likely to love a musical than critics, especially one that is such a massive hit. Les Mis is right up there with ZDT and Lincoln, with Argo, SLP, Django, and LOP still having spoiler chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UptoLight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Make-Up - LincolnBest Actress, Editing - Zero Dark ThirtyBest Supporting Actress - Les MisérablesBest Original Screenplay - Django UnchainedBest Cinematography, Original Score, Visual Effects - Life of PiBest Original Song, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing - SkyfallBest Art Direction, Costume Design - Anna KareninaBest Animated Film - FrankenweenieLincoln - 6Life of Pi - 3Skyfall - 3ZDT - 2Anna Karenina - 2Django - 1Les Mis - 1Frankenweenie - 1Most nominations without a win - Silver Linings Playbook (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and likely Actor), The Master (Picture, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Art Direction and maybe Actor). Unless the latter gets shut out in Picture, Art Direction and acting categories save for PSH.it looks accurate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And Les Mis swims in a big way. It's totally back now, especially if it makes 200+m DOM and hundreds more OS, I doubt they can ignore it. Especially since they love it already. SAG ensemble and PGA aren't out of the question. BAFTA and GG are mere formalities. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest BP odds from the British bookies.http://www.easyodds....st-picture.htmlNo surprises as Lincoln is #1 with almost even odds. The only mild surprise for me is that Les Miz is beating ZDT for #2.Les Miserables beating Argo? :rofl:The real contenders are Lincoln and Argo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The fact it's OD indicates a DOM run +200m is really astonishing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Les Miserables beating Argo? :rofl:The real contenders are Lincoln and Argo!Argo's been dead for god knows how long now. It's buzz peaked way too early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah argo has no chance and thats someone who loved the movie saying it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah argo has no chance and thats someone who loved the movie saying it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah argo has no chance and thats someone who loved the movie saying it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeCee Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm wondering what chance Argo has. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm wondering what chance Argo has.It needs a major upset win to be back in the serious conversation for the win. Right now it's sitting at less than 5% at best. Win is probably right now between Les Mis and Lincoln. Zero Dark Thirty by virtue of buzz should be in serious conversation for the win, but it missed SAG ensemble and that puts a pretty definitive stopper on your chances of winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pieman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ZDT isn't in this race. It's not the type of movie the Academy usually are drawn towards. It is a lock for a nomination however. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ZDT isn't in this race. It's not the type of movie the Academy usually are drawn towards. It is a lock for a nomination however.Hurt Locker wasn't an Academy movie either along with The Departed, NYCFOM, and etc. It would've had a fighting chance against the 2 frontrunners, but not with a ensemble snub. that's practically a death blow. Only one film has ever won without it, and that was in the first year of the SAGs where ensemble actually meant ensemble. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The newer films are really stealing Argo's thunder. Quite a shame. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CloneWars Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hurt Locker wasn't an Academy movie either along with The Departed, NYCFOM, and etc. It would've had a fighting chance against the 2 frontrunners, but not with a ensemble snub. that's practically a death blow. Only one film has ever won without it, and that was in the first year of the SAGs where ensemble actually meant ensemble.While I am also super confident that ZDT is not winning. Way to controversial IMO. The thing is that the screeners got out to SAG members the week that their ballots were due. I heard many of them didn't actually see the film before casting their nominations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riczhang Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 While I am also super confident that ZDT is not winning. Way to controversial IMO. The thing is that the screeners got out to SAG members the week that their ballots were due. I heard many of them didn't actually see the film before casting their nominations.I've actually heard the contrary. It hit SAG exactly 5 days before the deadline, and for a buzzed movie that's more than enough time for voters to see it before casting ballots. I did hear that it was kind of divisive. There are people who loved it and people who felt it was clinical and in the Guild's mind therefore not good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockNrollaDIM Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Argo was a bit of a bore. In hindsight it's really not as memorable as Affleck's two other directorial efforts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
