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Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)

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35 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

For movies released starting this year the international details list at The-Numbers.com is now rather good.

But they are not fast with updates and late in the runs updates too

Indonesia is listed there too, as sum per movie and as weekend performace per movie:

 

Example Furious 7:

country - release date - OW - OW theater - max. theater - theatrical eng. - total BO - report date (last)

Indonesia  4/1/2015   $6,627,176   596   596   2299   $16,768,758   7/23/2015

Weekend Box Office Performance

Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days
2015/04/03 2 $6,627,176   596 $11,119   $6,627,176   5
2015/04/03 1 $6,627,176   596 $11,119   $6,624,591   5
2015/04/10 1 $4,452,461   -33% 548 $8,125   $12,749,168     12
2015/04/17 1 $2,057,653   -54% 393 $5,236   $15,727,845 19
2015/04/24 2 $325,134   -84% 71 $4,579   $16,382,608 26
2015/05/01 2 $176,499   -46% 49 $3,602   $16,629,620 33
2015/05/08 2 $50,960   -71% 31 $1,644   $16,703,910 40
2015/05/15 3 $35,423   -30% 15 $2,362   $16,768,758 47

 

Thanks for the heads up! Heading there to get some numbers.

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I think you can bet on less than a 10% fall today, unless storms keep people home...but whatever the number ends up being, I'm thinking a 10% drop to say 29.5 mill (if 33 is correct)

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11 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Does this guarantee SW7 beating Avatar before this weekend?

 

No.  And it's touch and go for the 3rd as well.  I think it will be close but ultimately I think it passes Avatar on Sunday or Monday.  

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6 minutes ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

Wow.. 30m seriously??? That's huge for the first Mon let alone the second one.

 

Is SW7 going to lose theatres this weekend?

 

If you are the highest grossing film by a mile, that theaters have seen in a very very long time, would you remove SW from your theater and replace it with anything?

 

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6 minutes ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

Wow.. 30m seriously??? That's huge for the first Mon let alone the second one.

 

Is SW7 going to lose theatres this weekend?

 

If you are the highest grossing film by a mile, that theaters have seen in a very very long time, would you remove SW from your theater and replace it with anything?

 

Well, sometimes theaters don't have a choice, right? Because they have to put other movies in. That's not the case tought...

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7 minutes ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

Wow.. 30m seriously??? That's huge for the first Mon let alone the second one.

 

Is SW7 going to lose theatres this weekend?

According to their description there BOM usually updates their theater count estimates Thursday afternoon, I think they are PST.

Maybe bcs of the holidays... they do it earlier? Fingers crossed.

But with those numbers only loss might be based on past contracts of the cinemas woth other studios.

IMAX I think I read about 1 month run, but there might be split with other movies too, there will be members here who follow IMAX details (I am not)

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1 minute ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

If you are the highest grossing film by a mile, that theaters have seen in a very very long time, would you remove SW from your theater and replace it with anything?

 

If there're new releases they have to take theatres from the holdovers right? And they can't take anything from last week new releases so...:P I don't think it's going to lose a lot but it's certainly going to lose some screens. Not that it matters anyway as long as people still want to see it.

 

I know 3rd weekend record is almost a sure thing but is 100m third weekend even on the table? Cos that would be beyond epic.:thinking::lol:

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6 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

Well, sometimes theaters don't have a choice, right? Because they have to put other movies in. That's not the case tought...

 

Of course they have a choice.  There are dozens of other movies that can be replaced.  Anything that opened before Christmas would lose screens before SW does.

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3 minutes ago, KATCH-2D2 said:

If there're new releases they have to take theatres from the holdovers right? And they can't take anything from last week new releases so...:P I don't think it's going to lose a lot but it's certainly going to lose some screens. Not that it matters anyway as long as people still want to see it.

 

I know 3rd weekend record is almost a sure thing but is 100m third weekend even on the table? Cos that would be beyond epic.:thinking::lol:

 

Take Avatar for example, it didn't lose any screens until the holidays were over.

 

Dec 18–20 1 $77,025,481 - 3,452 - $22,313 $77,025,481 1
Dec 25–27 1 $75,617,183 -1.8% 3,456 +4 $21,880 $212,711,184 2


2010

Date
(click to view chart)
Rank Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#
Jan 1–3 1 $68,490,688 -9.4% 3,461 +5 $19,789 $352,114,898 3
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30 minutes ago, ThiagoMaia said:

With this number, will it increase today?

Enviado de meu XT1097 usando Tapatalk

Usually (cheap) Tuesday's after a non-opening weekend increases.

 

But we might have had a spill-over at Monday based on the bad weather at Sunday, so a decrease is possible too, and if the weather situation isn't done (or partly not done), there might be even a bigger decrease.

 

Be aware:

cheap Tuesday (I have no idea if there is an official name) means, that at least some theaters even offer e.g. each ticket for $5, no matter if usual at that house it costs depending on the 2D/3D all from ~ $8-$15. And others have other methods.

Means depending on the rebate till up to 3 people have to buy a ticket to counteract a decrease.

But mostly the rebates are seemingly not that big.

 

One of the fascinating details about SW 7's run is:

it is (still) not really predictable, as it seems not to follow the typical rules, better it is too early to be sure, especially as e.g. earlier pre-sales are so much higher (less clear datas 11 days in its run than ususal IMHO), there are not even calculation models to account for those in the now needed way.

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1 minute ago, Baumer Fett said:

 

Take Avatar for example, it didn't lose any screens until the holidays were over.

 

Dec 18–20 1 $77,025,481 - 3,452 - $22,313 $77,025,481 1
Dec 25–27 1 $75,617,183 -1.8% 3,456 +4 $21,880 $212,711,184 2


2010

Date
(click to view chart)
Rank Weekend
Gross
%
Change
Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#
Jan 1–3 1 $68,490,688 -9.4% 3,461 +5 $19,789 $352,114,898 3

Wow.. Didn't realise Avatar actually got more theatres in it's 3rd week. :mellow:

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6 minutes ago, Baumer Fett said:
               
               
            Gross-to-Date Week
#
Jan 1–3 1 $68,490,688 -9.4% 3,461 +5 $19,789 $352,114,898 3

 

but they had less theater, not so at the max. as SW 7 seems to be. Not saying that it will happen, only that it can happen - to a degree

 

Btw, there are contracts that binds cinemas to show contracted movies even to empty rooms at key times... but if in this case they had signed those kind of contracts?

I wouldn't have - I think

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Sw7 likely will keep the avx and vip and IMAX till mlk at least imo. 

 

Anyways 573 million total...

 

600 by tomorrow 

 

TA GOES down Wednesday. 

 

JW is touch and go Thursday and dead Friday.

 

 

Being conservative

33

30

30

20

85

 

 

738

 

Avatar should go down by latest by Wednesday. 

 

 Using jw as a model 900 is locked.

 

Seeing 940 gross.

 

Legend. 

 

 

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