Monday SW:TFA Estimate - 31.4M (-27%)

[tokila]

so do we go with 31.5 or 33?

[Sagemode87]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Nothing will top this for a long, long, time.

Going to be boring in terms of box office weekend or records. Hope these crazy numbers are worth it. 

[Plain Old Tele]

3 minutes ago, tokila said:

so do we go with 31.5 or 33?

 

When in doubt, always go with Rth, unless his update is significantly earlier than another.

[Sagemode87]

1 minute ago, BKB IS CAPTAIN AMERICA said:

 

Every Day this movie makes $$$$, a little part of Kal dies inside watching AVATAR get knocked down hard and quick..

Don't get cocky, Avatars worldwide record is going nowhere, deservedly so. 

[tokila]

Just now, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

When in doubt, always go with Rth, unless his update is significantly earlier than another.

ya, when he gives a single number like 33 I assume its going to end up .5 mil lower or higher as the window. Deadline probably is just playing it safe, and 31.5 is an amazing number anyways too. No need to guess high in DL's case.

[tokila]

2 minutes ago, Sagemode87 said:

Don't get cocky, Avatars worldwide record is going nowhere, deservedly so. 

you are a strange fellow. 

[JonathanLB]

You know... it's going to be funny to watch, will Avatar or Star Wars Sequel Trilogy be the first trilogy ever to hit $2B domestic? Theoretically both could miss, or both could hit, but if Avatar 2 does very well, then currently Avatar 3 is scheduled for release before Star Wars IX. With nearly a $1B domestic gross, Star Wars would be a lock for $2B domestic I think. That's two $500M hits and that seems a foregone conclusion. Even Avengers 2 managed $460M and that wasn't well received by the core fan base apparently and it ain't Star Wars. Avatar 2 probably determines the likelihood of that trilogy (I realize it'll be 4 movies total) hitting $2B. If it falls off from Avatar as I expect and hits more like $500M, then it doesn't seem likely the third film will make enough to clear $2B. Should be fun to see, though!

 

I remember it wasn't long ago that a $1B trilogy domestically was unreal. A huge, huge trilogy. Now Avengers already hit that without a third movie even coming out yet. And they're also going the 4 movie route there, like Hunger Games. 

[kayumanggi]

I think only AVATAR II can beat AVATAR's worldwide gross.

[Plain Old Tele]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

I think only AVATAR II can beat AVATAR's worldwide gross.

 

This is probably true, although it'll be interesting to see how EPISODE VIII does in emerging markets like China where SW isn't a big deal. A lot depends on how well EPISODE VII goes over.

[Nasok]

Rth can you make it 35 next update?

[JonathanLB]

I don't think either SW8 or Avatar 2 are going to be immune to the sequel syndrome. I mean TPM was huge, then AOTC a significant fall, ROTS back up a bit. ESB wasn't close to making what ANH made, etc. Avatar was such a huge phenomenon and so is SW7, I just can't see their sequels doing better than maybe 75-80% as much business. That would still be an enormous success in both cases. Enormous. 

[solaris]

So less than a 20% drop from a humongous record breaking Monday last week. Running out of superlatives for this. What is the normal pattern for this week? Can it average around $30m across the 4 days or will there be steep declines as with the 24th?

 

I'm still crossing everything for  $100m+ 3rd weekend.

[kayumanggi]

12 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

This is probably true, although it'll be interesting to see how EPISODE VIII does in emerging markets like China where SW isn't a big deal. A lot depends on how well EPISODE VII goes over.

 

China is definitely a key driver, but a movie needs to do crazy numbers across all continents to beat AVATAR. I expect EPISODE VIII to be huge as well, but competition will be a little bit tougher by the time it's released.

[terrestrial]

43 minutes ago, Obi-Wan Telemachos said:

 

This is probably true, although it'll be interesting to see how EPISODE VIII does in emerging markets like China where SW isn't a big deal. A lot depends on how well EPISODE VII goes over.

 

I think even if SW 7 doesn't do great, it might still push a general interest and SW8 (if of similat accessable story....) could get condiderable higher

 

 

 

From time to time as a reminder or ... in especial for the newbes:

exchange rates in relation to the different movies you like SW 9 to compare to, have changed. 

Depending to the year and country partly a very lot.... or 'only' ~ 20% (and some might even be stabile)

There is a thread at the international BO area by peludo that shows more details

 

[tokila]

2 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

I think even if SW 7 doesn't do great, it might still push a general interest and SW8 (if of similat accessable story....) could get condiderable higher

 

 

 

From time to time as a reminder or ... in especial for the newbes:

exchange rates in relation to the different movies you like SW 9 to compare to, have changed. 

Depending to the year and country partly a very lot.... or 'only' ~ 20% (and some might even be stabile)

There is a thread at the international BO area by peludo that shows more details

 

I think we see a trend similiar to the Avengers and Age of Ultron. Yes there will be a decline in DOM take, its going to be hard for any movie to top TFA the rest of this decade. But I think we will see gains overseas to help offset this, in the end the WW total will fall somewhat short of TFA but still close enough. 

[Ajipon]

11 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

 

I think even if SW 7 doesn't do great, it might still push a general interest and SW8 (if of similat accessable story....) could get condiderable higher

 

 

 

From time to time as a reminder or ... in especial for the newbes:

exchange rates in relation to the different movies you like SW 9 to compare to, have changed. 

Depending to the year and country partly a very lot.... or 'only' ~ 20% (and some might even be stabile)

There is a thread at the international BO area by peludo that shows more details

 

One way SW 8 numbers can improve is the WW number, even if DOM number won't be as good. TFA's ratio of DOM/OS is very high compared to other blockbusters lately, although China remains a wild card. Maybe the ratio will be lower for the sequels. Especially considering Rogue One is released a year before that stars Donnie Yen to raise awareness from the second biggest market. 

Another factor is if Rian Johnson somehow manages to make a movie so critically acclaimed that comparisons to ESB are being made - and if it somehow satisfies some narrative cliffhangers left behind by JJ Abrams. 

The perfect storm of a critically acclaimed trilogy, aided with Rogue One and Han Solo standalone movies might just push SW 9 over Avatar finally: that is, if Avatar 2-3-4 haven't already broken the records then. 

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, JonathanLB said:

I don't think either SW8 or Avatar 2 are going to be immune to the sequel syndrome. I mean TPM was huge, then AOTC a significant fall, ROTS back up a bit. ESB wasn't close to making what ANH made, etc. Avatar was such a huge phenomenon and so is SW7, I just can't see their sequels doing better than maybe 75-80% as much business. That would still be an enormous success in both cases. Enormous. 

 

The domestic numbers will drop, it's the overseas numbers that will make up for that. Many major markets were crazy about AVATAR back in 2009. It had NINE territories that made at least 100 M each.

[JonathanLB]

2 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The domestic numbers will drop, it's the overseas numbers that will make up for that. Many major markets were crazy about AVATAR back in 2009. It had NINE territories that made at least 100 M each.

 

Yeah lol talk about an absolutely jaw-dropping international performance. I mean, don't get me wrong, it was AMAZING in North America too, the holds, the victory amount over Titanic... the whole thing. But as impressive as it was in America, it was even more impressive overseas. I can barely wrap my mind around $2 BILLION from outside of America. Unreal. 

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, kayumanggi said:

 

Many major markets were crazy about AVATAR back in 2009. It had NINE territories that made at least 100 M each.

 

That's why i think OS will not make up for DOM, there's no room to grow, unless China makes like $800m...

 

Also think SW8 will grow OS only if it does much better in some asian territories. In established markets i don't see room to grow from SW7.

[kayumanggi]

9 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:

 

Yeah lol talk about an absolutely jaw-dropping international performance. I mean, don't get me wrong, it was AMAZING in North America too, the holds, the victory amount over Titanic... the whole thing. But as impressive as it was in America, it was even more impressive overseas. I can barely wrap my mind around $2 BILLION from outside of America. Unreal. 

 

It had SIX 100 M overseas weekends. Crazy.