Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[The Panda]

I think Zootopia has the win locked down.

 

I think any movie that has themes that resonate against the current political state (or just provide an easy distraction from it, like La La Land) are going to dominate this year.  Including in the animated field.

[CelestialFairyIX]

I expect Zootopia to get a nomination in Best Original Screenplay and Best Animated Feature and Moana to get nominations Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song... hopefully 2. 

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

I expect Zootopia to get a nomination in Best Original Screenplay and Best Animated Feature and Moana to get nominations Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song... hopefully 2. 

The Screenplay momentum seems to be gone for Zootopia.

[Fancyarcher]

10 hours ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

I expect Zootopia to get a nomination in Best Original Screenplay and Best Animated Feature and Moana to get nominations Best Animated Feature and Best Original Song... hopefully 2. 

 

Doubt it. It has too much competition and it probably won't resonate with the academy enough for them to give it more then one nomination.

[Mojoguy]

It's going to be awkward as hell for Disney when they have to campaign for three of their movies in this category.

Zoo, FD, and Moana all have a good chance. They should have released Zoo and Moana in different years.

[cannastop]

23 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

It's going to be awkward as hell for Disney when they have to campaign for three of their movies in this category.

Zoo, FD, and Moana all have a good chance. They should have released Zoo and Moana in different years.

They seem to favor Zootopia over Finding Dory in Oscar campaigning. We'll see how big Moana is.

[SchumacherFTW]

8 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

It's going to be awkward as hell for Disney when they have to campaign for three of their movies in this category.

Zoo, FD, and Moana all have a good chance. They should have released Zoo and Moana in different years.

And with all those votes split, in comes Your Name to pick up the pieces  

[Mojoguy]

Zootopia can win BAF and Moana can win Best Song.

Both movies come out of this a winner and WDAS would to have two movies be Oscar winners this year. This would be the best outcome for them.

But La La Land is still the biggest competition for Best Song and remains the biggest threat.

Edited November 22, 2016 by Mojoguy

[mahnamahna]

47 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Zootopia can win BAF and Moana can win Best Song.

Both movies come out of this a winner and WDAS would to have two movies be Oscar winners this year. This would be the best outcome for them.

But La La Land is still the biggest competition for Best Song and remains the biggest threat.

 

I think La La Land will win Best Song since it's a BP frontrunner, while Moana will likely only be nominated for BAF and Best Song. 

 

Still, I'm predicting 

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana 
4. Your Name 
5. Sing/Finding Dory (depending on Sing's reception) 

[Mojoguy]

Finding Dory can win Best Screenplay. *shrugs*

[yjs]

Moana could end with a higher RT average score and a higher MT score than Zootopia. with it remaining more fresh in the voters' minds for coming out later, could there be an upset? 

[CoolioD1]

i don't think it would be an upset. seems like it's between those two movies. if moana is huge then can definitely benefit from everyone buzzing it right now and not 9 months ago.

[Jason]

On 11/22/2016 at 10:06 AM, yjs said:

Moana could end with a higher RT average score and a higher MT score than Zootopia. with it remaining more fresh in the voters' minds for coming out later, could there be an upset? 

 

Any difference between the final RT average and MC score of Moana and Zootopia won't be meaningful (ie. will be within what can be explained by sampling error). I wouldn't consider it an upset if Moana wins - either way, a very well-received and popular film will have won.

[cannastop]

Predictions for nominations:

 

1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo
4. Red Turtle
5. Your Name

[Jason]

26 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Predictions for nominations:

 

1. Zootopia
2. Moana
3. Kubo
4. Red Turtle
5. Your Name

 

Agree with these. I consider the first three locked now, with Zootopia and Moana competing for the win. Still see April, Finding Dory, and My Life as a Zucchini as the most likely competitors with Red Turtle and Your Name for the last two spots, with Miss Hokusai and The Little Prince having an outside chance.

 

This is the most competitive year ever for Best Animated Feature. Presently six submissions with an average RT rating over 8 (previous record was three in 2014 and 2015), and ten submissions with an average rating over 7 (previous record was nine in 2009).

Edited November 23, 2016 by Jason

[cannastop]

On 11/23/2016 at 1:29 PM, Jason said:

 

Agree with these. I consider the first three locked now, with Zootopia and Moana competing for the win. Still see April, Finding Dory, and My Life as a Zucchini as the most likely competitors with Red Turtle and Your Name for the last two spots with Miss Hokusai and The Little Prince having an outside chance.

 

This is the most competitive year ever for Best Animated Feature. Presently six submissions with an average RT rating over 8 (previous record was three in 2014 and 2015), and ten submissions with an average rating over 7 (previous record was nine in 2009).

I'm still kind of iffy on Your Name. I don't know if Funimation is savvy enough to pull off a nomination for it.

Edited November 28, 2016 by cannastop

[Jason]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

I'm still kind of iffy on Your Name. I don't know if Funimation is savvy enough to pull of a nomination for it.

 

If it's good enough quality, I think the Animation branch will recognize that regardless of a strong campaign from Funimation (which I would agree is lacking so far). My biggest concern right now though is that the sample of critical reception for Your Name is not representative, there are far too few American reviews.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Jason said:

 

If it's good enough quality, I think the Animation branch will recognize that regardless of a strong campaign from Funimation (which I would agree is lacking so far). My biggest concern right now though is that the sample of critical reception for Your Name is not representative, there are far too few American reviews.

The main thing is appealing to the Animation Branch, who chooses nominations. Will they see something special in the movie? It would be the first non-Ghibli Japanese animated movie to get a nod.

[Jason]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

The main thing is appealing to the Animation Branch, who chooses nominations. Will they see something special in the movie? It would be the first non-Ghibli Japanese animated movie to get a nod.

 

Yes. Notably though, the other non-Ghibli Japanese films that have been submitted in the past also had markedly weaker reception among critics compared to most of the Ghibli nominees, as well as Your Name. So it may very well be that the Animation Branch is responding to quality rather than a bias for Ghibli films (of course, the other possibility is that both critics and the Animation Branch have been biased in a similar way).

[BadAtGender]

10 hours ago, cannastop said:

I'm still kind of iffy on Your Name. I don't know if Funimation is savvy enough to pull of a nomination for it.

This, basically. 

 

Also, the quality of the animation craft is going to matter a lot. Ghibli is a safe bet because they pour a huge amount of time and effort into their films. The rest of the anime industry tends to fall a bit short in comparison. 

 

(and despite the raves, I think it will need to be a not insignificant step up from Shinkai's previous films to have a shot.)