Best Animated Feature - 2016: Zootopia, Moana, Kubo, Zucchini, Red Turtle

[cannastop]

The Hawaii Film Critics Society didn't go with the Pacific Island themed Moana. Instead they had a tie between Kubo and Zootopia.

 

 

BEST ANIMATED FILM:

Kubo and the Two Strings (dir. Travis Knight) (tie)

Zootopia (dir. Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Jared Bush)

 

http://hifilmcriticssociety.org/the-hawaii-film-critics-society-2016-list/

[Impact]

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Zootopia

 

Alt: Secret Life of Pets

[Gamb1993]

- April and the Extraordinary World

- Kubo and the Two Strings

- Moana

- My Life as a Zucchini

- Zootopia*

 

Alts (in descending order of likelihood):

- Finding Dory

- The Red Turtle

- Miss Hokusai

 

*Will win

[Jason]

Zootopia (will win)

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Your Name

 

Alts (in descending order of likelihood):

My Life as a Zucchini

April and the Extraordinary World

Finding Dory

 

Edited January 19, 2017 by Jason

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

Zootopia (will win)

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

The Red Turtle

Your Name

 

Alts (in descending order of likelihood):

My Life as a Zucchini

April and the Extraordinary World

Finding Dory

 

Where do you get the sense that Your Name will get a nod? I think Funimation really let that movie down in promoting it.

[Jason]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

Where do you get the sense that Your Name will get a nod? I think Funimation really let that movie down in promoting it.

 

I probably should have explained that here rather than in the Your Name thread? 

 

Anyway, I agree, they didn't promote it at all, as far as I know (and I did check) they only screened it in Los Angeles for one week and that's it. They're also clearly not banking on an Oscar nod as part of their release strategy, unlike SPC and The Red Turtle, where it's positioned perfectly to benefit from an Oscar nod.

 

I still think Your Name has a decent chance is because of the Animation Branch's selection process. Participants in the nominating committee are required to have watched two-thirds of the submissions (and there's at least half a dozen films with even less promotion), and the nominating committee assigns an average rating to all films. In theory, that means a film watched by fewer members won't be hurt as long as those members rate it highly, unlike FPTP or even ranked balloting.

 

In practice, that does appear to be the case based on previous nominations. Average RT rating compared to other submissions has been by far the strongest predictor of a nomination, box office or distributor effects are essentially non-existent when taking that into account. Your Name is among the most highly rated of this year, along with Kubo, The Red Turtle, Zootopia, My Life as a Zucchini, and Moana. At least one of those has to miss, I'm going with My Life as a Zucchini because I don't have anything go on other than RT ratings, with distributor effects appearing to be non-existent, and none of those films receiving a large number of technical nominations from the Annies. (Appears to be a predictor independent of average rating.)

 

The one other thing I think Your Name has going for it is that in the only North American city it was screened in, the local critics association awarded it Best Animated Feature.

Edited January 20, 2017 by Jason
typo

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

I probably should have explained that here rather than in the Your Name thread? 

Yeah, it really is confusing, especially since I can't tell which thread you're quoting me in when I get a notification.

 

I guess I'll repeat myself as well:

 

I just sense a lack of interest from the animation community, going by the response to Cartoon Brew blogs.

Edited January 19, 2017 by cannastop

[Blankments]

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
 

[Impact]

My Life as a Zucchini-if that was the title of a nomination for animated short I say it should win based off it's title

 

[titanic2187]

I really hope your name can be nominated, at least a nomination......I'm not greedy....

[titanic2187]

Zootopia

Red turtle

Kubo and the Two Strings

Your name

Moana 

 

[Morieris]

All this optimism as if we don't know Zootopia is going to walk in and take it. I think only Inside Out was the more obvious pick in recent years.

[Jason]

5 minutes ago, Morieris said:

All this optimism as if we don't know Zootopia is going to walk in and take it. I think only Inside Out was the more obvious pick in recent years.

 

I think Frozen was pretty obvious too. But 2011, 2012, and 2014 were definitely not as obvious.

 

Also, I think activity in this thread died down at least partly because it became so obvious that Zootopia was going to take it.

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, Jason said:

 

I think Frozen was pretty obvious too. But 2011, 2012, and 2014 were definitely not as obvious.

 

Also, I think activity in this thread died down at least partly because it became so obvious that Zootopia was going to take it.

I also think it's died down because there's nothing to talk about until Oscar nominations are announced.

[SchumacherFTW]

Don't worry, I'm sure I'll go apeshit if Your Name doesn't get in to liven things up

[BadAtGender]

Here's what I'm thinking.

 

1. Zootopia

2. Kubo and the Two Strings

 

These two are guarantees. They've got the bulk of the critics awards, generally fantastic reviews, and both are exemplary in their respective mediums (computer and stop motion, respectively.) There's no way they miss.

 

3. Moana OR Finding Dory

 

This is a bit more tricky. I think it's likely that Moana gets the nomination rather than Dory, the circumstances of Zootopia already being there, so it's not like WDAS will get shut out if Moana misses, mean that we probably can't count Pixar getting a nomination. It's not as if Dory isn't an undeserving film in its own right. Critically, the films are close (95/7.9 for Moana and 95/7.6 for Dory), so it could be a tossup.

 

However, I think back to 2014, and the upset when Lego didn't get a nomination, despite critical raves. I've argued that it makes sense from a budgetary standpoint, but I also wonder if there might have been a case of tactical voting. Where animation branch members might have felt it would have been a deserving nominee, but also realized it was guaranteed to win if it did get a nom, when they saw other films (any of the other films, perhaps) as more deserving winners.

 

There's no way to prove this, of course, but it's possible that Dory beats Zootopia as the winner if it gets a nomination, and I doubt anyone in the animation branch feels Dory is a more deserving winner. Moana isn't likely to pull an upset in the same way.

 

(In contrast to '14, if Dory misses a nom, nobody will cry foul.)

 

4 & 5.

 

Two spots left, and they'll be filled by indies. We've had a swath of them this year, so there's no lack of hopefuls. I'd rank their chances thusly:

 

a. My Life as a Zucchini

b. The Red Turtle

c. Your Name

d. April and the Extraordinary World

e. The Little Prince

f. Miss Hokusai

g. Phantom Boy

h. whichever misses between Dory and Moana

 

I almost put Zucchini as slot 4 and left the others for the fifth, but there are so many possibilities here, I won't really be surprised if any miss it.

 

Still, Zucchini is stop motion, which gives it a pretty massive medium bump.

The Red Turtle is partially Ghibli, so that may come into play.

Your Name does have some pretty great critical response, though again, as with Lego, that's no guarantee. A lot might come down to how well regarded the character animation is. Shinkai does some phenomenal stuff with backgrounds and such, but his character work isn't jaw-dropping in comparison. Outside of Ghibli, anime in general doesn't seem to be well regarded.

April feels like it's a bit outside the top three. It's got some great animation and character work, though, plus some delightfully off-kilter worldbuilding that brings to mind Miyazaki blended with European influences.

The Little Prince, I don't know. The story itself has some great stop motion work, which is in its favor. But it's got the less well regarded framing story, which might ding it as lower budget computer animation. Plus there's those distribution woes. Had it gotten a wide-ish release, I'd put its chances as much more likely.

Miss Hokusai has the problem of running in the same year as Your Name, so it's got a much higher profile and probably better regarded anime film competing with it. Still, it's probably not completely dead.

Phantom Boy is from the same studio and directors as A Cat in Paris, which got a fairly surprising nomination in 2011. It's got about the same blend of off-kilter charm and suspenseful adventure, but it also is in a much more competitive year.

And we're back to Dory and Moana again. I put this here mostly because it's possible that both of them do get a slot, but I consider such a thing slim.

 

Part of the reason I don't want to count any of these out is what I'd call the Boy and the World effect. It doesn't matter how low profile something is. The animation branch can still give it a push if they like it enough.

[cannastop]

51 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

There's no way to prove this, of course, but it's possible that Dory beats Zootopia as the winner if it gets a nomination, and I doubt anyone in the animation branch feels Dory is a more deserving winner. Moana isn't likely to pull an upset in the same way.

I really doubt that. Disney is 100% in the tank for Zootopia, so it's not going to lose to one of its siblings.

[cannastop]

@SchumacherFTW@eXtacy

 

Here Are Four Oscar-Worthy Animated Features That The Academy Shouldn’t Overlook

http://www.cartoonbrew.com/awards/four-animated-features-academy-shouldnt-overlook-147921.html

 

Quote

Your Name

Director: Makoto Shinkai
Studio: Comix Wave Films
Distributor: Funimation (U.S.)
Let me just put this out there: If the Academy doesn’t recognize Your Name with a nomination, it will be impossible to take the category seriously this year. The level of filmmaking craft and directorial vision in Makoto Shinkai’s film is above and beyond any of the other contenders—it truly stands in a league of its own. From a sophisticated use of visual motifs, masterfully-lit scenes, and unique shot choices that heighten the drama of the story, Shinkai doesn’t leave any doubt that he is in control of the film. He also isn’t afraid to challenge his audience by adding an element in the second act that completely flips the narrative. What could have been a routine supernatural fantasy/romance suddenly reveals itself to be an infinitely more complex metaphysical tale with clear parallels to recent global events.

 

Let's hope that enough Academy members saw it.

[Jason]

3 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

However, I think back to 2014, and the upset when Lego didn't get a nomination, despite critical raves. I've argued that it makes sense from a budgetary standpoint, but I also wonder if there might have been a case of tactical voting. Where animation branch members might have felt it would have been a deserving nominee, but also realized it was guaranteed to win if it did get a nom, when they saw other films (any of the other films, perhaps) as more deserving winners.

 

This is an interesting idea. It's certainly possible, although the type of voting system used by the Animation Branch is relatively resistant to tactical voting, especially since the lowest score that may be assigned is 6/10. So if this occurred, it would have required a large number (almost certainly a majority) of members to have decided to give The Lego Movie a lower rating than they otherwise would have.

 

4 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

Still, Zucchini is stop motion, which gives it a pretty massive medium bump.

 

I considered this. It's certainly possible. Problem is, there have been only nine stop-motion animated films submitted from 2004-2015 (out of 192 submissions), and seven of those had strong enough critical reception that it's expected they would be nominated on that basis alone. Of the remaining two, Boxtrolls was nominated but wasn't far out of the expected "required" level of critical reception, and did receive a raft of technical nominations at the Annies.

 

Even if both Kubo and Zucchini are nominated, they're both strong enough in their own right that it still can't be known if the Animation Branch has a real bias in favour of stop-motion, or just that the stop-motion films submitted have almost all been excellent films regardless. I almost want to say we need some not-so-good stop-motion films for the sake of science.

 

4 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

Your Name does have some pretty great critical response, though again, as with Lego, that's no guarantee. A lot might come down to how well regarded the character animation is. Shinkai does some phenomenal stuff with backgrounds and such, but his character work isn't jaw-dropping in comparison. Outside of Ghibli, anime in general doesn't seem to be well regarded.

 

The point regarding character animation is a good one. It's something that can't be quantified and fed into a spreadsheet, but I do think it's likely to be of importance to the Animation Branch. Likewise the point regarding non-Ghibli anime, one of only about five "surprise" missed nominations since 2005 from the standpoint of critical reception is Paprika. If Your Name misses a nomination despite the strength of its critical reception, I'd consider weaknesses in character nomination or a (even weak) bias against anime to be more likely than lack of awareness, given viewing requirements by the nominating committee.

 

Anyway, great write-up. 

[eXtacy]

8 hours ago, cannastop said:

@SchumacherFTW@eXtacy

 

Here Are Four Oscar-Worthy Animated Features That The Academy Shouldn’t Overlook

http://www.cartoonbrew.com/awards/four-animated-features-academy-shouldnt-overlook-147921.html

 

 

Let's hope that enough Academy members saw it.

 

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