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Thursday Numbers: 4.50 M ZOOTOPIA

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4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You've been saying that it's not been a normal weekday for three weeks now. C'mon.

 

I do anticipate a big drop on Monday, though.

The only normal weekdays were from its opening week (March 7-10) while its second week's weekdays (March 14-17) were inflated by spring break and its third week's weekdays (March 21-24) were inflated by Holy Week and some people being on spring break as well. And Monday won't drop big, probably around 20-40% because it will be Easter Monday which is a holiday in Canada and some parts of the US. Furthermore the 3 days following Easter Monday will be slightly inflated by the presence of spring (or Easter) break for some. The day that it will really drop hard (~83%) is Monday, April 4. It seems Zootopia picked one good release date that's for sure!

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5 minutes ago, cannastop said:

You've been saying that it's not been a normal weekday for three weeks now. C'mon.

 

I do anticipate a big drop on Monday, though.

 

And im not wrong ;) since normal weekdays don't lend to flat week to weeks. You have to understand that there are patterns to how certain times of the year play out that tend to boost or hinder certain kinds of films. Spring Break which is a general period over 3 or 4 weeks in March and April (depending on Easter) will boost family films in particular because the children have more free time to see films ala the summer. It's why March has always been a good time too release animated films - we've just never had one that has done Zootopias level of business before. 

 

And next week will also see decent holds compared to normal. Monday is still a quasi holiday for school children in the U.S. So don't go expecting an -85% drop off yet, that will be the first Monday in April. Take a look at both Lorax and Home to see how the week after Easter plays out as well as how things return to normal the following week. 

 

Normal weekdays are weekdays are summer or school year weekdays that are not effected by either a holiday or break periods - Disney chose a prime release date that allowed the film to play almost like a summer film the entire month of March - which is not normal - and it was aided by the fact that Easter is early this year and Spring Break weekdays inflate the grosses and then they hit the mother load with the film having amazing wom. 

No film lives or dies in a bubble and no two films experiences are the same but patterns exist for reasons - hence why I have been able to call its behavior all week with decent accuracy. Not because I am a genius - look at my derby I am far from the best predictor on this site but because I have been following the box office long enough to know when to look at the patterns of the past for guidance coupled with my gut. 

 

Zootopia is about to do something amazing and set an animation record for the 4th weekend, enjoy it and the fact that Zoo isnt behaving completely normal, but also know that reality comes back in just a few short days. Hopefully 300 will still happen a 25m+ gross will go a long ways toward that. 

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2 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

Any release date is a good one for a great film

 

Thats what I truly love about the release schedule now. It used to be that good films only opened at certain points on the calendar - a by product of the 90s blockbuster / Oscars in winter set up but now we are getting back to the way it was before I was even born where films opened whenever they damn well pleased lol. Obviously there are some advantages to opening at certain times - Christmas always shows us that but if your film is good it will do well regardless if given a decent release. 

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1 hour ago, tribefan695 said:

Now I'll say $300 mil is a likelihood

 

Re: Zootopia

If it behaves like Inside Out from last weekend, it will end up with $290M

But I think this will have strong leg and parents would prefer this over the

dark & violent BvS for their younger preteens.

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4 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

Re: Zootopia

If it behaves like Inside Out from last weekend, it will end up with $290M

But I think this will have strong leg and parents would prefer this over the

dark & violent BvS for their younger preteens.

 

Home made another $83m after it's $27m Easter w/e.  $60m of that before Memorial Day w/e and $47m of that in just it's next two weekends.  After this w/e Zoo will be near $245m.  Even if it completely collapses in 3 weeks with JB I don't see it missing $300m.

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