Weekend Thread | RTH pg 197...Mother's Day not kind to CW but very kind to JB and MD CW 42, JB 9,7, MDD 6.1,Hunts 1.48...puts CW at about 178M

[Lordmandeep]

Reason I am bullish on Sunday is late night Sunday shows are usually a ghost town (10,11 pm shows) but will be more then half full by showtime. 

[ecstasy]

1 hour ago, eddyxx said:

Yeah who the hell is Derek Luke?

Antoine Fisher. Much more popular than Hailey and Sebastian.

[DeeCee]

14 minutes ago, Baumer said:

 

American comedy really doesn't do well internationally.  So you can't use the same theory that if a super hero or tentpole big budget film doesn't do well in Australia or UK, then it won't do well here.  For example both Grown ups did about 10 mill in Australia and Anchorman did 1.6 million.  So comedy is a little harder to gauge. 

This is a sequel and Bad Neighbours did relatively better in Australia then it did Domestic so this does suggest it will drop to $25-35m opening weekend.

 

Also, these type of comedies generally have a lower rating in Australia of MA15+ rather the R in the USA.  It allows for a bigger potential audience.

[The Futurist]

1 minute ago, ecstasy said:

Antoine Fisher. Much more popular than Hailey and Sebastian.

 

I heard Tommy Lee Jones was a riot on the Cap set.

[Focus]

3 hours ago, Lordmandeep said:

I see those three films as huge films that spawned entire worlds and huge culture phenomenons but in 5 yeas I just dont see JW being a big deal. 

 

I may not have liked JW much but I'm not downplaying the brand power of the JP franchise. Everything dinosaur-related in pop culture is directly from the franchise. JW will be remembered as the best sequel to the classic JP (not like that's a huge achievement.)

Most fans of JW are the casual audience too, not the sort to spend hours on the internet talking about the movie or writing fanfiction.

Edited May 9, 2016 by Focus

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

Antoine Fisher. Much more popular than Hailey and Sebastian.

Five years ago he might have been more well-known but now those two definitely are.

[movieboner]

I hope the actuals for Civil War are a lot higher.

[WrathOfHan]

4 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

This is a sequel and Bad Neighbours did relatively better in Australia then it did Domestic so this does suggest it will drop to $25-35m opening weekend.

 

Also, these type of comedies generally have a lower rating in Australia of MA15+ rather the R in the USA.  It allows for a bigger potential audience.

My under 70M club is happening  

[ecstasy]

39 minutes ago, Sam said:

 

He was such a pretty boy. He looked like some cougar's boy toy lol. 

 

Definitely get better with age. 

[Lordmandeep]

2 minutes ago, Focus said:

 

I may not have liked JW much but I'm not downplaying the brand power of the JP franchise. Everything dinosaur-related in pop culture is directly from the franchise. JW will be remembered as the best sequel to the classic JP (not like that's a huge achievement.)

Most fans of JW are the casual audience too, not the sort to spend hours on the internet talking about the movie or writing fanfiction.

 

Yes that is true and people forget racing cars and dinos appeals to a much wider audience then comic books. 

[baumer]

This weekend, Marvel got the summer off to a sizzling start with the third Captain America film that played more like an Avengers sequel.  Missing were Hulk, Thor and Fury but Marvel wisely added other favourites like Black Panther and now that Marvel has control of Spider-man, he was wisely inserted into the film.  The result was the fifth largest opening weekend of all time, bumping Iron Man 3 down a notch and coming in about ten million shy of the last Avengers sequel.  The allure of seeing Marvel favourites battle each other was intriguing enough to make this film act much more like an Avengers film than a sequel to Captain America.  

 

Starting on Thursday night with previews, it took in 25.7 million, less than Batman vs Superman but then it took off for the rest of the weekend.  Friday business gave it a lofty 50+ million and Saturday business was strong with a bump of about 20%.  Sunday is projected to drop by 25%.  However with Mother's Day, it could be slightly higher or lower.  While tracking and other industry pundits were thinking this would hit 200 million, Disney themselves and some of the non loonies at sites like boxofficetheory.com were pretty much bang on with their expectations at around 175-190.  Ofthen times some pundits think with their heart and not their brain.

 

Internationally the numbers are even more impressive.  Captain Biceps and friends got an early start as it launched last weekend in more than 35 markets and this weekend a litany of others.  The results were mind blowing with Captain 3 taking in 220 million more this weekend in off shore dollars.  This brings the world wide cume to a staggering 678 million after only ten days.  The billion dollar mark will be shattered next weekend.  The world wide cume could challenge 1.3 billion and that would put it in the top ten films of all time.  Whether it passes Deathly Hallows 2 for 8th still remains to be seen.

 

This sets Marvel up nicely for the next 5 years or so as it looks like Infinity 1 and 2 are going to be huge grossing films and now that Spider-man has the Avengers, namely Mr. Stark, in his corner, the future for web-head looks bright also.  Thor has been lagging a bit behind the others but perhaps with the Hulk set to appear in Thor 3, he too could make a push for much bigger numbers.  

 

With an A Cinemascore, the future looks very bright for Captain3/Avengers 2.5.  Don't expect a 3X like the first Avengers had but it will certainly have a better multiplier than Age of Ultron's 2.4.  Landing somewhere in the middle is a good guess at this point so a final tally of about 470 million seems safe.

 

Continuing it's stellar run is The Jungle Book, which fell an understandable 50% in it's fourth weekend.  It took in 21.87 million and another 24 million internationally pushing the domestic total to around 285 million and the WW cume is now at 776 million.  It has a chance to join the billion dollar club but it would need huge results from Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan.

 

Gary Marshall's latest all star fest, Mother's Day, increased from last weekend.  It jumped 7.6% to 9 million.  The domestic take is 20.7 million and it will probably finish with around 30 million.  There is no budget released for this but there are reports that Julia Roberts got 3 million for her 30 seconds of screen time, or about just under half of what Chris Evans got for Civil War.  Great investment there Open Road Films.

 

The rest of the films aren't worth mentioning except to say that Zootopia is still doing well and Batman V Superman is not.

 

Compared to my original (sort of ) prediction of 150 million, Civil War eclipsed that comfortably.  Compared to my revised estimate of 190 million, it came  pretty close and still much closer than Kal's 225+.

 

Check back Monday night for actuals.

[ecstasy]

My crush.

 

Edited May 9, 2016 by ecstasy

[ecstasy]

5 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Five years ago he might have been more well-known but now those two definitely are.

I was just answering your question.

[Focus]

Just now, Lordmandeep said:

 

Yes that is true and people forget racing cars and dinos appeals to a much wider audience then comic books. 

FF7 OS performance was insane. I doubt its sequels will match it though.

[ecstasy]

8 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

 

I heard Tommy Lee Jones was a riot on the Cap set.

He probably was. He was funny in the movie. 

 

He looks just the opposite in Bourne, lol.

[Lordmandeep]

1 minute ago, Focus said:

FF7 OS performance was insane. I doubt its sequels will match it though.

 

 

Lol I have some relatives in India and Dubai and its like the most popular Hollywood movie ever there 

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

He probably was. He was funny in the movie. 

 

He looks just the opposite in Bourne, lol.

He looks like the opposite in everything nowadays. In Criminal it seemed like he was dying on his scenes. Glad Gary Oldman and Kevin Costner were there to save the show. 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, ecstasy said:

He probably was. He was funny in the movie. 

 

He looks just the opposite in Bourne, lol.

[CJohn]

5 minutes ago, Focus said:

FF7 OS performance was insane. I doubt its sequels will match it though.

It is the biggest OW here ever and like the 3rd or 4th biggest movie ever here. Just insane. 

[ecstasy]

3 minutes ago, CJohn said:

He looks like the opposite in everything nowadays. In Criminal in seemed like he was dying on his scenes. Glad Gary Oldman and Kevin Costner were there to save the show. 

 

Omg CJohn this made me laugh so hard. That shouldn't be funny though.