Weekend Actuals: TMNT 35.3M | X-Men 22.8M | Me Before You 18.7M | Popstar 4.7M

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

Never.

 

So sad

 

23 minutes ago, Celedhring said:

 

It's still a strength. Remove all MCU ties from Civil War and make it a solo Cap adventure, and you probably get a 200m grosser. It's just that it's getting diminishing returns.

 

The last Cap movie made $259m so um not very likely.  This isn't X-Men.

 

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Good idea. Who could have predicted that Iron Man might not be a draw, though?

 

What???  

[cannastop]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

So sad

 

 

The last Cap movie made $259m so um not very likely.  This isn't X-Men.

 

 

What???  

I'm saying that putting Iron Man in a Guardians of the Galaxy movie would not be a good idea.

 

And what I mean by that is that I don't what GOTG2 to be mixed in the Avengers bullshit I don't care about.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, cannastop said:

I'm saying that putting Iron Man in a Guardians of the Galaxy movie would not be a good idea.

 

And what I mean by that is that I don't what GOTG2 to be mixed in the Avengers bullshit I don't care about.

 

But that's not what you said. 

 

I also really rather not have GOTG characters mixed with the Avengers aside because maybe aside from the Rocket & Groot I find them weak characters and those two don't exactly fit.

 

 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

But that's not what you said. 

 

I also really rather not have GOTG characters mixed with the Avengers aside because maybe aside from the Rocket & Groot I find them weak characters and those two don't exactly fit.

 

 

It is what I said. Don't let your Avenger's fanboyism ruin your ability to read.

 

And I do think that literally putting an Avenger in a GOTG movie would confuse some people, and might affect gross. So yes, Iron Man might not be a draw in some cases. Not that GOTG2 actually will have Avengers in it, of course.

[TalismanRing]

Just now, cannastop said:

It is what I said. Don't let your Avenger's fanboyism ruin your ability to read.

 

And I do think that literally putting an Avenger in a GOTG movie would confuse some people, and might affect gross. So yes, Iron Man might not be a draw in some cases. Not that GOTG2 actually will have Avengers in it, of course.

 

That isn't what you originally wrote.  Your lack of coherence or ability to craft your thoughts into sentences that reflect them isn't my failing. 

 

And my god you talking about fanboyism....

[trifle]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It is what I said. Don't let your Avenger's fanboyism ruin your ability to read.

 

And I do think that literally putting an Avenger in a GOTG movie would confuse some people, and might affect gross. So yes, Iron Man might not be a draw in some cases. Not that GOTG2 actually will have Avengers in it, of course.

 

GOTG2 won't have Avengers, but Avengers Infinity War will have Star Lord and Rocket Raccoon, as I understand it.  http://moviepilot.com/posts/3910463

[department store basement]

With TFA closing the only 2015 release still in theaters that made more than 10 million is...The Lady in the Van. I'm shocked that that lasted this long.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, department store basement said:

With TFA closing the only 2015 release still in theaters that made more than 10 million is...The Lady in the Van. I'm shocked that that lasted this long.

And The Revenant 

[department store basement]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

And The Revenant 

 

It closed on May 26.

[johnboy3434]

Because I feel like taking chances, here's my initial guesses for the weekend to weekend performances of all four new films.

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

(based on Wrath of the Titans)

OPENING WEEKEND: $35.3M

SECOND WEEKEND: $15.5M (-56%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $8.49M (-45.4%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.03M (-28.9%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $5.05M (-16.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $103M (2.91x)

 

Me Before You

(based on Water for Elephants)

OPENING WEEKEND: $18.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $10.5M (-43.7%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $7.86M (-25.5%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.07M (-22.8%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $4.65M (-23.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $72.2M (3.85x)

 

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

(based on MacGruber)

OPENING WEEKEND: $4.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $1.75M (-62.8%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $9.92M (2.11x)

 

Love & Friendship

(based on Chef)

WIDE OPENING WEEKEND: $2.15M

SECOND WIDE WEEKEND: $1.79M (-16.8%)

THIRD WIDE WEEKEND: $1.47M (-17.5%)

FOURTH WIDE WEEKEND: $1.44M (-2.31%)

PROJECTED WIDE DOMESTIC TOTAL: $10M (4.67x)

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by johnboy3434

[narniadis]

45 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

Because I feel like taking chances, here's my initial guesses for the weekend to weekend performances of all four new films.

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

(based on Wrath of the Titans)

OPENING WEEKEND: $35.3M

SECOND WEEKEND: $15.5M (-56%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $8.49M (-45.4%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.03M (-28.9%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $5.05M (-16.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $103M (2.91x)

 

Me Before You

(based on Water for Elephants)

OPENING WEEKEND: $18.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $10.5M (-43.7%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $7.86M (-25.5%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.07M (-22.8%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $4.65M (-23.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $72.2M (3.85x)

 

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

(based on MacGruber)

OPENING WEEKEND: $4.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $1.75M (-62.8%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $9.92M (2.11x)

 

Love & Friendship

(based on Chef)

WIDE OPENING WEEKEND: $2.15M

SECOND WIDE WEEKEND: $1.79M (-16.8%)

THIRD WIDE WEEKEND: $1.47M (-17.5%)

FOURTH WIDE WEEKEND: $1.44M (-2.31%)

PROJECTED WIDE DOMESTIC TOTAL: $10M (4.67x)

 

 

For Summer game purposes I would love to see Turtles do that well but the first barely managed that multiplier in the barren depths of August

Me Before You will all depend on how the femalecentric audience reacts - does it play like the Notebook or Fault / Paper Towns / Twilight etc

Popstar looks good

Love & Friendship is low - thinking it could leg to 15m or so if it hangs around long enough

 

Keep up the good analysis you are getting better.

[filmlover]

I think Me Before You will end with a similar run to The Time Traveler's Wife ($18M/$63M).

[johnboy3434]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Love & Friendship is low - thinking it could leg to 15m or so if it hangs around long enough

 

Just in case I wasn't clear, the $10M is only for its wide release. The figure doesn't include the $4.88M that it has already made in limited release, or whatever it manages to make after it drops out of wide.

 

Edited June 7, 2016 by johnboy3434

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, johnboy3434 said:

 

Just in case I wasn't clear, the $10M is only for its wide release. The figure doesn't include the $4.88M that it has already made in limited release, or whatever it manages to make after it drops out of wide.

 

 

Cool - I wondered what you had figured that on lol but assumed it was the analysis table you have going on...

[department store basement]

2 hours ago, johnboy3434 said:

Because I feel like taking chances, here's my initial guesses for the weekend to weekend performances of all four new films.

 

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows

(based on Wrath of the Titans)

OPENING WEEKEND: $35.3M

SECOND WEEKEND: $15.5M (-56%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $8.49M (-45.4%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.03M (-28.9%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $5.05M (-16.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $103M (2.91x)

 

Me Before You

(based on Water for Elephants)

OPENING WEEKEND: $18.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $10.5M (-43.7%)

THIRD WEEKEND: $7.86M (-25.5%)

FOURTH WEEKEND: $6.07M (-22.8%)

FIFTH WEEKEND [FOUR-DAY]: $4.65M (-23.3%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $72.2M (3.85x)

 

Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping

(based on MacGruber)

OPENING WEEKEND: $4.7M

SECOND WEEKEND: $1.75M (-62.8%)

PROJECTED DOMESTIC TOTAL: $9.92M (2.11x)

 

If 9.92m happens Universal will just fudge it to 10m.

[Ezen Baklattan]

TMNT2 ain't having a sub 30% drop against Independence Day. First Class is probably a better comp in terms of legs (with the film even having the exact same release date 5 years ago)

[a2k]

I am impressed by APOC's drop.

 

WEEKEND NUMBER		Days of Future Past	Apocalypse
1		$90,823,660 5-25-14 / 1 3,996 / $22,729 - $90,823,660	$65,769,562 5-29-16 / 1 4,150 / $15,848 - $65,769,562
2		$32,551,098 6-1-14 / 2 4,001 / $8,136 -64.2% $162,020,201	$22,825,484 6-5-16 / 2 4,153 / $5,496 -65.3% $116,998,716
3		$15,154,814 6-8-14 / 4 3,639 / $4,165 -53.4% $189,556,080	-

 

Removing previews from OW DOFP fell 60.65%. APOC fell 60.36%.