Wrath Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 And, no, this will apparently not be our independence day. On Friday I asked the Wrathettes if they wanted to see ID:R. #2 said "Yeah, I guess", while #1 said "What movie? Oh, right. Nah". Not only were they not fired up to see it, they didn't really care if they saw it or not which is arguably even worse. So, just keep swimming, just keep swimming. Please provide your 7/1-3 Opening Weekend predicts for, BFG Tarzan Purge Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
department store basement Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Are we only doing 3-day? This will be a bloodbath. Purge: 22.3 million BFG: 20.0 million Tarzan: 16.9 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Purge: 24M BFG: 22M Tarzan: 19M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethan Hunt Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 (edited) Purge-23M Tarzan- 28M BFG- 18M Edited June 28, 2016 by Ethan Hunt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudalb Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 And the Blue Fish swims away with a third weekend in a row. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nova Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Three Day: The Purge: $21M The BFG: $19M Tarzan: $18.5M I see Dory, CI and The Shallows having decent holds for next weekend that would prevent bigger openings for these three films. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahnamahna Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 The BFG: $27 million The Purge 3: $21 million The Legend of Tarzan: $16.5 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 BFG - 29M Tarzan - 31M Purge - 21M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arlborn Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 Purge -22.3M Tarzan - 33.4M BFG - 25.8M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blankments Posted June 27, 2016 Share Posted June 27, 2016 The BFG - 34.366M The Purge: Election Year - 27.643M The Legend of Tarzan - 21.646M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PanaMovie Posted June 29, 2016 Share Posted June 29, 2016 The Legend of Tarzan - 25.47M The BFG - 26.80M The Purge 3 - 21.48M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Viceversa Posted June 30, 2016 Share Posted June 30, 2016 The BFG - 14.63M The Purge: Election Year - 22.99M The Legend of Tarzan - 17.18M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 Oops, dammit. I should probably have made this 4-day not 3-day. Well, we'll go with 3-day and see how it works out. If there aren't any 3-day predicts against which to compare, it might get thrown out. Anyway, here's mine: BFG - 24.5M Tarzan - 27.9M Purge - 17.3M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted June 30, 2016 Author Share Posted June 30, 2016 (edited) My bad, should have been 4-day, not 3-day as only ShowBuzzDaily did 3-days instead of 4-days. On the bright side, no one cares about this particular weekend as we can see from the immense predicting turnout. As an interesting note, we are *extremely* uncertain about Tarzan's take and *extremely* confident about The Purge. In fact, The Purge is one of the lowest Ratios we've ever had for an opening in that range. 8.82% is about what you'd expect from something in the 120-140M range, not a 20-ishM opener. Edit - After looking it up, its the 2nd lowest ratio we've ever had, below only Civil War. KFP3 and BvS are the only other movies we've had with a Ratio under 10%. As usual, I totaled all predicts (12 for everything) and here are the results: BFG Mean: 22.8M Median: 23.25M StnDev: 4.63M (revised StnDev: 4.48M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.92% High: 29M Low: 14.63M BO.com Deadline MovieWeb ShowBuzzDaily 20.5M Variety Tarzan Mean: 22M Median: 18.75M StnDev: 6.68M (revised StnDev: 9.72) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 35.63% High: 33.4M Low: 14M BO.com Deadline MovieWeb ShowBuzzDaily 18.5 Variety The Purge Mean: 21.6M Median: 21.89M StnDev: 1.93M (revised StnDev: 1.89) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 8.82% High: 24M Low: 17.3M BO.com Deadline MovieWeb ShowBuzzDaily 23 Variety Edited June 30, 2016 by Wrath 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wrath Posted July 6, 2016 Author Share Posted July 6, 2016 (edited) BFG Prediction: 23.25M +/- 4.63M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 19.8M (off by 4.5M, so 0.96 stndev) Well, not awful but not that good, either. I kinda set the cut-off at 1 standard deviation, so we just barely beat that. Sadly, we did rather worse than the one other site that did 3-day predicts (ShowBuzzDaily), though they're arguably the best of the sites. Unfortunately, this was our best showing of the weekend, by a lot. Nova had our best predict at 19m. Tarzan Prediction: 18.75M +/- 6.68M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 38.5M (off by 19.8M, so 2.96 stndev) Just awful. Really, really bad. We did do slightly better than ShowBuzzDaily, they were at 18.5M), but it was still a complete miss. Best predict was 33.4M by Arlborn, which was also our high predict. Purge: Election Prediction: 21.89M +/- 1.93M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 31.5M (off by 9.6M, so 4.98 stndev) Remember how I noted last week that Purge had one of our lowest Ratio's ever? And do you remember how at various times in the past I've noted how the more confident we are (low ratio) the worse we tend to do? Well, we pretty much experienced that here. It wasn't our worst predict ever (Walk has the honor) nor our second worst (Deadpool), but it was probably in the top 5. ShowBuzzDaily predicted 23m, so they sucked too, albeit slightly less than us. Best predict was WrathofHan with (lol) 24M. Yes, really. Feel free to laugh it up, but everyone else was even worse. Edited July 6, 2016 by Wrath 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
