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Wrath

BOT User Tracking 7/1-3 BFG, Tarzan, Purge

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And, no, this will apparently not be our independence day. On Friday I asked the Wrathettes if they wanted to see ID:R. #2 said "Yeah, I guess", while #1 said "What movie? Oh, right. Nah". Not only were they not fired up to see it, they didn't really care if they saw it or not which is arguably even worse.

 

So, just keep swimming, just keep swimming.

 

Please provide your 7/1-3 Opening Weekend predicts for, 

BFG

Tarzan

Purge

 

Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

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Oops, dammit. I should probably have made this 4-day not 3-day. 

 

Well, we'll go with 3-day and see how it works out. If there aren't any 3-day predicts against which to compare, it might get thrown out.

 

Anyway, here's mine:

 

BFG - 24.5M

Tarzan - 27.9M

Purge - 17.3M

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My bad, should have been 4-day, not 3-day as only ShowBuzzDaily did 3-days instead of 4-days. On the bright side, no one cares about this particular weekend as we can see from the immense predicting turnout.

 

As an interesting note, we are *extremely* uncertain about Tarzan's take and *extremely* confident about The Purge. In fact, The Purge is one of the lowest Ratios we've ever had for an opening in that range. 8.82% is about what you'd expect from something in the 120-140M range, not a 20-ishM opener.

 

Edit - After looking it up, its the 2nd lowest ratio we've ever had, below only Civil War. KFP3 and BvS are the only other movies we've had with a Ratio under 10%.

 

As usual, I totaled all predicts (12 for everything) and here are the results: 

 

BFG

Mean: 22.8M

Median: 23.25M

StnDev: 4.63M (revised StnDev: 4.48M)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.92%

High: 29M

Low: 14.63M

 

BO.com 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 

ShowBuzzDaily 20.5M

Variety 

 

Tarzan

Mean: 22M

Median: 18.75M

StnDev: 6.68M (revised StnDev: 9.72)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 35.63%

High: 33.4M

Low: 14M

 

BO.com  

Deadline 

MovieWeb 

ShowBuzzDaily 18.5

Variety 

 

The Purge

Mean: 21.6M

Median: 21.89M

StnDev: 1.93M (revised StnDev: 1.89)

Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 8.82%

High: 24M

Low: 17.3M

 

BO.com 

Deadline 

MovieWeb 

ShowBuzzDaily 23

Variety 

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BFG

Prediction: 23.25M +/- 4.63M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 19.8M (off by 4.5M, so 0.96 stndev)

Well, not awful but not that good, either. I kinda set the cut-off at 1 standard deviation, so we just barely beat that. Sadly, we did rather worse than the one other site that did 3-day predicts (ShowBuzzDaily), though they're arguably the best of the sites. Unfortunately, this was our best showing of the weekend, by a lot. Nova had our best predict at 19m.

Tarzan

Prediction: 18.75M +/- 6.68M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 38.5M (off by 19.8M, so 2.96 stndev)

Just awful. Really, really bad. We did do slightly better than ShowBuzzDaily, they were at 18.5M), but it was still a complete miss. Best predict was 33.4M by Arlborn, which was also our high predict.

Purge: Election

Prediction: 21.89M +/- 1.93M (1 standard deviation)

Actual: 31.5M (off by 9.6M, so 4.98 stndev)

Remember how I noted last week that Purge had one of our lowest Ratio's ever? And do you remember how at various times in the past I've noted how the more confident we are (low ratio) the worse we tend to do? Well, we pretty much experienced that here. It wasn't our worst predict ever (Walk has the honor) nor our second worst (Deadpool), but it was probably in the top 5. ShowBuzzDaily predicted 23m, so they sucked too, albeit slightly less than us. Best predict was WrathofHan with (lol) 24M. Yes, really. Feel free to laugh it up, but everyone else was even worse.

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