2021: Box Office Apocalypse?

[cannastop]

It's no secret that the biggest hits of 2016 are animated features and superhero movies, many of which were successful to a surprising degree.

 

However, I wonder if there will be a dead spot in the box office, when the old movies' followups can't compare to their originals, and audiences ignore new concepts.

 

Take for example, comic book movies. Batman v Superman faded away quickly due to negative reactions, and it looks like Suicide Squad might follow in its path.

Captain America: Civil War dropped significantly from Age of Ultron, and I doubt that further movies involving the Avengers will reverse this trend. And we must consider that Robert Downey Jr. might get too old to play Iron Man and keep the audience's interest.

 

The issue is that box office growth is driven by outsize success. The DC movies are not finding the same audience that Christopher Nolan's Batman movies did, and Marvel's Avengers are slowly declining. And without surprise successes, ticket revenue might even decrease.

 

If TFA only made $400m and Jurassic World only made $300m, the total box office for movies released in 2015 would have been about $10.2 billion, a decline from 2015. And that is the kind of box office we are going to see if franchises decline and if there are fewer breakouts.

 

Why 2021? Because no one knows what is scheduled for that year, outside of the 10th Fast and Furious movie. Maybe something truly original and broadly appealing will come out then and keep everyone happy.

Edited August 6, 2016 by cannastop

[AniNate]

I don't know, but the future slate looks pretty dire overall 

[mrqe93]

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Edited September 3, 2016 by mrqe93

[lab276]

There hasn't been any real box office growth since 2002. The downward trend has been pretty steady since then, it's probably the feast or famine nature of the industry that's making things worse.

[cannastop]

39 minutes ago, lab276 said:

There hasn't been any real box office growth since 2002. The downward trend has been pretty steady since then, it's probably the feast or famine nature of the industry that's making things worse.

But there has been growth in revenue. I'm speculating that revenue itself might decline.

[Rorschach]

It's a slippery slope right now in Hollywood. I don't see them correcting it anytime soon.

[peludo]

The lack of ideas is alarming. You can not trust forever in squeezing the same formulas because people get tired: a sequel, then a threequel, later a spin-off, reboots, remakes. There have been 3 original successes this year: Zootopia, Deadpool and Pets. All of them will have a sequel for sure. And maybe more than one sequel.

 

And there is another factor: many people already have better home cinema systems than many theaters. It is becoming more interesting to see films at home instead at theaters. I prefer to go to the cinema, but I can understand that other way.

[Kalo]

On 8/6/2016 at 4:30 PM, peludo said:

The lack of ideas is alarming. You can not trust forever in squeezing the same formulas because people get tired: a sequel, then a threequel, later a spin-off, reboots, remakes. There have been 3 original successes this year: Zootopia, Deadpool and Pets. All of them will have a sequel for sure. And maybe more than one sequel.

 

And there is another factor: many people already have better home cinema systems than many theaters. It is becoming more interesting to see films at home instead at theaters. I prefer to go to the cinema, but I can understand that other way.

 

If your's going to call Deadpool original then Jungle Book fits that bill, they are both based on books/comics. so it's two really. 

[cannastop]

bump

[Avatree]

2021 now looks quite strong.

 

Avatar 2 is set to definitely release, so we could have a new king of the world.

 

In terms of Marvel:

On 8/5/2016 at 9:20 PM, cannastop said:

Captain America: Civil War dropped significantly from Age of Ultron, and I doubt that further movies involving the Avengers will reverse this trend. And we must consider that Robert Downey Jr. might get too old to play Iron Man and keep the audience's interest.

 

To somewhat surprise, the opposite has happened. 

Marvel will release Thor 4, and Doctor Strange & Scarlet Witch movie. And Shang-Chi their first Chinese superhero.

 

For DC, there is a new Batman film, and a Suicide Squad reboot.

 

There's Jurassic World 3, after JW2 did well despite predictions that it would plummet from the first. 

 

Good year for Action genre:

Fast and Furious 10, another Billie for that.

Mission Impossible 7, after MI6's franchise heights.

John Wick 4, a new franchise has been cemented and probably grows again.

Indiana Jones 5 is scheduled for this year, and Ford and Spielberg have said they intend to shoot in 2020.

 

Animation wise:

Not much announced but slots are there for

- Paramount animation

- Boss Baby 2

- Hotel transylvania 4

- Tom & Jerry

- Pixar film

- WDAS film

 

PLUS all the unannounced films, and pencilled in "DC live action", "Disney live action" etc.

I suppose one of those Disneys will be THe Little Mermaid.

 

 

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, Avatree said:

2021 now looks quite strong.

 

Avatar 2 is set to definitely release, so we could have a new king of the world.

 

In terms of Marvel:

 

To somewhat surprise, the opposite has happened. 

Marvel will release Thor 4, and Doctor Strange & Scarlet Witch movie. And Shang-Chi their first Chinese superhero.

 

For DC, there is a new Batman film, and a Suicide Squad reboot.

 

There's Jurassic World 3, after JW2 did well despite predictions that it would plummet from the first. 

 

Good year for Action genre:

Fast and Furious 10, another Billie for that.

Mission Impossible 7, after MI6's franchise heights.

John Wick 4, a new franchise has been cemented and probably grows again.

Indiana Jones 5 is scheduled for this year, and Ford and Spielberg have said they intend to shoot in 2020.

 

Animation wise:

Not much announced but slots are there for

- Paramount animation

- Boss Baby 2

- Hotel transylvania 4

- Tom & Jerry

- Pixar film

- WDAS film

 

PLUS all the unannounced films, and pencilled in "DC live action", "Disney live action" etc.

I suppose one of those Disneys will be THe Little Mermaid.

 

 

Yeah I guess this is all true.

[Kalo]

Yeah, 2021 is looking pretty strong now. much stronger then 2020.

[cannastop]

5 minutes ago, Kalo said:

Yeah, 2021 is looking pretty strong now. much stronger then 2020.

2020 is looking pretty damn bad tbh.

[lilmac]

Strange thread, projecting out 5 years. It's like us speculating about the 2024 slate. No one knows what that looks like. There could be franchise launched in 2022 with a surefire hit of a sequel scheduled for 2024.