Weekend Thread | Estimates SS 43.7m, SP 33.6m, PD 21.5, JCIJB 13.6m, BM 11.45m, SLOP 8.8m, STD 6.8m, FFJ 6.58m

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

It's worth pointing out that those audience metrics are almost entirely fan-driven. So while they may be an accurate representation of the fans, I'm not convinced they're an accurate reflection of the general audience. It was well-received, of course, but not universally so.

Not trying to start a DC vs Marvel thing. But what does that say about BvS who's user ratings are 6.9 on IMDb and 65% on Flixster as well as Suicide Squad which is already down to 6.9 on IMDb and down to 70% on Flixster....do we assume that DC fans weren't satisfied with those two films since those sites are like you said driven by the fans? Especially when you compare those scores to other comic book films. 

[WrathOfHan]

Fortunately most of Phase 3 won't be reliant on previous knowledge:

 

Doctor Strange could potentially introduce the Time Stone otherwise it's singular.

GOTG will have zero connections, maybe some Infinity War setup at the end so the Guardians can get to Earth.

Spider-Man will be singular outside of Tony Stark.

Thor will have a lot of setup but it'll only require knowledge of TDW and AOU, who knows how it affects legs.

Black Panther should have no connections.

Infinity War and the 2019 Avengers will obviously be frontloaded.

Too early to say how Ant-Man and Captain Marvel will connect.

[baumer]

Anyway, I am sorry for bringing this to light again.  Civil War should not be dominating a thread about weekend numbers,  It had its run.

[superweirdo87]

Just now, Baumer loves Dory said:

Anyway, I am sorry for bringing this to light again.  Civil War should not be dominating a thread about weekend numbers,  It had its run.

 

Or 99+% of it...;)

[Nova]

Just now, Baumer loves Dory said:

Anyway, I am sorry for bringing this to light again.  Civil War should not be dominating a thread about weekend numbers,  It had its run.

This will never end. Just like the discussion over MoS will never end. It must be brought up in every thread. It's no fault of yours, of course. 

[Dementeleus]

Just now, Nova said:

Not trying to start a DC vs Marvel thing. But what does that say about BvS who's user ratings are 6.9 on IMDb and 65% on Flixster as well as Suicide Squad which is already down to 6.9 on IMDb and down to 70% on Flixster....do we assume that DC fans weren't satisfied with those two films since those sites are like you said driven by the fans? Especially when you compare those scores to other comic book films. 

 

I'm not trying to make that comparison: obviously BVS and SS were a lot more divisive within their respective fanbases, in addition to not being well received overall. However, the slight mitigating factor for them is that you didn't need to watch a dozen movies to figure out the story. In that respect, they're somewhat more audience-friendly to casual movie-goers (an advantage they didn't use effectively, since the reaction was wildly mixed at best).

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fortunately most of Phase 3 won't be reliant on previous knowledge:

 

Doctor Strange could potentially introduce the Time Stone otherwise it's singular.

GOTG will have zero connections, maybe some Infinity War setup at the end so the Guardians can get to Earth.

Spider-Man will be singular outside of Tony Stark.

Thor will have a lot of setup but it'll only require knowledge of TDW and AOU, who knows how it affects legs.

Black Panther should have no connections.

Infinity War and the 2019 Avengers will obviously be frontloaded.

Too early to say how Ant-Man and Captain Marvel will connect.

 

Five of your seven examples have qualifiers.  I'm an extreme case so I know I'm not a great example of the GA, but each and every one of those qualifiers diminishes my theoretical interest in those movies. But in general, the more these movies interlink, the greater the excitement from the fans but also the gradual lessening of interest from people who casually see them.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I'm not trying to make that comparison: obviously BVS and SS were a lot more divisive within their respective fanbases, in addition to not being well received overall. However, the slight mitigating factor for them is that you didn't need to watch a dozen movies to figure out the story. In that respect, they're somewhat more audience-friendly to casual movie-goers (an advantage they didn't use effectively, since the reaction was wildly mixed at best).

Gotcha. I agree with that, especially your latter part. 

[superweirdo87]

3 minutes ago, Tele the Jet Baller said:

 

I'm not trying to make that comparison: obviously BVS and SS were a lot more divisive within their respective fanbases, in addition to not being well received overall. However, the slight mitigating factor for them is that you didn't need to watch a dozen movies to figure out the story. In that respect, they're somewhat more audience-friendly to casual movie-goers (an advantage they didn't use effectively, since the reaction was wildly mixed at best).

 

Although, some argue that DC comics movies have a lot of nods and references to comic stuff that makes them less accessible. The flash vision and darkseid allusions in BvS.

[Dementeleus]

Just now, superweirdo87 said:

 

Although, some argue that DC comics movies have a lot of nods and references to comic stuff that makes them less accessible. The flash vision and darkseid allusions in BvS.

 

That's true, although it's relatively minimal. I think I'm a decent example, because I know nothing at all about any of that stuff. That scene was a giant WTF... but it was only one scene.

[EmpireCity]

4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Just my quick comment on the Civil War legs.

 

Of the course the movie being the 14th(?) movie of the franchise played an affect on its legs.  Especially when you had to have seen 5 other films to even have a chance at really being able to follow along.  I've seen all of the Marvel movies and I was still left scratching my head at parts trying to jog my memory.

 

You have to be a fan of the Marvel franchise to like Civil War (or you have to at least have seen the movies).  That's not necessarily bad, but it is going to shorten legs because somebody who hasn't seen any Marvel film isn't going to give it a shot because their friends liked it.  

 

It's like somebody who had never seen Game of Thrones trying to start at Season 6 episodes 9 and 10.  While those two episodes are universally acclaimed as some of the best of the series (and some of the best hours of television ever put to screen), you won't appreciate them (or watch them) if you haven't seen the 58 episodes that preceded them.  

 

The MCU has essentially turned into a TV series for Cinema.  While a few movies you can watch as standalones now (like GOTG or Ant-Man, which both had great legs for comic book movies), the majority are too interconnected to do so.  It's both a fundamental flaw in the MCU strategy as well as why it's so successful.

 

This is one of the reasons I am adamant that GOTG 2 is going to do better than the first by a good margin while some are not so sure it will increase.  You only have to see 1 previous very entertaining movie to know what is going on.  It is as of now completely disconnected from the Marvel Universe (for audience purposes) and will be much easier to pick up casual movie goers.  

[moviesRus]

5 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

The box office doesn't equate to positive feedback.  The multiplier for CW both here and internationally was really small.  I think it grossed something like 500 million internationally in it's first two weekends and then only 250 million in the rest of its run.  Those legs were shaky everywhere.  

 

The cinemascore I put no stock in.  We've covered this before.  Cinemascore is done by one theater and while it is at least something to go on, it really doesn't mean much.  Wolf of Wall Street had a C cinemascore and a 5 multiplier.  This is just one example.  Yes, critics loved it and the audience scores are good as well.  So I can't argue there.  But everything we are basing this on is registered on line.  Sometimes its not just the internet community you go by, but if that is a must, then what I like to do is filter out the reviews on imdb.  If you filter them out and go chronologically, the reviews are absolutely split.  I don't think this is simply anecdotal evidence.  I think there's enough here to show that there has to be some merit to it.  I think CW may have pleased a lot of the Marvel fans/loonies, but not the casual movie goer, hence the bad multiplier.

 

I respect your opinion Nile, I just don't care for being called silly.  

 

The thing is being a later entry in a long running series has an affect on WOM. Deathly Hallows was a confusing bore for my friend who wasn't already a die-hard HP fan, as you would expect. I'm sure Civil War felt the same way to people who weren't well-versed in the Marvel movies. That's simply the nature of long running franchises. I wouldn't be surprised if most of the WOM even from people who loved it was "it was great, but if you haven't seen the other films, you'll be lost". 

 

I would say letterboxd is the most reasonable review site for casual fans although it has a smaller voting membership (whereas RT and IMDB definitely have a major fanboy lean) and CW still is easily the highest rated blockbuster of the year. In fact, the only wide release that has it beat is Zootopia. 

[CJohn]

8 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Fortunately most of Phase 3 won't be reliant on previous knowledge:

 

Doctor Strange could potentially introduce the Time Stone otherwise it's singular.

GOTG will have zero connections, maybe some Infinity War setup at the end so the Guardians can get to Earth.

Spider-Man will be singular outside of Tony Stark.

Thor will have a lot of setup but it'll only require knowledge of TDW and AOU, who knows how it affects legs.

Black Panther should have no connections.

Infinity War and the 2019 Avengers will obviously be frontloaded.

Too early to say how Ant-Man and Captain Marvel will connect.

Winter Soldier will be in Black Panther so yeah...

[ecstasy]

So SS will beat SP by how much today? They were neck and neck for Friday. That's with SP's previews included.

[EmpireCity]

16 minutes ago, Baumer loves Dory said:

The box office doesn't equate to positive feedback.  The multiplier for CW both here and internationally was really small.  I think it grossed something like 500 million internationally in it's first two weekends and then only 250 million in the rest of its run.  Those legs were shaky everywhere.  

 

The cinemascore I put no stock in.  We've covered this before.  Cinemascore is done by one theater and while it is at least something to go on, it really doesn't mean much.  Wolf of Wall Street had a C cinemascore and a 5 multiplier.  This is just one example.  Yes, critics loved it and the audience scores are good as well.  So I can't argue there.  But everything we are basing this on is registered on line.  Sometimes its not just the internet community you go by, but if that is a must, then what I like to do is filter out the reviews on imdb.  If you filter them out and go chronologically, the reviews are absolutely split.  I don't think this is simply anecdotal evidence.  I think there's enough here to show that there has to be some merit to it.  I think CW may have pleased a lot of the Marvel fans/loonies, but not the casual movie goer, hence the bad multiplier.

 

I respect your opinion Nile, I just don't care for being called silly.  

 

I don't put a ton into Cinemascore either or some of those other things individually like Tele mentioned, but add them all up collectively and it usually gives you a pretty good overall picture.  

 

I respect you as well and wasn't calling you silly, but more the idea of it silly like the TFA supposed backlash.  Sorry if that came off wrong and wasn't trying to call you as a person silly.  

[Haley Ross]

18 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CW had weak legs because:

 

1. The movie didn't have a high rewatchability factor

2. There was no appeal to outsiders; you have to be invested in the MCU to understand what's going on

 

CW didn't have any backlash.

 

Agreed. I also think that both decisions were made very consciously by Marvel.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, ecstasy said:

So SS will beat SP by how much today? They were neck and neck for Friday. That's with SP's previews included.

@nilephelan

[CJohn]

3 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

 

I don't put a ton into Cinemascore either or some of those other things individually like Tele mentioned, but add them all up collectively and it usually gives you a pretty good overall picture.  

 

I respect you as well and wasn't calling you silly, but more the idea of it silly like the TFA supposed backlash.  Sorry if that came off wrong and wasn't trying to call you as a person silly.  

There are members of this forum claiming people didnt like TFA? That is a very insane thing to say. Legs were marvelous. WOM seemed to be quite fantastic. 

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Winter Soldier will be in Black Panther so yeah...

Are we sure they won't dive into that until Infinity War? We've heard nothing about returning MCU actors yet.

[moviesRus]

Do we have any other example of a very latter movie (5+) in a serialized franchise that had good legs? The Force Awakens maybe? Although I'd say the huge time gap between ROTJ and TFA made it very easy for newcomers to get into it. I guess I would count Jason Bourne as an example of this type of movie, although its legs are definitely being affected by its middling reviews/quality. The only other strongly reviewed example I can think of is Harry Potter, which of course had terrible legs as well.