Week 46

[AndyLL]

http://derby.boxofficetheory.com/Predictions.aspx

 

 

[Rolling Thunder]

Anyone else having problems entering predictions?

Edited November 9, 2016 by Rolling Thunder

[8wombi7]

yeah, looks like its not open yet.

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Anyone else having problems entering predictions?

 

@AndyLL I couldn't pull up the prediction page either

[AndyLL]

3 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Anyone else having problems entering predictions?

 

11 minutes ago, 8wombi7 said:

yeah, looks like its not open yet.

 

9 minutes ago, POTUS said:

 

@AndyLL I couldn't pull up the prediction page either

 

Fixed

[aabattery]

It's telling me predictions are closed now. @AndyLL

Edited November 9, 2016 by AABATTERY

[AndyLL]

Anyone else?  It works for me after my fix.

[aabattery]

@AndyLL It's working now!

[POTUS 2020]

Going to be a wild week with predictions all over the place for the 3 releases by the "experts"(lol) and the derby players(our average picks continue to outperform the pros).

The pros have

Arrival ranges from 14-25m

AC 9-16m

SI 2.8-6m

50% of schools are out today. DS and Trolls should really benefit as well HR being that it s Vets Day. We mite see some big holds from them.

 

From BOM

Thor: The Dark World dropped 52% from Sunday to Monday while Doctor Strange dropped 71%, the second largest Sunday-to-first-Monday drop for a Marvel single-character intro. While Strange bounced back on Tuesday and Dark World continued to slide there's reason to expect that drop could mean the difference between Strange pulling in a second weekend just over $40 million rather than just below.

 

Brad failed to realize that Thor dropped 52% on Monday due vets day on the 11th, and failed to realize the bump DS will get today

 

An examination of pre-release IMDb page view data against titles such as Elysium ($29.8m opening) and Edge of Tomorrow ($28.7m opening) show the film carrying a similar pace at the same point in the release cycle. Additionally, online ticket seller Fandango.com says the film is currently outselling Edge of Tomorrow at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle. While Cruise and Blunt may carry a bit more box office weight than Arrival's Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner, those figures can't be ignored, which is why we're expecting an opening around $25 million this weekend.

 

Could be another mid 20s opener that's been a popular number this fall

 

The next new wide release on the board is proving a bit difficult to forecast. Directed by David E. Talbert (Baggage Claim), the ensemble holiday comedy Almost Christmas is looking like a film that could open anywhere from $9-15 million. Universal is expecting an opening in the low-to-mid teens, which would seem reasonable given the timing and cast, but to look at page view data on IMDb, this one has even fallen behind Baggage Claim, which opened with $9 million and isn't close to performing similar to the likes of A Madea Christmas ($16m opening), The Wedding Ringer ($20.6m opening) or The Best Man Holiday ($30m opening). That, however, isn't the end of the story.

 

Could be a derby kiiler

 

From there we have a batch of films that should make anywhere from $2.5-4 million and among that lot is the last of the weekend's new wide releases, EuropaCorp's thriller Shut In starring Naomi Watts. Much like Relativity's The Disappointments Room, little was known of this one before the studio began a late marketing push. As a result, it isn't pacing well as IMDb data merely shows a big spike upon the film's late August trailer debut after which it wasn't even able to keep pace with Disappointments Room until only recently. The fact it is in more theaters than Disappointments Room means it most likely won't be quite the box office disaster that one was, but an opening around $2.5-3 million seems incredibly likely.

 

Possibly a bigger derby killer

 

Derby Sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17SXalcY1apuZDYuQa63BrXS54ZBEW3KsBlxtqByBAGc/edit?usp=sharing

 

Cheer up

Trump is going to do some great things

I hope

Edited November 11, 2016 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

 

1	Bates	94.97
2	TalismanRing	94.78
3	boxofficeth	93.77
4	CoolEric258	92.80
5	kayumanggi	92.36
6	Viceversa	91.92
7	Exxdee	91.89
8	Jason	91.53
9	Spectre	91.32
10	PanaMovie	91.27
11	darkelf	91.11
12	Boxx93	91.08
13	Simionski	90.66
14	ShinyDave	89.92
15	AndyLL	89.41
16	POTUS	89.01
17	Tower	88.92
18	Matrix4You	88.54
19	moviecriticguy	88.01
20	Derby Average	87.53
21	luxneji	87.26
22	Padre	87.16
23	8wombi7	86.74
24	CJohn	86.71
25	a2knet	86.60
26	ChipMunky	85.60
27	nelmsey	84.59
28	WrathOfHan	84.54
29	cannastop	84.36
30	Wildbill	84.04
31	Blankments	83.88
32	harryHERTZ	82.56
33	AABATTERY	81.69
34	Rolling Thunder	81.29
35	dnr 3301	76.06
36	Lights Camera Action	75.92

 

[aabattery]

lol

[POTUS 2020]

1	Bates	92.07
2	TalismanRing	91.75
3	Viceversa	90.86
4	CoolEric258	90.13
5	Simionski	89.98
6	Matrix4You	89.19
7	Boxx93	88.73
8	boxofficeth	88.71
9	Exxdee	88.22
10	kayumanggi	88.19
11	PanaMovie	88.00
12	ShinyDave	87.65
13	Jason	87.61
14	Blankments	87.39
15	Spectre	87.35
16	Tower	87.14
17	luxneji	87.03
18	CJohn	86.60
19	darkelf	86.40
20	a2knet	86.04
21	POTUS	85.99
22	AndyLL	85.14
23	Derby Average	85.01
24	WrathOfHan	84.37
25	ChipMunky	84.10
26	cannastop	83.92
27	harryHERTZ	83.80
28	nelmsey	83.56
29	moviecriticguy	83.54
30	8wombi7	83.21
31	Padre	81.89
32	dnr 3301	80.78
33	Wildbill	80.46
34	AABATTERY	78.69
35	Rolling Thunder	76.61
36	Lights Camera Action	76.28

 

 

[WrathOfHan]

23	Derby Average	85.01
24	WrathOfHan	84.37

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

12 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

23	Derby Average	85.01
24	WrathOfHan	84.37

 

 

Don't feel so bad The DA beat nearly all of us. I just noticed that the prediction average hadn't updated yet when I created the sheet. A lot of last minute adjustments and new entries I guess and Andy's supercomputer is from the 70's, takes a while to tabulate.  91.59 is the DA score, 3rd. The DA pick continues to kick ass.

 

[TalismanRing]

@AndyLL

 

 

1	(1)	Doctor Strange	Walt Disney	$42,970,065	-49%	3,882	$11,069	$152,952,234	10
2	(2)	Trolls	20th Century Fox	$34,979,577	- 25%	4,066	$8,603	$93,943,892	10
3	new	Arrival	Paramount Pictures	$24,074,047		2,317	$10,390	$24,074,047	3
4	new	Almost Christmas	Universal	$15,134,235		2,376	$6,370	$15,134,235	3
5	(3)	Hacksaw Ridge	Lionsgate	$10,630,873	30%	2,971	$3,578	$32,120,194	10
6	(6)	The Accountant	Warner Bros.	$4,412,248	-25%	2,342	$1,884	$77,568,003	31
7	(4)	Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Made…	Lionsgate	$3,519,903	-54%	2,104	$1,673	$70,377,982	24
8	new	Shut In	EuropaCorp	$3,502,440		2,058	$1,702	$3,502,440	3
9	(7)	Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	Paramount Pictures	$3,303,081	-39%	2,584	$1,278	$54,564,792	24
10	(5)	Inferno	Sony Pictures	$3,260,497	-47%	2,656	$1,228	$31,592,512	17

[dxmatrixdt]

BOM changed Shut In to 3.61.  other websites have it at 3.50.  perhaps its too late to change anything, just fyi

[AndyLL]

18 minutes ago, Matrix4You said:

BOM changed Shut In to 3.61.  other websites have it at 3.50.  perhaps its too late to change anything, just fyi

 

Not to late.  Didn't change the winner.

 

[AndyLL]

Congrats @Bates

 

	1	Bates	92.646%	91.214%	93.260%	6.504%	35	10
	2	TalismanRing	92.346%	92.600%	92.237%	6.204%	34	10
	3	Viceversa	90.837%	92.358%	90.185%	4.695%	33	10
	4	CoolEric258	90.624%	87.869%	91.805%	4.483%	32	10
	5	Simionski	90.457%	84.052%	93.203%	4.316%	31	10
	6	Matrix4You	89.691%	88.959%	90.005%	3.550%	30	10
	7	boxofficeth	89.661%	90.612%	89.254%	3.520%	29	10
	8	Boxx93	89.562%	86.777%	90.755%	3.420%	28	10
	9	PanaMovie	88.931%	77.866%	93.673%	2.789%	27	10
	10	Exxdee	88.526%	85.891%	89.655%	2.385%	26	10
	11	kayumanggi	88.516%	90.958%	87.469%	2.374%	25	10
	12	Jason	88.360%	85.245%	89.695%	2.218%	24	10
	13	Spectre	88.315%	90.741%	87.275%	2.173%	23	10
	14	ShinyDave	88.085%	82.011%	90.688%	1.943%	22	10
	15	darkelf	87.200%	85.675%	87.853%	1.058%	21	10
	16	Tower	86.956%	83.055%	88.628%	0.814%	20	10
	17	POTUS	86.837%	71.532%	93.396%	0.695%	19	10
	18	luxneji	86.829%	85.134%	87.556%	0.688%	18	10
	19	CJohn	86.614%	69.796%	93.822%	0.472%	17	10
	20	a2knet	86.371%	89.033%	85.230%	0.230%	16	10

[8wombi7]

going low on Almost Christmas and Shut In didn't pay off this week.

 

@Bates strikes again, congrats!