Tues #s (Asgard pg 136) R1 22.4 Sing 17.7 Pass 6 Moan 4.6 Ass 3.6 WH 3.4 Fen 3.1 LLL 2.6

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

5 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

It's so easy to say that now. You have no idea how much RO is benefiting in the afterglow of TFA. SW is clearly strong, can't really debate that but saturation does set in eventually and it's something none of you are considering really. I still do see a decent drop from TFA.

I've always considered it. If you look back at my post history, I've always thought VIII was in for a bigger drop than most. But I don't think VIII is when we'll see saturation kick in. Too much working for it, IMO. Plus, it helps that I think it'll be really, really good. RO being a massive hit (being helped by TFA, a la post-Avengers movies, aside) shows that there is a real thirst from the GA for SW movies. But then again, the decent drop you're saying could be totally rational. I still don't think it will do 800m+, although it's SW, so it's certainly possible.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Jayhawk

[RyneOh1040]

20 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

Please stop, you sound insane. This is nothing like TDK or F7.

i would argue the same if you think those deaths will have lesser effects than this.

Edited December 27, 2016 by RyneOh1040

[TommyA10]

2 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

It's so easy to say that now. You have no idea how much RO is benefiting in the afterglow of TFA. SW is clearly strong, can't really debate that but saturation does set in eventually and it's something none of you are considering really. I still do see a decent drop from TFA.

We've had dozens of MCU movies in past several years and superhero fatigue doesn't seem to be on the horizon... 

Especially conside holiday releases lend themselves to great legs (RO is heading for at least a 3.4x multiplier).

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

I've always considered it. If you look back at my post history, I've always thought VIII was in for a bigger drop than most. But I don't think VIII is when we'll see saturation kick in. Too much working for it, IMO. Plus, it helps that I think it'll be really, really good. RO being a massive hit (being helped by TFA, a la post-Avengers movies, aside) shows that there is a real thirst from the GA for SW movies.

AOU, IM2 both had a lot going for them... 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

AOU, IM2 both had a lot going for them... 

Like how low do you think it will go? I think mid-600s is pretty much the floor. Still not thinking 800m+, but that could happen if it really connects with the GA.

Edited December 27, 2016 by Jayhawk

[Jandrew]

Guess I have to go ahead and prepare for a breakdown after Episode 8. I have a year. Furious 7 tore me up man. Now this.

 

RIP Carrie.

[Nova]

Rogue One's performance is showing just how popular the Star Wars franchise is in North America. Not be disrespectful to Paul Walker but if his death can boost the Furious franchise to the OW it had after he died, im failing to see how Carrie Fisher, an icon, won't have a tremendous effect on Star Wars OW next year. Last year TFA made almost a billion dollars domestically. $300M OW is not out of the question. 

[GiantCALBears]

Just now, TommyA10 said:

We've had dozens of MCU movies in past several years and superhero fatigue doesn't seem to be on the horizon... 

Especially conside holiday releases lend themselves to great legs (RO is heading for at least a 3.4x multiplier).

We are talking more about the opening, clearly the legs will be strong (although likely weaker than both TFA & R1).

[TommyA10]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

AOU, IM2 both had a lot going for them... 

Again, summer releases. If E8 opens to "mere" $185m, it'll probably end up grossing $650m+.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, Jayhawk said:

Like how low do you think it will go? I think mid-600s is pretty much the floor. Still not thinking 800m+, but that could happen if it really connects with the GA.

I'll go with $650- $700m? Still a $200m+ decline from TFA.

[Lordmandeep]

 

3 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

AOU, IM2 both had a lot going for them... 

 

 

 

Using that logic the biggest drop is TPM to AOTC at 28%.

 

There is no reason to suggest it can drop more...

[franfar]

I don't know if her passing will have that much of an effect on BO... I feel like TFA is peak BO

 

The difference btwn the deaths of Walker and Fisher is F&F went from average hype to peak hype. Newer moviegoers that didn't really watch the franchise were compelled to see it.

 

TFA already had such hype in the leadup to the release, b/c it was the first release in a decade. Combine that w/the original cast & critical acclaim, which led to it becoming a roaring success.

 

There will be a beautiful tribute in Ep. VIII, but that won't bring in newer people

[GiantCALBears]

You guys saying $300m OW is a possibility need to lay off the peyote. I'll bet you whatever $ and give odds as we get closer. It undermines how crazy TFA was even as a SW film.

[Mr Terrific]

Saturation is a valid thing to discuss, but the SW franchise can play out the next few years with each December being the cinematic Super Bowl. 

 

(If Han Solo solo moves to 12/18.)

[BadAtGender]

VIII has a realistic shot at a billion, now. 

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, fracfar said:

I don't know if her passing will have that much of an effect on BO... I feel like TFA is peak BO

 

The difference btwn the deaths of Walker and Fisher is F&F went from average hype to peak hype. Newer moviegoers that didn't really watch the franchise were compelled to see it.

 

TFA already had such hype in the leadup to the release, b/c it was the first release in a decade. Combine that w/the original cast & critical acclaim, which led to it becoming a roaring success.

 

There will be a beautiful tribute in Ep. VIII, but that won't bring in newer people

Thanks for making my point better than I could man. A bit frustrated with these EP8 OW hot takes on Fisher's death.

[GiantCALBears]

1 minute ago, DamienRoc said:

VIII has a realistic shot at a billion, now. 

No it doesn't lol.

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

I'll go with $650- $700m? Still a $200m+ decline from TFA.

Oh ok. Don't thinks that's too bad of a drop honestly. But I wasn't one to freak out over AOU's drop from Avengers.

[franfar]

6 minutes ago, TommyA10 said:

We've had dozens of MCU movies in past several years and superhero fatigue doesn't seem to be on the horizon... 

Especially conside holiday releases lend themselves to great legs (RO is heading for at least a 3.4x multiplier).

The legs for MCU films are having mediocre legs though, b/c the only way you can understand the films are if you watch every movie that came before. Only fanboys do that, not general movie audiences. The same may happen for Star Wars.

 

That is saturation

[Nova]

1 minute ago, GiantCALBears said:

You guys saying $300m OW is a possibility need to lay off the peyote. I'll bet you whatever $ and give odds as we get closer. It undermines how crazy TFA was even as a SW film.

Princess Leia is an iconic character. Go look at social media and see the type of effect her death has had on folks who aren't even huge Star Wars fans. You're talking about one of the most iconic film characters of our time. A 35% OW off of TFA's total gross is not out of the question. It just means the legs won't be as good.