Weekend Estimates: Lego Batman 55.6M, 50 Shades 46.7M, John Wick 2 30M

[mahnamahna]

LEGO Batman should still do $56-63 million OW. That puts it on pace for $190-250 million DOM - solid for a mid-budget February animated film.

 

50 Shades could hit $47 million OW with a $21 million Fri. That'd likely put it on track for $105-110 million DOM. 

 

John Wick surprising everyone with a $27-32 million OW. $75 million+ DOM is solid considering it's a sequel to a film that never really got huge. I wasn't expecting Chapter Two to potentially double the original (and nearly triple if the Friday number increases and it hits $35 million OW). A welcome surprise by any stretch.

 

February could have 3 $100 million+ DOM performers (with Fist Fight and Get Out possibly doing some solid numbers of their own) 

[Jay Beezy]

After this weekend, Wick should certainly get a theater expansion. That, plus a four day weekend next weekend, should put some limits on its decrease next weekend.

[Sam]

My 5:00pm showing of Fifty Shades was full. 

 

Those 30-35M predictions just last week are further examples of tracking, more often than not, underestimate female-targeted movies. 

 

I thought it's trashy and hilarious, but it also having more focus on romanticism and eroticism compare to the first one, so I think it'll play very well over Valentine. 

[babz06]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Buzz is nonexistent for Fist Fight. I have no idea why the hell people are predicting high teens+ for it.

This is a walk up business film, as are most comedies. They don't require a lot of buzz. Ice Cube has a built in audience that should get it to high teens, low 20s opening  for the four day weekend and atleast 45-50m domestic at the lowest. 

[franfar]

29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

And CHiPs definitely looks like a flop waiting to happen. Who the hell thought it was a good idea for Dax Shepard to be the lead in...well, anything?

And it's based off a cop show from the 80s. Who wants to see that?

 

43 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

Fist Fight is also going to have the definition of zero competition.  It is the first live action comedy since Why Him (8 weeks ago) and there isn't another comedy until CHiPs (5 weeks from now). 

 

13 weeks and it will be the only new comedy.  That alone should get it business even if it sucks. 

Yeah, when has there ever been a comedy with "hype", outside of sequels from popular flicks?

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Sam said:

Those 30-35M predictions just last week are further examples of tracking, more often than not, underestimate female-targeted movies. 

It's looking at similar audience retention that Sex and the City 2 saw. The law of diminishing returns indicates it's nothing but downhill for the final movie but the budget is low enough that Universal should be reasonably happy.

[YM!]

It's about 9:30 here, any RTH updates?

[RthDeadWov]

4 hours ago, Fifty Shades Rth said:

Aus  Wed 1.410, Thu 1.380 ,  WE (inclu Wed night  Girls night out previews)  should put WE at around  70% of FSOG  WE

 

earlier  had Domestic Fri looking  FSD  19-21m, Lego 15-17, JW2 10-11 

 

 

FSD 21-22, LBM 15, JW2 11

[filmlover]

Just now, Fifty Shades Rth said:

 

FSD 21-22, LBM 15, JW2 11

Definitely a weekend at the box office that was very much needed.

[franfar]

2 minutes ago, Fifty Shades Rth said:

 

FSD 21-22, LBM 15, JW2 11

I wonder if Blanks will freak out at the LB #s

[DAR]

Page 17

[YM!]

So under $60M for Lego Batman?

[Sam]

3 minutes ago, Fifty Shades Rth said:

 

FSD 21-22, LBM 15, JW2 11

 

Damn. Go FSD and John Wick! 

 

John Wick is up next. Tomorrow will be another good day at theater. 

 

 

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

So under $60M for Lego Batman?

 

 

most likely. Something like a 58m opening

[YM!]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

most likely. Something like a 58m opening

Will it at least do $200M?

[franfar]

5 minutes ago, YourMother said:

So under $60M for Lego Batman?

Suppose it does that. Did we have too high of expectations or is the film underperforming? It is a spinoff like Panda mentioned. (I think I made that point in my club....)

 

 

[franfar]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Will it at least do $200M?

3.4x legs like Cannastop and Wrath suggested would give it 197.2m DOM, with 58m OW. Just short.

 

Unless they try to Spectre/Passengers the film to 200m

Edited February 11, 2017 by franfar

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

Will it at least do $200M?

That's questionable right now.

[MikeQ]

A $15 million Friday for Lego Batman is a slight disappointment for me. That's only a $12.8 million true Friday, and around $54-55 million for the weekend. Tracking had it opening to $60-65 million, and I expected $65+ million given strong reviews and great marketing. Still strong, of course, but I did expect more. I will hope for very good legs.

 

Peace,

Mike

[franfar]

The movie received outstanding reviews, so a very leggy performance wouldn't surprise me.