The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

But seriously enough talk about PikaPika, presales aren’t until tomorrow anyway and we are sort of taking up space.

I disagree very very slightly. The joking about/jokes surrouinding Pikachu is hella tired, there I agree.

 

But I do kinda think some sort of expectation setting talk might be interesting.  Like, what movies should we be expecting to compare Pika Pika (writing DP makes me think of Deadpool, sorry ) to when it comes to initial pre-sales?

 

It should be a fairly small number, being a PG family film.  On the other hand, there's the so-called YouTube "Law".

 

 

I really do have no idea what to expect tomorrow.  Nothing big, naturally.  And I personally don't have all that much when it comes to detailed tracking, so I'll be looking at Fandango data here to get a sense of where it's at.

 

Any of the experts here want to chime in as to what should be a good comp when it comes to judging Pikachu?

 

 

 

Edited April 9, 2019 by Porthos

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I disagree very very slightly. The joking about/jokes surrouinding Pikachu is hella tired, there I agree.

 

But I do kinda think some sort of expectation setting talk might be interesting.  Like, what movies should we be expecting to compare Pika Pika (writing DP makes me think of Deadpool, sorry ) to when it comes to initial pre-sales?

 

It should be a fairly small number, being a PG family film.  On the other hand, there's the so-called YouTube "Law".

 

 

I really do have no idea what to expect tomorrow.  Nothing big, naturally.  And I personally don't have all that much when it comes to detailed tracking, so I'll be looking at Fandango data here to get a sense of where it's at.

 

Any of the experts here want to chime in as to what should be a good comp when it comes to judging Pikachu?

 

 

 

Agreed. It’s hard to find a good comparison.

 

JWFK and I2 could be good choices. Some Disney Live Action remakes as well. Lower tier CBMs as well like Ant Man/Shazam!/Venom too might be nice. Ralph 2 and Dragon 3 has strong presales.

Edited April 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[filmlover]

Little is getting some very good bookings around here. My theater has it on 2 screens all day and 4 by the end of the night. Could see it pulling at least low-$20M since there hasn't been a major comedy in a while.

[YM!]

I can see $30M for Little tbh...

[filmlover]

Also it's gonna be annoying when tracking next week for Detective Pikachu shows a $60-70M opening (which would still be a great number for it) and a lot of people start calling it "Detective Flopachu," most likely without irony. 

Edited April 9, 2019 by filmlover

[Brainbug]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I disagree very very slightly. The joking about/jokes surrouinding Pikachu is hella tired, there I agree.

 

But I do kinda think some sort of expectation setting talk might be interesting.  Like, what movies should we be expecting to compare Pika Pika (writing DP makes me think of Deadpool, sorry ) to when it comes to initial pre-sales?

 

It should be a fairly small number, being a PG family film.  On the other hand, there's the so-called YouTube "Law".

 

 

I really do have no idea what to expect tomorrow.  Nothing big, naturally.  And I personally don't have all that much when it comes to detailed tracking, so I'll be looking at Fandango data here to get a sense of where it's at.

 

Any of the experts here want to chime in as to what should be a good comp when it comes to judging Pikachu?

 

 

 

 

I do find it very hard to settle for a good comp for Pikachu. On the one hand, yeah, its a PG Family film and these films tend to have smaller presales and heavy walk-ups, so Fallen Kingdom would maybe be a good comp. But behind DP stands the biggest media franchise of all time and one of the largest and dedicated fanbases in the world, so presales could be heavily inflated by those people. Honestly, its a very big wildcard for me.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Agreed. It’s hard to find a good comparison.

 

JWFK and I2 could be good choices. Some Disney Live Action remakes as well. Lower tier CBMs as well like Ant Man/Shazam!/Venom too might be nice.

I was thinking about Incredibles 2 as a solid comp.  Unfortunately, I was in a post-Solo bombing funk at the time and didn't give any thought to tracking it.  Might also be problems surrounding that comp (sequel to a beloved film, perhaps skewing a bit older on demos, etc).  But, then, no comp is perfect.  

 

Strangely enough, I like the Venom comp as well, despite the radically different type of movie it was.  Mostly because of the "YouTube Law" talk surrounding Venom.  Otherwise it wouldn't be a comp I would normally use.

 

When it comes to Disney remakes... BatB, maybe?  But that might be a bit too successful to be used as a comp, so I dunno. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also it's gonna be annoying when tracking next week for Detective Pikachu shows a $60-70M opening (which would still be a great number for it) and a lot of people start calling it "Detective Flopachu," most likely without irony. 

Agreed.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I was thinking about Incredibles 2 as a solid comp.  Unfortunately, I was in a post-Solo bombing funk at the time and didn't give any thought to tracking it.  Might also be problems surrounding that comp (sequel to a beloved film, perhaps skewing a bit older on demos, etc).  But, then, no comp is perfect.  

 

Strangely enough, I like the Venom comp as well, despite the radically different type of movie it was.  Mostly because of the "YouTube Law" talk surrounding Venom.  Otherwise it wouldn't be a comp I would normally use.

 

When it comes to Disney remakes... BatB, maybe?  But that might be a bit too successful to be used as a comp, so I dunno. 

Fantastic Beasts might be a good one as well.

[Cooper Legion]

Yeah, I would talk more about good presales comps for Pika if I had any clue what a good presale comp for Pika might be 😛     

 

Just going to have to live with a wide range until it opens, the horror.  

 

Edit: Oh, I actually kind of like Venom, despite the genre difference.

Edited April 9, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also it's gonna be annoying when tracking next week for Detective Pikachu shows a $60-70M opening (which would still be a great number for it) and a lot of people start calling it "Detective Flopachu," most likely without irony. 

 

Absolutely agree.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Fantastic Beasts might be a good one as well.

I have detailed FB2 tracking, thankfully.  But then Sacto over-performed in regards to FB2, so... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

2 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Edit: Oh, I actually kind of like Venom, despite the genre difference.

I do have the last two days of Venom tracking locally, so there's that.

 

When it comes to the data I personally have, I'll probably settle on JW2 and FB2 as the best comps I have. While also noting that Sacto hella likes wizards, for some reason.

[YM!]

Dumbo could be a good one although I expect sales to be much higher.

[MrGamer]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Also it's gonna be annoying when tracking next week for Detective Pikachu shows a $60-70M opening (which would still be a great number for it) and a lot of people start calling it "Detective Flopachu," most likely without irony. 

“The PCU is dead before it even began.”

[filmlover]

Just now, MrGamer said:

“The PCU is dead before it even began.”

[Porthos]

Just want to give everyone on the last couple of pages some kudos over the discussion about what we think Pikachu might be worth comparing to sight unseen. 

 

It's this sort of talk that makes this thread one of the best on the forums, IMO. 👍

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just looked at my theater. One listed show time for Pika Pika on May 9th @ 4pm. 

[YM!]

None yet from my main but my AMC has the traditional three showings which was about the same for most family films.

 

Again WB stop with the 4:00 pm showings, it is a bad omen for your family movies and useless as a decent amount of kids don’t usually get out of school until after 3:30-4 pm.

Edited April 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

All the AMC's by me have their showtimes up. Yeah I don't really get starting previews at 4pm.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

All the AMC's by me have their showtimes up. Yeah I don't really get starting previews at 4pm.

If it were 5 or 6, I’d understand but WB is screwing themselves over when they do that. Then again WB sucks at marketing and arguably management for family films.

Edited April 9, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord