The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Mulder]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

Shouldn't we wait till next weekend to determine that? I think it will be a close battle.

Endgame would have to have harsher drops then TFA, JW, and Avengers for that.

[Cappoedameron]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Endgame would have to have harsher drops then TFA, JW, and Avengers for that.

Which it very well could have, we have no idea of knowing how big of a drop off it's 2nd weekend will have. 

[Mulder]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

Which it very well could have, we have no idea of knowing how big of a drop off it's 2nd weekend will have. 

Looking at prior incredibly well received massive OW record breakers, I see literally no way Endgame goes below 90 million in it's third weekend.

[Cappoedameron]

4 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Looking at prior incredibly well received massive OW record breakers, I see literally no way Endgame goes below 90 million in it's third weekend.

For all you know it's 2nd weekend drop will be in the -60's or will be between 50-55%. There's no way of knowing at all.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[Mulder]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

For all you know it's 2nd weekend drop will be in the -60's. There's no way of knowing at all.

My guy with an A+ Cinemascore and 2nd weekend showings already filled up that is literally impossible. Stop thinking like a fanboy and look at the numbers and history.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

There's no way of knowing at all.

Sure there is.  By taking a look at current pre-sales for 2nd weekend FSS showings.

 

It doesn't tell a complete picture, but it can certainly inform speculation.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Porthos

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

My guy with an A+ Cinemascore and 2nd weekend showings already filled up that is literally impossible. Stop thinking like a fanboy and look at the numbers and history.

I'm looking at the history of frontloaded finale films(which endgame is marketed as) and notice they have a very significant decrease in Week 2 because of the mass amount of people that go to see it on OW to avoid spoilers. I also take into account traditional Marvel drops as well, which is 50-55%.

 

I assure you I am looking at numbers.

[Mulder]

1 minute ago, Cappoedameron said:

I'm looking at the history of frontloaded finale films(which endgame is marketed as) and notice they have a very significant decrease in Week 2 because of the mass amount of people that go to see it on OW to avoid spoilers. I also take into account traditional Marvel drops as well, which is 50-55%.

 

I assure you I am looking at numbers.

The weekend multiplier Endgame is showing is not showing a DH P2-esque frontloaded fan opening.

[Eric Furiosa]

I've already said this a bunch of times this week, but I'm gonna say it again: I'd argue movies currently in theaters get hurt by breakout movies more than upcoming movies. And the fact that people are going to the theater and seeing trailers and posters and whatnot for new movies helps stuff like Pikachu/Wick/Aladdin/Godzilla.

[dakus]

6 minutes ago, Mulder said:

The weekend multiplier Endgame is showing is not showing a DH P2-esque frontloaded fan opening.

Playing devils advocate, there straight up isn’t enough supply to allow for a DHP2 level of weekend frontloadedness. People are just trying to get whatever seats that are available at this point.

[Mulder]

11 minutes ago, dakus said:

Playing devils advocate, there straight up isn’t enough supply to allow for a DHP2 level of weekend frontloadedness. People are just trying to get whatever seats that are available at this point.

Yeah but the thing is if there was only a massive fan rush, you wouldn't have this issue.

[Cappoedameron]

21 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I've already said this a bunch of times this week, but I'm gonna say it again: I'd argue movies currently in theaters get hurt by breakout movies more than upcoming movies. And the fact that people are going to the theater and seeing trailers and posters and whatnot for new movies helps stuff like Pikachu/Wick/Aladdin/Godzilla.

And Pikachu's trailer according to tons of twittter reports received the most reaction out of any trailer showed with Endgame.

[dakus]

9 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Yeah but the thing is if there was only a massive fan rush, you wouldn't have this issue.

I mean, by definition if the fan rush is massive enough you absolutely would have this issue. People who would want to watch it first thing Thursday/Friday (who weren’t smart enough to buy tickets early) would possibly be forced into watching it later in the weekend due to sheer lack of seats.

 

Not saying that’s necessarily the case here, just pointing out that when the OW gets large enough it can still theoretically be frontloaded while having a good weekend multiplier.

Edited April 27, 2019 by dakus

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, dakus said:

I mean, by definition if the fan rush is massive enough you absolutely would have this issue. People who would want to watch it first thing Thursday/Friday (who weren’t smart enough to buy tickets early) would possibly be forced into watching it later in the weekend.

 

Not saying that’s necessarily the case here, just pointing out that when the OW gets large enough it can still theoretically be frontloaded while having a good weekend multiplier.

I feel Saturday and Sunday wouldn't be as strong as they're looking if that was the only thing happening here.

[YM!]

32 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I'm looking at the history of frontloaded finale films(which endgame is marketed as) and notice they have a very significant decrease in Week 2 because of the mass amount of people that go to see it on OW to avoid spoilers. I also take into account traditional Marvel drops as well, which is 50-55%.

 

I assure you I am looking at numbers.

IW was also marketed as a finale film. This is the film ever that will not only Gross $300M OW but the first to gross $350M OW. And judging by what we are getting from CJ so far, the Saturday is looking at $110M-$120M and it’s not showing the same drops as HP8 did on OW.

[XXR vs XXR]

Going to track my theaters 2nd Friday like it's a previews Thursday. Using CM and IW as a barometer, as Endgame is just too damn big. I will only do todays numbers (mainly just to set the base) and a final track on May 2nd @ 830pm. 

 

 

Avengers: Endgame -- 2nd Friday -- Current Status as of Saturday, April 27 @ 5pm CST

 

Dolby Prime

10:00am -- 4/205

2:00pm -- 3/205
6:00pm -- 66/205
10:15pm -- 17/205

 

IMAX 3D

3:30pm -- 4/151

 

IMAX 2D

11:30am -- 2/151

7:30pm -- 45/151
11:30pm -- 2/151

 

Real 3D
11:00am -- 0/125
1:30pm -- 0/76
3:00pm -- 0/125
5:45pm -- 0/76
7:00pm -- 0/125
9:55pm -- 0/76
11:00pm -- 0/125

Digital
12:00pm -- 5/147
12:35pm -- 0/125
1:00pm -- 0/147
4:00pm -- 2/147
4:35pm -- 0/125
5:00pm -- 13/147
8:15pm -- 19/147
8:45pm -- 20/125
9:15pm -- 0/147
12:15am -- 2/147

 

TOTALS: 25 show times, 204 tickets sold out of 3556 available (5.74%)

 

Captain Marvel -- $20.7m domestic previews total, 30 show times, 1140 tickets sold out of 2734 available (41.7%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, March 6 @ 6:30pm CST
Infinity War -- $39m domestic previews total, 37 show times, 2449 tickets sold out of 3312 available (73.95%) -- final tracking on Wednesday, April 25 @ 8:30pm CST

[Legion Again]

17 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

No analysis today, quite beat.  

 

17:00 Pacific 4/26/19 (End of opening Fri)  

1	92.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	1.8%	Captain Marvel
3	1.1%	The Curse of La Llorona
4	1%	Breakthrough
5	0.9%	Shazam!

17:00 Pacific 4/27/19 (End of opening Sat)  

1	90.7%	Avengers: Endgame
2	2.1%	Captain Marvel
3	1.5%	The Curse of La Llorona
4	1.5%	Breakthrough
5	1.2%	Shazam!

CM is cooling a tad on MT, though being #1 of holdovers in week 8 is pretty wild still. Not sure it will be above Llorona in dailies. Endgame still repping nonsense numbers, of course.

[Cappoedameron]

8 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

IW was also marketed as a finale film. This is the film ever that will not only Gross $300M OW but the first to gross $350M OW. And judging by what we are getting from CJ so far, the Saturday is looking at $110M-$120M and it’s not showing the same drops as HP8 did on OW.

Infinity War was never marketed as a finale film because everyone and their mother knew Infinity War was split up into 2 parts. Since around 2015 when it was confirmed that was what they were doing. Infinity War Part 2 became Endgame and it 100% is a finale film. Just by looking at the credits you know this is a curtain call.

[HouseOfTheSun]

Jesus Christ this dude is really trying to go to every big thread and try and sift out and argument against how dominant endgame is. 

 

 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Infinity War was never marketed as a finale film 

It most certainly was (if by implication).  Was actually a debate 'round these parts about how much the GA might feel mislead about said advertising.

 

Turns out, the answer was: Not in the slightest.  Either by drops last year or reception of EG this year.

 

====

 

Remember, the GA isn't as tuned in as more passionate CBM fans.  Do not mistake "coverage from Comic-Con" or "discussion on movie blogs" as the same thing as "General knowledge from the general public".

Edited April 28, 2019 by Porthos