The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

21 minutes ago, Mulder said:

@PorthosI know you get asked a lot but what do you think of the data for DP and Aladdin rn you've got?

I think Aladdin is preforming pretty well locally.  Maybe too well as I am seeing scattered reports of it bombing in other areas.  

 

It is benefitting from the occasional mini-group sale though.  Consider it spikes at the occasional theater, if you will.  But the data is the data, and it looks healthy.  Decent enough spread between the A list and B list theaters as well.

 

Stronger than Pikachu, that's for sure.

 

---

 

As for Pika Pika, man I dunno.  That FB2 comp is nearly garbage today as I am very sure tickets were selling for the Tuesday Limited Engagement in decent chunks at this point in time throwing the FB2 comp out of whack.

 

Kinda sorta almost impressed that it's holding at 40% or so of JW2.  The last five comparable days, JW2 sold 480 tickets.  Pika Pika sold 368 tickets, adjusted for tracking. That's 76.67% of JW2 which isn't too bad.  Keeping that up over the last six days of pre-sales is the Best Case Scenario for it, really.

 

But it also has a LOT more seats available, so... 

 

It has a pulse is all I can say, honestly.  Couldn't tell you a preview number yet though.

 

One thing to remember though, Pikachu isn't gonna get many PLF dollars.  It's getting some PLF money locally where it's on a 'Giant Screen' at Cinema West.  And I understand it's playing at a few Dolby Cinemas nationwide.  Overall though, the lack of PLF is gonna hurt it.

 

Another thing that will hurt it is the 4pm sales being at matinee pricing, where applicable.

 

So whatever my ratio for JW2 says, adjust it downward because of those two factors.  Ironically, the FB2 comp might end up working since it over-performed locally that might in turn compensate for the lack of PLF and matinee pricing at some showings.

 

===

 

tl;dr:

Aladdin doing well, perhaps too well locally.

Pika Pika has a pulse, but long way to go.  Adjust downward also due to lack of PLF + matinee showings.

Edited May 4, 2019 by Porthos

[Nova]

John Wick is doing $60M. Highly doubt End Game is first that weekend (regardless of what happens next weekend). 

[Mulder]

Just now, Nova said:

John Wick is doing $60M. Highly doubt End Game is first that weekend (regardless of what happens next weekend). 

Not with these Friday numbers @Endgame being first after next weekend.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Not with these Friday numbers @Endgame being first after next weekend.

I have no idea how End Game is gonna hold throughout the weekend. I don’t know how accurate that Friday number is either. I also have no idea how Pikachu is gonna do next weekend. I’m still not writing that movie off btw as I still think $70M is possible based on data I’m collecting (we shall see) BUT no way is it beating John Wick the weekend it comes out. It’s pretty clear that John Wick isn’t overperforming at my theater based on how it’s doing at other theaters. And as I said when I first started looking at data for it, I wouldn’t be shocked at a $60M opener. 

 

*Also I got excited Pulse came back up only to realize the data is useless. Ugh  

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

 I’m still not writing that movie off btw as I still think $70M is possible based on data I’m collecting

Gonna use this a jumping on point, coz I did want to talk about this now that Thr is getting closer and closer.

 

What should the target for the preview number for Pika Pika be, anyway?

 

I know that depends an awful lot on what the internal multi might be (and I know we had a huge discussion about internal multis that went almost precisely nowhere - so let's not start that up again).  But thinking about it, I think using anything greater than a 12x as an expectation for what a good target for previews might be probably isn't going to cut it.  "Be glad if it does more, but don't expect it" and all that.

 

With that mind, and if Pika is shooting for low 70s in your mind, would you say the target should be around 6m for a Thr number? Keeping in mind it might only do 60m off a 10x but as much as the mid 90s if it really in fact does have a lot of weekend walkup business?

 

That sound about right to you, @Nova as a target?  Or were you thinking something closer to 7m with an expected 10x multi?

 

Kinda like to get other thoughts here as well as to what would be a good Thr number for Pikachu to aim for, given all the uncertainty around it.

[Mulder]

Just now, Porthos said:

Gonna use this a jumping on point, coz I did want to talk about this now that Thr is getting closer and closer.

 

What should the target for the preview number for Pika Pika be, anyway?

 

I know that depends an awful lot on what the internal multi might be (and I know we had a huge discussion about internal multis that went almost precisely nowhere - so let's not start that up again).  But thinking about it, I think using anything greater than a 12x as an expectation for what a good target for previews might be probably isn't going to cut it.  "Be glad if it does more, but don't expect it" and all that.

 

With that mind, and if Pika is shooting for low 70s in your mind, would you say the target should be around 6m for a Thr number? Keeping in mind it might only do 60m off a 10x but as much as the mid 90s if it really in fact does have a lot of weekend walkup business?

 

That sound about right to you, @Nova as a target?  Or were you thinking something closer to 7m with an expected 10x multi?

 

Kinda like to get other thoughts here as well as to what would be a good Thr number for Pikachu to aim for, given all the uncertainty around it.

Imo PikaPika could have a super low Thursday number and still do insane over the weekend. Kids are definitely the main target for this.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mulder said:

Imo PikaPika could have a super low Thursday number and still do insane over the weekend. Kids are definitely the main target for this.

'Could', yes.  But there's been some rather good points why it might not (not to invite the actual argument starting back up again, naturally).  Hence my fishing for what folks think about a possible target for it as we get closer.

 

Just what would be a 'good' number, in other words.

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Gonna use this a jumping on point, coz I did want to talk about this now that Thr is getting closer and closer.

 

What should the target for the preview number for Pika Pika be, anyway?

 

I know that depends an awful lot on what the internal multi might be (and I know we had a huge discussion about internal multis that went almost precisely nowhere - so let's not start that up again).  But thinking about it, I think using anything greater than a 12x as an expectation for what a good target for previews might be probably isn't going to cut it.  "Be glad if it does more, but don't expect it" and all that.

 

With that mind, and if Pika is shooting for low 70s in your mind, would you say the target should be around 6m for a Thr number? Keeping in mind it might only do 60m off a 10x but as much as the mid 90s if it really in fact does have a lot of weekend walkup business?

 

That sound about right to you, @Nova as a target?  Or were you thinking something closer to 7m with an expected 10x multi?

 

Kinda like to get other thoughts here as well as to what would be a good Thr number for Pikachu to aim for, given all the uncertainty around it.

I mean based on the data I’m getting for Pikachu (again comps with Fallen Kingdom, Shazam! and Dumbo, which may very well end up being useless so please do take this with a grain of salt) at my theater, id expect around $6.5-7M for the preview number and I was gonna keep it at a 10x multiplier personally. If it goes up from there, that’s fantastic but I’m not gonna predict a higher multi until I see what the Friday number is. So I’m personally using a 10x multi off the preview number to get that $70M. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nova

[Nova]

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean based on the data I’m getting for Pikachu (again comps with Fallen Kingdom, Shazam! and Dumbo, which may very well end up being useless so please do take this with a grain of salt) at my theater, id expect around $6.5-7M for the preview number and I was gonna keep it at a 10x multiplier personally. If it goes up from there, that’s fantastic but I’m not gonna predict a higher multi until I see what the Friday number is. So I’m personally using a 10x multi off the preview number to get that $70M. 

Also I threw in Dumbo but really it’s a useless comp at my theater. It’s currently running 325% of Dumbo with two-three days left until Monday which yea isn’t happening. Thinking Dumbo either underperformed at my theater or Pika is way overperforming relative to it at mine. But it’s running at a little over half of where Fallen Kingdom is and outpacing Shazam! by a healthy margin. So to balance those two out I’m thinking $6.5-7M for previews and with a 10x thinking $65-70M 

 

*Although 325* of Dumbo would put it at around $8M+ for previews but if I take into account what I mentioned above, I guess I could still use Dumbo as a comp. So bringing it down a bit to $7Mish range when compared. 

 

But im just throwing darts at a wall at this point. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nova

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, Nova said:

I mean based on the data I’m getting for Pikachu (again comps with Fallen Kingdom, Shazam! and Dumbo, which may very well end up being useless so please do take this with a grain of salt) at my theater, id expect around $6.5-7M for the preview number and I was gonna keep it at a 10x multiplier personally. If it goes up from there, that’s fantastic but I’m not gonna predict a higher multi until I see what the Friday number is. So I’m personally using a 10x multi off the preview number to get that $70M. 

If I use my JW2 comp locally at the six day out marker, I get just under 6.5m as well (6.457m).  PLF and matinee is a concern, as I said, but it is interesting that comp is in the same ballpark. 👍

 

Of course, JW2 exploded here locally in its last few days, and it remains to be seen if Pika Pika will as well.  Still, it doesn't need to match JW2 over its last six days, just keep within a percentage of it.

 

The other concern I have outside of PLF and matinee pricing is showtimes.  I really don't know how many showtimes Pika Pika will get at the final slate for Thr, but I'm not expecting that huge of an increase if only because of EG.

 

It's the one last wil...

 

... random variation* that I can't quite account for yet when it comes to sussing this all out.

 

* changed it up just for you, @Sam  

[Nova]

45 minutes ago, Porthos said:

If I use my JW2 comp locally at the six day out marker, I get just under 6.5m as well (6.457m).  PLF and matinee is a concern, as I said, but it is interesting that comp is in the same ballpark. 👍

 

Of course, JW2 exploded here locally in its last few days, and it remains to be seen if Pika Pika will as well.  Still, it doesn't need to match JW2 over its last six days, just keep within a percentage of it.

 

The other concern I have outside of PLF and matinee pricing is showtimes.  I really don't know how many showtimes Pika Pika will get at the final slate for Thr, but I'm not expecting that huge of an increase if only because of EG.

 

It's the one last wil...

 

... random variation* that I can't quite account for yet when it comes to sussing this all out.

 

* changed it up just for you, @Sam  

Fallen Kingdom at my theater only got to 5 screens for Thursday night. Pikachu is currently at 3 so I’d imagine it would get a 4th. Which is double what a typical opener gets at my theater. 

 

But yea I’m thinking a $6.5-7M preview number as of right now. Kinda going with that number cause it’s in the ballpark of what you’re getting as well. Will have to see how the rest of the week plays out BUT if I’m giving a number now, that’s the one I’m going with. 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Nova

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Nova said:

John Wick is doing $60M. Highly doubt End Game is first that weekend (regardless of what happens next weekend). 

Yeah no way on 60 million 4th weekend. That happens and 1 billion here we come.

[cdsacken]

2 hours ago, Mulder said:

Not with these Friday numbers @Endgame being first after next weekend.

Still a very strong chance End Game beats Pikachu. 65 OW is on the higher side of predictions. Close to worst case for End Game imo is 70+ next weekend.

Edited May 4, 2019 by cdsacken

[Minnale101]

Please return Sunday Pluse at the very least 

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

Please return Sunday Pluse at the very least 

It’s up! 

[Minnale101]

Just now, Nova said:

It’s up! 

Thanks!! Can finally track it again 

 

I thought cus it had a astreik on table that it don’t count fully 

[Nova]

1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

Thanks!! Can finally track it again 

 

I thought cus it had a astreik on table that it don’t count fully 

Not sure what you mean exactly but be warned it’s up and running now but data from several hours yesterday is missing. It stopped updating and then started updating again 7 hours later but the data in those 7 hours is gone. 

[Minnale101]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Not sure what you mean exactly but be warned it’s up and running now but data from several hours yesterday is missing. It stopped updating and then started updating again 7 hours later but the data in those 7 hours is gone. 

Yeah not even gonna both until Sunday 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Took a cursory glance at my theater. Normalizing my theater across the country, I fully expect Endgame to come in close to $65m. Business is much stronger today. Same number of show times as yesterday. Evenings are already on par with sales from 2pm yesterday but matinees are significantly stronger. 

[cdsacken]

65 or anything close would be awesome and give a chance at 155 for #2 weekend