The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, BK007 said:

Toy Story rehashing itself again. No one asked for this.

Who wants to be the one to tell them?

Spoiler

"Not it", BTW.  I'm headed to bed now.

 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Porthos

[TMP]

28 minutes ago, BK007 said:

I mean, besides EG, DP and JW3, what else do we have in store?

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, TLK said:

I think a lot of things are in play here. A:EG is definitely having an affect. We see air getting sucked out of the room every time there is a mega blockbuster movie. Another issue is that there are just too many blockbuster movies being released nowadays. I think studios will soon realize that if you don't have a potential billion dollar grosser you have to keep the budget under $ 150 million. This would've helped movies like Dumbo, Dark Phoenix and Godzilla.

All of the movies you just mentioned had things going against them regardless of Avengers being around.

[Tinalera]

I can only speak from my encounters with friends. There was simply way too much for them as families budgetwise. They can budget our for 2-3 movies a year. Weve already had shazam dumbo aladdin. Still have pets2, lion king, toy story. Thats not counting family friendly films rest of the year (small kids so mcu films wait for streaming dvd).

 

But thats 6 films just half way through year. Budgeting 2 to 3 have to choose from. A couple of them are going to just get a nice home theatre and get disney plus when its out. Theyll save non disney family stuff for theatres. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by Tinalera
A word

[MovieMan89]

I will say it is concerning that it's possible every non-Disney blockbuster this summer could underperform (excluding FFH which doesn't count anyways). I am starting to wonder if IT, Joker, and Jumanji will be the only non-Disney 200m+ films of the year? If I'm every other studio exec, I'm scrambling for visionary and exciting new ideas in the industry right now. Your existing franchises aren't reliable enough to compete with Disney. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

39 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will say it is concerning that it's possible every non-Disney blockbuster this summer could underperform (excluding FFH which doesn't count anyways). I am starting to wonder if IT, Joker, and Jumanji will be the only non-Disney 200m+ films of the year? If I'm every other studio exec, I'm scrambling for visionary and exciting new ideas in the industry right now. Your existing franchises aren't reliable enough to compete with Disney. 

In fairness, it was always a sure thing that no studio was gonna be able to come close to competing with Disney for the 2019 once their schedule had been finalized. They're bringing out all the big guns this year.

[Eric the Minion]

Movie/Date

Monday

Men in Black	226
	11 days
Toy Story 4	980
	18 days
Spider-Man FFH	582
	29 days

 

Men in Black

First 6 Days

37% of Detective Pikachu (20.5M)

49% of Shazam (26.4M)

45% of Aquaman (30.9M)

 

Day 16-11

42% of Dragon 3 (23M)

57% of Dumbo (26.2M)

55% of Shazam (29.4M)

 

lol

 

Toy Story

First 7 Days

269% of Dumbo (123.8M)

233% of Pikachu (126.6M)

294% of Shazam (157.4M)

114% of Incredibles 2 (208.2M)

 

Day 24-18

208% of Shazam (111.4M) (day 24 is excluded)

82% of Captain Marvel (126.7M)

515% of Pikachu (280.1M)

223% of Incredibles 2 (408.4M)

 

Still doing great business. And of course, the people who look at data from the Fandango Daily chart say 150M+ is pretty dang close to a lock. And of course it's Disney, so by law it has to be a hit (Dumbo doesn't exist. It's a mirage).

[Joyous Legion]

35 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

(Dumbo doesn't exist. It's a mirage). 

Dumbo was the annual sacrifice, they just moved it up from MDW this year to get things over with upfront  

[TMP]

1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will say it is concerning that it's possible every non-Disney blockbuster this summer could underperform (excluding FFH which doesn't count anyways). I am starting to wonder if IT, Joker, and Jumanji will be the only non-Disney 200m+ films of the year? If I'm every other studio exec, I'm scrambling for visionary and exciting new ideas in the industry right now. Your existing franchises aren't reliable enough to compete with Disney. 

An adult drama could always hit $200m dom if it strikes the right chord. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, TMP said:

An adult drama could always hit $200m dom if it strikes the right chord. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

It's going to be Little Women (even if that's more of a family drama than an adult drama) over the holidays because it's @CoolEric258's Christmas wish (in all seriousness though, I do think that's doing $100M+ quite easily).

Edited June 4, 2019 by filmlover

[YM!]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

In fairness, it was always a sure thing that no studio was gonna be able to come close to competing with Disney for the 2019 once their schedule had been finalized. They're bringing out all the big guns this year.

Still it’s kind of a bad thing when one studio will likely have 8 out of 10 spots this year regardless of big guns made or not.

[YM!]

I’d say in terms of chances, IT 2 and Jumanji 2 should go over $200M DOM with ease, I have a bad feeling Joker will be another Pikachu, OUATIW screams breakout but even as counterprogramming, I’m nervous about the Lion King, Hobbs and Shaw can also breakout due to a weak August and lack of big action aside from FFH. Pets 2 has a chance but presales look terrible even as a family film.

[filmlover]

Just now, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Still it’s kind of a bad thing when one studio will likely have 8 out of 10 spots this year regardless of big guns made or not.

I mean, it was always expected. Confused about the frustration when this outcome was seen coming from miles away. Next year will be a more wealth spreading year.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I mean, it was always expected. Confused about the frustration when this outcome was seen coming from miles away. Next year will be a more wealth spreading year.

 

I mean yes we all expected Disney 2019 to be it’s biggest because of Disney+, and yes the sequel curse of Lego 2, Godzilla 2, and Hellboy as well as the fact not all superhero films are created equal, should have been expected but the others are flat out dying. Even ignoring the overprediction of Pikachu, sure things like Pets 2 may be the first film from Illumination to go sub $200M DOM since Hop, and US cratered legs wise due to audiences being mixed. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2manji barely misses $200M as well. The fact that one studio (I don’t care if this was even Paramount) might have all of the top 5, at potentially each over $500M+ DOM as well as 3 more over $300M+ DOM is very unsettling. 

[MovieMan89]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mean, it was always expected. Confused about the frustration when this outcome was seen coming from miles away. Next year will be a more wealth spreading year.

Eh, I kinda doubt that. Disney could easily be poised to take up to 7 spots of the top ten again next year (mulan, cruella, onward, dragon empire, jungle cruise, eternals, black widow). And apparently there is another untitled Pixar film on the schedule? I’d say it’s unlikely anything they have topples Wonder Woman for #1, but that’s about the biggest difference. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Eh, I kinda doubt that. Disney could easily be poised to take up to 7 spots of the top ten again next year (mulan, cruella, onward, dragon empire, jungle cruise, eternals, black widow). And apparently there is another untitled Pixar film on the schedule? I’d say it’s unlikely anything they have topples Wonder Woman for #1, but that’s about the biggest difference. 

I think Mulan and both MCU have a shot at beating Wonder Woman

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Eh, I kinda doubt that. Disney could easily be poised to take up to 7 spots of the top ten again next year (mulan, cruella, onward, dragon empire, jungle cruise, eternals, black widow). And apparently there is another untitled Pixar film on the schedule? I’d say it’s unlikely anything they have topples Wonder Woman for #1, but that’s about the biggest difference. 

Cruella would be lucky to get on the top ten but this is a good point. Especially considering potential breakouts like West Side Story and Free Guy. 

[filmlover]

18 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

I mean yes we all expected Disney 2019 to be it’s biggest because of Disney+, and yes the sequel curse of Lego 2, Godzilla 2, and Hellboy as well as the fact not all superhero films are created equal, should have been expected but the others are flat out dying. Even ignoring the overprediction of Pikachu, sure things like Pets 2 may be the first film from Illumination to go sub $200M DOM since Hop, and US cratered legs wise due to audiences being mixed. I wouldn’t be surprised if 2manji barely misses $200M as well. The fact that one studio (I don’t care if this was even Paramount) might have all of the top 5, at potentially each over $500M+ DOM as well as 3 more over $300M+ DOM is very unsettling. 

Welcome to the state of box office in 2019. In other news, comedies are in danger of not even coming to theaters anymore.

 

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Eh, I kinda doubt that. Disney could easily be poised to take up to 7 spots of the top ten again next year (mulan, cruella, onward, dragon empire, jungle cruise, eternals, black widow). And apparently there is another untitled Pixar film on the schedule? I’d say it’s unlikely anything they have topples Wonder Woman for #1, but that’s about the biggest difference. 

Pretty sure that Pixar movie is something that never happened unless they make a surprise announcement at D23. It'll be removed from the schedule eventually.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

I think Mulan and both MCU have a shot at beating Wonder Woman

Onward and The Eternals (if casting is on point) in my honest opinion have the best chances to tackle WW1984.

 

Mulan seems more like Aladdin than TJB/Beast/Lion King. Especially considering the GA doesn’t like when Disney tries something new for the remakes. 

Edited June 4, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Welcome to the state of box office in 2019. In other news, comedies are in danger of not even coming to theaters anymore.

That’s the sad truth, but it doesn’t justify it. 

 

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Pretty sure that Pixar movie is something that never happened unless they make a surprise announcement at D23. It'll be removed from the schedule eventually.

I still think it’s happening especially as the Dragon Empire stuff is just rumors at this point.