The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Current Predictions for Various Opening Weekends, 2019 - As of June 7

 

 

Toy Story 4: $152 million 

Spider-Man FFH: $198 million (6 day)

 

The Lion King: $224 million 

Hobbs & Shaw: $91 million 

It - Chapter 2: $116 million 

Joker: $77 million 

 

Maleficent 2: $51 million 

 

Terminator - Dark Fate: $39 million 

Frozen 2: $167 million

 

Star Wars - TROS: $231 million

I'm thinking more like 200ish for TROS because TLJ had a big cliffhanger effect (TFA shot of Luke at the end) contributing to the big opening and the frontloaded (for December) run. Even though TROS is a finale I don't think it has that kind of "get to the cinema as soon as possible" hook, of course the flip side is that it would have better legs. I'm also not sure that Hobbs and Shaw will go that high (though the dead August may help it), I haven't really felt like there's as much hype as F8. Other than that I'm mostly in agreement with these (although I still think FFH has a big potential upside and, even though the presales have been below CM, it could catch fire once Sony actually starts marketing it more after MIB's release). 

[DAJK]

7 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I was worried I was the only one who thought Maleficent would do acceptable business. Glad to see I'm not alone.

I was back and forth on it. At first I said it would do 150M DOM, then the teaser came out (and I thought it was awful) and I started thinking it could be closer to Alice 2. Pets 2 dropping so hard from the first, which shares the comps with Maleficent of "being a big hit but people don't remember it all that much".

 

Still, 2019 is Disney's year, so who knows. 

[Eric the Minion]

5 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I was back and forth on it. At first I said it would do 150M DOM, then the teaser came out (and I thought it was awful) and I started thinking it could be closer to Alice 2. Pets 2 dropping so hard from the first, which shares the comps with Maleficent of "being a big hit but people don't remember it all that much".

 

Still, 2019 is Disney's year, so who knows. 

FWIW, when I saw Aladdin, the Maleficent teaser got a pretty decent reaction from people, especially a group of girls behind me. Anecdotal, and trailer reactions aren't the end all be all, but I think there's still a decent-sized audience for this that's still fond of the first movie, particularly people who aren't in the BOT demographic. Also helps it's coming out when there's really nothing out for women, and especially girls, until maybe Charlie's Angles (and of course for girls nothing until Frozen)

[YM!]

TBH been thinking MMOE would do $150M DOM for a while, as I think Abominable and Addams are going to eat into other and not do big.

[Biggestgeekever]

Trailer views are a pretty all-over-the-place way of measuring hype for a movie, but the official trailer for Maleficent 2 on the Disney channel has a terrible 5.3M views after 3 weeks. As far as tentpoles go, that's about the worst of anything this year outside of the now moved Artemis Fowl.

 

Given what we've seen from sequels nobody asked for this year, I'm not confident in an opening above $35M for it.

[Joyous Legion]

23 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

17 PT 6/6/19 (End of Thurs)  

1	20.6%	Aladdin
2	20.5%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	13.9%	Dark Phoenix
4	10.9%	Rocketman
5	9.1%    Godzilla: King of the Monsters

Slop2 missing by .1% I won’t bother with the usual “new #1” post, it will be a firm #1 in the first update tomorrow. Godzilla hanging on in 5th after Rocketman holds stunningly well today on MT.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

17 PT

 

SLOP2

T 6079

F 10207

S  6040

S 2925

 

XDP

T 17483

F 11000

S 8112

S 3502

 

17 PT 6/7/19 (End of Fri)  

1	31.1%	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2	16.6%   Aladdin
3	15.7%	Dark Phoenix
4	10.3%	Rocketman
5	7.7%    Godzilla: King of the Monsters   

XDP might make it to #2 tomorrow. Maybe never.   

 

Spoiler

17 PT

 

6883	2019-06-06	THU	The Secret Life of Pets 2
24038	2019-06-07	FRI	The Secret Life of Pets 2
8737	2019-06-08	SAT	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3902	2019-06-09	SUN	The Secret Life of Pets 2

20682	2019-06-06	THU	Dark Phoenix
21209	2019-06-07	FRI	Dark Phoenix
10282	2019-06-08	SAT	Dark Phoenix
4350	2019-06-09	SUN	Dark Phoenix

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Current Predictions for Various Opening Weekends, 2019 - As of June 7

 

 

Toy Story 4: $152 million 

Already tracking.

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Spider-Man FFH: $198 million (6 day)

Tracking midnights only

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

The Lion King: $224 million 

Planning on tracking.

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Hobbs & Shaw: $91 million 

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

It - Chapter 2: $116 million 

Planning on tracking.

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Joker: $77 million 

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Maleficent 2: $51 million 

Probably not.

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Terminator - Dark Fate: $39 million 

LOL

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Frozen 2: $167 million

Already planning on tracking

3 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Star Wars - TROS: $231 million

[XXR & Friends]

@Porthos If I put the amount of effort in that you do, I wouldn't track nearly as many films. Your service is unparalleled and we thank you. 

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

@Porthos If I put the amount of effort in that you do, I wouldn't track nearly as many films. Your service is unparalleled and we thank you. 

Just between you and me, I kinda got snookered on Pika Pika and KotM.   My informal line for serious tracking (as opposed to an occasional look like I just did for Dark Phoenix) is around 75m OW, more or less.  Both of those films had 80m from BOP at the start of pre-sales.

 

They.... didn't turn out that way.   

 

Still, I'm glad enough to have those tracking numbers, but I certainly ain't planning on tracking other projected 60m OW or less films.  Hence the "I GUESS" pic for the mid-70s and low-90s OW.

 

Edited June 8, 2019 by Porthos

[Cap]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

but I think there's still a decent-sized audience for this that's still fond of the first movie, particularly people who aren't in the BOT demographic. Also helps it's coming out when there's really nothing out for women, and especially girls, until maybe Charlie's Angles (and of course for girls nothing until Frozen)

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

FWIW, when I saw Aladdin, the Maleficent teaser got a pretty decent reaction from people, especially a group of girls behind me. Anecdotal, and trailer reactions aren't the end all be all, but I think there's still a decent-sized audience for this that's still fond of the first movie, particularly people who aren't in the BOT demographic. Also helps it's coming out when there's really nothing out for women, and especially girls, until maybe Charlie's Angles (and of course for girls nothing until Frozen)

 

5 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Oh, I think Maleficent can certainly break out; already said so in its thread.

 

What it has going for it is going "ALL IN" on the type of movie it wants to be.  It isn't hiding its... Hmm... How to put this?  Not "camp", per se.  More, "deliciously arch".  Yeah, I think that works.

 

And it's an "ALL IN" style that hasn't been played out to death like Burton films.  So if it's any good I think it could resonate enough to get a very good total in the end.

[Joyous Legion]

Maleficient will do a very respectable 200-299. It is ordained.      

 

On a slightly more substantive note, the first one had great legs and it isn’t exactly aimed for the average BOT user, demographically speaking. It could be yet another 2019 sequels with a huge drop, but I think only if it’s bad.

Edited June 8, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Cap]

I loved the first Maleficent. It was bursting with warm, feminine energy. I 100% agree with CoolEric that the rest of the year until Frozen is dead for Girls. TLK will be a big 4-quart hit, but it will be a full EIGHT MONTHS between Carol and Elsa with nothing else remotely coming close to delivering girly girl power.

 

And as Porthos said, it looks delicious.  Angelina Jolie and Michelle Pfeiffer Look like they’re relishing chewing the screen. Plus, the costumes! And fingers crossed someone will turn into a dragon. Give me. 

 

I think it would be an Aladdin surprise for BOT

[Eric the Minion]

30 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Now hold your horses sis. I didn't say this was gonna be a smash hit. But I can see this doing something like 48/140. Still a sizable drop, but not to the extreme of something like Alice or Pets. Especially if something breaks out, especially something for adult women.

Edited June 8, 2019 by CoolEric258

[Cap]

12 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Now hold your horses sis..

I was Amening more for the comment about the not-BOT demos and drought to Frozen II. 

 

That said,

 

C’mon! Let’s over predict it!  Couple months ago people saw a cute fluffy yellow rat and starting screamed a billion dollars. Angelina in that tear away costume and wings? At least deserve 250M hype 😜

Edited June 8, 2019 by captainwondyful
Let’s spell word right!

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I was Amening more for the comment about the not-BOT demos and drought to Frozen II. 

 

That said,

 

C’mon! Let’s over predict it!  Couple months ago people saw a cute fluffy yellow rat and starting screamed a billion dollars. Angelina in that tear away costume and wings? At least deserve 250M hype 😜

Sounds like someone wants to start their first club.

[Cap]

Just now, Porthos said:

Sounds like someone wants to start their first club.

🤔🤔🤔

 

I do own you one

 

😂

[UserHN]

38 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

I was Amening more for the comment about the not-BOT demos and drought to Frozen II. 

 

That said,

 

C’mon! Let’s over predict it!  Couple months ago people saw a cute fluffy yellow rat and starting screamed a billion dollars. Angelina in that tear away costume and wings? At least deserve 250M hype 😜

Pikachu is a rat? I didn't know that 😲

[Porthos]

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-13 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	90	10722	12313*	12.92%

* NOTE: One theater adjusted the seats available for purchase, resulting in an addition of six seats available.

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    48

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.8875x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 13 days before release.

1.9474x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 13 days before release.

2.3853x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 13 days before release.

PRE-SALES NOTE:  Pika Pika had 29 days of pre-sales, Aladdin had 24, and King of the Monsters had 20 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-13:

Pika         36 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/75 showings   |     8097/8648 seats left    |  6.37% sold]

Aladdin    70 tickets sold [0 sellouts/70 showings   |     9180/9997 seats left     |  8.17% sold]

KotM        61 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings   |  11465/12132 seats left    |  5.50% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

0.9993x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 13 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

PRE-SALES NOTE: Fallen Kingdom had 22 days of pre-sales while Toy Story 4 has 23 days of pre-sales.

 

T-13:

JW2               77 tickets sold [0 sellouts/97 showings |    8628/10113 seats left  | 14.68% sold]

TS4 (JW)        34 tickets sold [0 sellouts/90 showings |    9158/10642 seats left  | 13.94% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

[Porthos]

Stopping the 24 hour look at the Fandango tracker for a while.  If anyone else wants to pick back up, feel free.