The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

22 hours ago, FlashMaster659 said:

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 142/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 155/203

8:45 PM - 151/203

11:30 PM - 56/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 47/78

9:30 PM - 21/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 20/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 152/217

9:45 PM - 42/217

 

Total

 

786(+32)/1533 (51.3%)

 

Toy Story 4 - AMC Ontario Mills 30 (Thursday Night)

 

Fan Event

 

5:00 PM - 144/167

 

Dolby Cinema

 

6:00 PM - 162/203

8:45 PM - 155/203

11:30 PM - 60/203

 

3D Dine-In Full Service

 

6:30 PM - 49/78

9:30 PM - 22/78

 

RealD 3D

 

7:45 PM - 21/167

10:30 PM - 0/167

 

2D

 

7:00 PM - 152/217

9:45 PM - 44/217

 

Total

 

809(+23)/1533 (52.8%)

 

0.2203x as many seats sold as Avengers: Endgame 5 days before previews

[Sunny Max]

30 minutes ago, Menor said:

In 1 hour I'll post the daily breakdown

ok ... waiting ..   

[Menor the Destroyer]

Finally was able to do this. There won't be any pesky hour difference like yesterday so these numbers should be a more accurate reflection of the pace for TS4 vs I2

 

TS4 - Thurs: 7157 (+589) (59% of I2 at the same point), Fri: 7529 (+814) (61% of I2 at the same point), Sat: 5659 (+599) (64% of I2 at the same point) , Sun: 3113 (+275) (61% of I2 at the same point)

Total: 23458 (61% of I2 at the same point)

 

I2 - Thurs: 12129 (+966), Fri: 12418 (+1271), Sat: 8869 (+758), Sun: 5084 (+470)

Total: 38500

 

I2 way out in front, and the percentage lead is holding steady. Of course, this doesn't mean TS4 will do badly or anything, but 200+ hopes are growing ever fainter. Even for 150 I'd like to see it pick up the pace significantly.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Finally was able to do this. There won't be any pesky hour difference like yesterday so these numbers should be a more accurate reflection of the pace for TS4 vs I2

 

TS4 - Thurs: 7157 (+589) (59% of I2 at the same point), Fri: 7529 (+814) (61% of I2 at the same point), Sat: 5659 (+599) (64% of I2 at the same point) , Sun: 3113 (+275) (61% of I2 at the same point)

Total: 23458 (61% of I2 at the same point)

 

I2 - Thurs: 12129 (+966), Fri: 12418 (+1271), Sat: 8869 (+758), Sun: 5084 (+470)

Total: 38500

 

I2 way out in front, and the percentage lead is holding steady. Of course, this doesn't mean TS4 will do badly or anything, but 200+ hopes are growing ever fainter. Even for 150 I'd like to see it pick up the pace significantly.

Hmm interesting .. but little disappointment .. maybe i was expecting more ... 

 

200 is not even race .. lol .. we can talk about $150 to $170 M ...

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Menor said:

Finally was able to do this. There won't be any pesky hour difference like yesterday so these numbers should be a more accurate reflection of the pace for TS4 vs I2

 

TS4 - Thurs: 7157 (+589) (59% of I2 at the same point), Fri: 7529 (+814) (61% of I2 at the same point), Sat: 5659 (+599) (64% of I2 at the same point) , Sun: 3113 (+275) (61% of I2 at the same point)

Total: 23458 (61% of I2 at the same point)

 

I2 - Thurs: 12129 (+966), Fri: 12418 (+1271), Sat: 8869 (+758), Sun: 5084 (+470)

Total: 38500

 

I2 way out in front, and the percentage lead is holding steady. Of course, this doesn't mean TS4 will do badly or anything, but 200+ hopes are growing ever fainter. Even for 150 I'd like to see it pick up the pace significantly.

Opening around Dory seems like a safe bet, i'll be happy with this.

 

I think the ffs internal multi will be better than I2 though, even the presales seems more spread... so maybe even with $ 13M previews [which is probably the low end] it could surpass $ 150M OW

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Opening around Dory seems like a safe bet, i'll be happy with this.

 

I think the ffs internal multi will be better than I2 though, even the presales seems more spread... so maybe even with $ 13M previews [which is probably the low end] it could surpass $ 150M OW

I think it'll be better but from the presales it seems like not by a huge amount (percentages are fairly similar for all four days). I2 had 9.9x, maybe we can think about 10-11x for TS4. Ofc this could all change with the final week where a ton of sales are about to come in for both I2 and TS4.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Menor

[ThomasNicole]

7 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

Hmm interesting .. but little disappointment .. maybe i was expecting more ... 

 

200 is not even race .. lol .. we can talk about $150 to $170 M ...

Definitely 

 

TS4 will jump around 25 - 35% compared to TS3 [which is already huge]... that's excellent

 

It's sad though that media put the range so big that now something like $ 140M doesn't seem that impressive

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Definitely 

 

TS4 will jump around 25 - 35% compared to TS3 [which is already huge]... that's excellent

 

It's sad though that media put the range so big that now something like $ 140M doesn't seem that impressive

hmm yep ... but atleast TS4 should beat Dory OW numbers .. & i m sure movie will do it easily ..

 

$140 M to $150 M would be great numbers ..

[Sunny Max]

13 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Opening around Dory seems like a safe bet, i'll be happy with this.

 

I think the ffs internal multi will be better than I2 though, even the presales seems more spread... so maybe even with $ 13M previews [which is probably the low end] it could surpass $ 150M OW

that's minimum $13 M previews (though $14 to $15 possible)...   we can think about 10x / 11x multi for TS4 .. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Definitely 

 

TS4 will jump around 25 - 35% compared to TS3 [which is already huge]... that's excellent

 

It's sad though that media put the range so big that now something like $ 140M doesn't seem that impressive

Yeah I think Deadline jumped the gun with 200 million OW talk just because the first day beat I2 by so much (which I think we were all surprised by). But that didn't take into account that TS4's presales started much later than I2's did. Of course, I'll be happy to eat my words if we do see a crazy overperformance next weekend. But even Dory numbers will be great.

[TMP]

26 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

It's sad though that media put the range so big that now something like $ 140M doesn't seem that impressive

$140m OW is huge... a few months ago I was doubting $300m dom.

[john2000]

15 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

that's minimum $13 M previews (though $14 to $15 possible)...   we can think about 10x / 11x multi for TS4 .. 

as porthos said the previews will be 14-15 probably could go higher, and if you see the breakdown that i did yesterday 160-170 ow is very much possible with amulti of 11-12

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

as porthos said the previews will be 14-15 probably could go higher, and if you see the breakdown that i did yesterday 160-170 ow is very much possible with amulti of 11-12

in between $13 to $16 M

 

 $160 To $170 OW possible .. (that would be huge numbers)

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Sunny Max said:

in between $13 to $16 M

 

 $160 To $170 OW possible .. (that would be huge numbers)

the multi is the key here, with previews of 16 the movie could really challenge 200 ow , again i am not saying that it will happen

[Sunny Max]

7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the multi is the key here, with previews of 16 the movie could really challenge 200 ow , again i am not saying that it will happen

hmm .. but i think $200 is not possible ..  at maximum we could challenge I2 Ow numbers ($182)

 

I2 previews were insane ..  😮  ($18.5 M)

Edited June 15, 2019 by Sunny Max

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

hmm .. but i think $200 is not possible .. 

its the best case scenarion but not impossible, with around 16 previews it would require almost a 12 multi, incredibles 2 had almost 10 multi with a bigger previews,, again i am not saying that it will happen but depending from the previews there is a path

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, john2000 said:

its the best case scenarion but not impossible, with around 16 previews it would require almost a 12 multi, incredibles 2 had almost 10 multi with a bigger previews,, again i am not saying that it will happen but depending from the previews there is a path

could we break I2 previews record ..? ($18.5 M) .. insane numbers 

 

 

[john2000]

Just now, Sunny Max said:

could we break I2 previews record ..? ($18.5 M) .. insane numbers 

 

 

the point is that it can win the ow record, without beating i2 preview record, thats my point

[Porthos]

26 minutes ago, john2000 said:

as porthos said the previews will be 14-15 probably could go higher, and if you see the breakdown that i did yesterday 160-170 ow is very much possible with amulti of 11-12

I wouldn't rule out 13m on the lower end, especially if Sacto is over-performing.

 

To put it a different way, for TS4 to hit 15m to 16m it needs to keep keeping pace with Fallen Kingdom locally.  And Fallen Kingdom had an INSANE MTuWTh.

 

So if TS4 keeps mimicking JW:FK, then sure, 14m to 15m is on the table.  There's no guarantee it will keep mimicking JW:FK though.  Locally, that is.

Edited June 15, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

I wouldn't rule out 13m on the lower end, especially if Sacto is over-performing.

 

To put it a different way, for TS4 to hit 15m to 16m it needs to keep keeping pace with Fallen Kingdom locally.  And Fallen Kingdom had an INSANE MTuWTh.

 

So if TS4 keeps mimicking JW:FK, then sure, 14m to 15m is on the table.  There's no guarantee it will keep mimicking JW:FK thought.  Locally, that is.

of course, previews i would say right now have the range of 13-16

Edited June 15, 2019 by john2000