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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Menor said:

I think you may be misinterpreting his post a little bit. I agree with your main point in your previous post but what I got from his question specifically was more so asking if anyone else had any other estimates based on what their particular method of tracking was (whether it be an individual theater or Fandango or a whole city), which I'd say is a reasonable question as having multiple estimates will give a much better idea of where the movie appears to be headed.

:bravo: (quick writing didnt help me ,to make my point clear)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited) 
Updated by @akvalley: 2019-06-16 21:57:44 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-16 21:00:00	348	Toy Story 4
2019-06-16 21:00:00	329	Men in Black International
2019-06-16 21:00:00	247	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-16 21:00:00	208	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-16 21:00:00	193	Dark Phoenix

(not including all of the Toy Story variants below the #1 slot)

 

 

Edited by Porthos
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superduperm Box Office Gold

superduperm

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Porthos said: 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-06-16 21:57:44 Central (Lock time Fridays 11:00:00)
BUY TIME	TICKETS	MOVIE TITLE
--------------------------------------------------
2019-06-16 21:00:00	348	Toy Story 4
2019-06-16 21:00:00	329	Men in Black International
2019-06-16 21:00:00	247	Aladdin (2019)
2019-06-16 21:00:00	208	The Secret Life of Pets 2
2019-06-16 21:00:00	193	Dark Phoenix

(not including all of the Toy Story variants below the #1 slot)

 

 

That good or bad?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, superduperm said:

That good or bad?

Well it's not I2 pre-sale level good.  But it's still good, IMO.

 

(will beat JW:FK's pre-release Sunday, FWIW - which is probably nothing, but I've been amusing myself by doing a compare/contrast with TS4 and JW:FK if only for the lack of better options)

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Toy Story 4 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

92

9682

12465

22.33%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                  287

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.2318x as many tickets sold as Detective Pikachu 4 days before release.

1.9127x as many tickets sold as Aladdin 4 days before release.

2.1424x as many tickets sold as King of the Monsters 4 days before release.

 

T-4:

Pika        110 tickets sold [0 sellouts/62 showings   |     6217/7464 seats left    |  16.71% sold]

Aladdin  128 tickets sold [0 sellouts/81 showings   |    9934/11393 seats left    |  12.91% sold]

KotM      111 tickets sold [0 sellouts/98 showings   |  12441/13740 seats left    |   9.45% sold]

 

Adjusted Comps

1.0403x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom 4 days before release.      

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

T-4:

JW2            220 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |    8833/11263 seats left  | 21.58% sold]

TS4 (JW)     226 tickets sold [0 sellouts/92 showings   |    8266/10794 seats left  | 23.42% sold]

TS4 (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Far From Home Greater Sacramento Area MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS Seat Report: T-15 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

17

2409

2796

13.84%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                        7

 

Comp against Crimes of Grindelwand Tuesday Limited Engagement Sneaks:

 

0.7786x times as many tickets sold as FB2's sneaks 15 days before their showings.

 

T-15 days:

FB2 sneaks       13 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/6 showings   | 902/1399 seats left  |  35.53% sold]

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
23 hours ago, Porthos said: 

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-15 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.822%	12356	Men in Black International [combined]
2	13.983%	10271	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.643%	8552	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	09.197%	6755	Rocketman
5	07.062%	5187	Dark Phoenix
6	06.817%	5007	Shaft (2019)
7	05.996%	4404	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
8	05.856%	4301	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	04.841%	3556	Late Night (2019)
10	04.058%	2981	Avengers Endgame (2019)
11	03.555%	2611	Toy Story 4 [combined]
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-06-16 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	16.547%	12076	Men in Black International [combined]
2	12.836%	9368	The Secret Life of Pets 2
3	11.461%	8365	Aladdin (2019) [combined]
4	07.503%	5476	Rocketman
5	07.398%	5399	Toy Story 4 [combined]
6	07.276%	5310	Dark Phoenix
7	06.569%	4794	Shaft (2019)
8	06.567%	4793	John Wick Chapter 3 – Parabellum
9	06.519%	4758	Godzilla King of the Monsters (2019)
10	04.020%	2934	Avengers Endgame (2019)
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Eric the Ape Global Phenomenon

Eric the Ape

Posted
Posted

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Toy Story 4 1,724 2,015 3,101 3,145 2,762 2,471 5,413
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
               
Annabelle 3 66 55 81 53 56 60 65
  16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days 10 days
               
Spider-Man FFH 907 803 1,192 1,064 941 630 1,073
  22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days 16 days

 

Toy Story

Day 11-5

66% of Incredibles 2 (120M)

140% of Aladdin (128.6M 3-Day, 164.1M 4-Day)

282% of Shazam! (150.8M)

464% of Lego 2 (158.4M)

325% of Dragon 3 (178.9M)

428% of Dumbo (197M)

 

Day 18-5

64% of Incredibles 2 (117.8M)

135% of Aladdin (124M 3-Day, 158.3M 4-Day)

416% of Lego 2 (141.9M)

281% of Shazam! (150.4M)

334% of Dumbo (153.6M)

284% of Dragon 3 (156.1M)

 

Added in a new set to look at, and it's...interesting. I don't know what the "11-6" comps looked like (I don't really want to either by the by), but those comps do point to an above-average opener...kinda. I said this before, but Incredibles and Aladdin, arguably the strongest comps to use here, have the film opening, fine, albeit just slightly above TS3. But then everything else points to a breakout. I'll probably just wait until tomorrow to see where the dust settles.

 

Annabelle

Day 16-10

12% of Us (8.4M 3-Day, 10M first 5 days)

23% of The Nun (12.6M 3-Day, 14.6M first 5 days)

289% of The First Purge (50.2M 3-Day, 90.3M 5-Day)

 

Day 22-10

13% of Us (9.3M 3-Day, 11.1M first 5 days)

33% of The Nun (17.8M 3-Day, 20.6M first 5 days)

340% of The First Purge (59.1M 3-Day, 106.4M 5-Day)

 

Cumulative

260% of The First Purge (45.2M 3-Day, 81.4M 5-Day)

 

All the comps went down, which is still explainable for Us and Nun, since their "Day 10" was a Tuesday. Purge is also coming down to Earth, which is also good, because then we can actually extrapolate something.

 

Far From Home

Day 22-16

13% of Infinity War (32.4M 3-Day, 40.6M first 6 days)

46% of Captain Marvel (71.3M 3-Day, 87.2M first 6 days)

 

Day 29-16

12% of Infinity War (31.1M 3-Day, 38.9M first 6 days)

43% of Captain Marvel (65.5M 3-Day, 80.1M first 6 days)

 

Drops, but like Annabelle, it's excused due to Day 16 being a Wednesday for the comps. Not really anything interesting at the moment.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Toy Story 4 1,724 2,015 3,101 3,145 2,762 2,471 5,413
  11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days
               
Annabelle 3 66 55 81 53 56 60 65
  16 days 15 days 14 days 13 days 12 days 11 days 10 days
               
Spider-Man FFH 907 803 1,192 1,064 941 630 1,073
  22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days 18 days 17 days 16 days

 

Toy Story

Day 11-5

66% of Incredibles 2 (120M)

140% of Aladdin (128.6M 3-Day, 164.1M 4-Day)

282% of Shazam! (150.8M)

464% of Lego 2 (158.4M)

325% of Dragon 3 (178.9M)

428% of Dumbo (197M)

 

Day 18-5

64% of Incredibles 2 (117.8M)

135% of Aladdin (124M 3-Day, 158.3M 4-Day)

416% of Lego 2 (141.9M)

281% of Shazam! (150.4M)

334% of Dumbo (153.6M)

284% of Dragon 3 (156.1M)

 

Added in a new set to look at, and it's...interesting. I don't know what the "11-6" comps looked like (I don't really want to either by the by), but those comps do point to an above-average opener...kinda. I said this before, but Incredibles and Aladdin, arguably the strongest comps to use here, have the film opening, fine, albeit just slightly above TS3. But then everything else points to a breakout. I'll probably just wait until tomorrow to see where the dust settles.

 

Annabelle

Day 16-10

12% of Us (8.4M 3-Day, 10M first 5 days)

23% of The Nun (12.6M 3-Day, 14.6M first 5 days)

289% of The First Purge (50.2M 3-Day, 90.3M 5-Day)

 

Day 22-10

13% of Us (9.3M 3-Day, 11.1M first 5 days)

33% of The Nun (17.8M 3-Day, 20.6M first 5 days)

340% of The First Purge (59.1M 3-Day, 106.4M 5-Day)

 

Cumulative

260% of The First Purge (45.2M 3-Day, 81.4M 5-Day)

 

All the comps went down, which is still explainable for Us and Nun, since their "Day 10" was a Tuesday. Purge is also coming down to Earth, which is also good, because then we can actually extrapolate something.

 

Far From Home

Day 22-16

13% of Infinity War (32.4M 3-Day, 40.6M first 6 days)

46% of Captain Marvel (71.3M 3-Day, 87.2M first 6 days)

 

Day 29-16

12% of Infinity War (31.1M 3-Day, 38.9M first 6 days)

43% of Captain Marvel (65.5M 3-Day, 80.1M first 6 days)

 

Drops, but like Annabelle, it's excused due to Day 16 being a Wednesday for the comps. Not really anything interesting at the moment.

One thing about TS4 is that discount Tuesday appears to be contributing an abnormally large share of sales right now. That may skew the comps a bit

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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Menor said:

One thing about TS4 is that discount Tuesday appears to be contributing an abnormally large share of sales right now. That may skew the comps a bit

My family saw I2 Fri night and just bought 3 for TS4 on Tuesday. It’s got that “will be great but no need to fear spoilers” vibe.

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

My family saw I2 Fri night and just bought 3 for TS4 on Tuesday. It’s got that “will be great but no need to fear spoilers” vibe.

that could help its legs a lot(as it is a movie of this kind/no wworry spoliers), especially if its good 

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