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kayumanggi

Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

By kayumanggi, in Numbers and Data

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I think TF5 is pretty much just going to be a 150M movie.

 

If TF5, APES3 and POTC5 all finish 150-175 it would be the end of an era.

TF5 and APES3 are looking into that category according to many.

POTC5 is looking at 200+ says tracking but I don't know...there is an outdated feel to it.

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted

Transformers doesn't have a shot in Heaven at 300M. I think it's gonna fall anywhere between 170 and 200M. The lack of DOM interest is real w/this one. Sadly, it's gonna pull an Age Of Extinction and get another billion OS because OS audiences like dumb explosions and brainless movies. I agree w/@drdungbeetle: if Pirates 5 is a good or at least solid and fun watch, it has a shot at outgrossing TF5 (not a huge one, but one nonetheless). It is a noticeably anticipated movie.

 

The only three other movies this Summer w/a chance at 300M are Wonder Woman, Despicable Me 3 and Spider-Man: Homecoming, and I'm actually skeptical on Spider-Man anyway. The other two will explode, no question, but I gotta feeling that SM will be hurt by the GA's apathy towards the ASM films, even if it will open bigger than both of them (let's go 100M+ OW, baby). It's gonna be O/U 300M, I think.

 

Apes has a 200M shot, as does Cars 3 if it's any good whatsoever. Dunkirk could be a dark horse, but I severely doubt it (Interstellar numbers tops). Rest is sub 150M or death.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Age old rule strikes again.

 

If the last film in a franchise burns the audience or draws derision among the fans, the next installment (whether a sequel, prequel or reboot) will pay for it. Why this is never taken into account (especially by tracking) continues to amaze me.

 

Agree. There are rare cases like IM3 which got a TA-bump and did not really pay for IM2's mixed reception.

But else at least in the OW, you can see the good/bad impact of the previous movie (unless you botch up marketing i.e STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS).

 

That's why CARS3 should end up below 200 even if it's very good.

It's gonna start off sub-55 OW thanks to CARS2 imo.

Then it's own quality can push it some distance but if original animations like BOSS BABY and PETS do 3.4-3.6x,

CARS3 could do 3.2-3.3x at most which will give it 175-180 with 55 ow.

Edited by a2knet
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drdungbeetle Sleeper Hit

drdungbeetle

Posted
Posted

TF5 would REALLY have to overperform internationally to hit a bil worldwide with 150 mil US. I mean REALLY, REALLY crush everything in every single country to make up for flaccid US run. I don't see it increasing internationally from TF4, so it's...unlikely.

 

People don't seem to realize that it was kinda hard for even Extinction to hit that 1 bil and that still went well over 200 mil US.

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

KING ARTHUR was beheaded in its 2nd weekend dropping -55% w/ just $6.8M, $27M total.

 

To be fair, it could've dropped 60% and it didn't. (Btw, I do know that's from the ER Twitter, don't get me wrong here)

 

Still, for a 175M budget, this easily ranks it as one of the biggest bombs of all time DOM.

 

Poor Guy Ritchie. One has to wonder how much of an impact will this have on his stay as Aladdin's director. Although, w/Disney's attachment (and Aladdin being one of their most popular films), I don't think they care. They could hire Uwe Boll and Aladdin would still turn a profit on a Goddamn 200M budget.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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drdungbeetle Sleeper Hit

drdungbeetle

Posted
Posted
Just now, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

To be fair, it could've dropped 60% and it didn't.

 

Still, for a 175M budget, this easily ranks it as one of the biggest bombs of all time DOM.

 

Poor Guy Ritchie. Although, since the wom of this movie is not all that unfavorable, I wonder how much of an impact will this have on his stay as Aladdin's director. Although, w/Disney's attachment (and Aladdin being one of their most popular films), I don't think they care. They could hire Uwe Boll and Aladdin would still turn a profit on a Goddamn 200M budget.

They're not using him for Aladdin after this (and Aladdin is a terrible choice anyway given various US political reasons).

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MCKillswitch123 Summer Tentpole

MCKillswitch123

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, drdungbeetle said:

They're not using him for Aladdin after this (and Aladdin is a terrible choice anyway given various US political reasons).

 

I would agree were it not for the Disney factor. If there is one company that could unite us all even on the odds of global racial tensions, it's Team Mouse. Aladdin is one of their golden children, after all.

 

But I get your point.

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filmnerdjamie Box Office Gold

filmnerdjamie

Posted
Posted
Just now, drdungbeetle said:

They're not using him for Aladdin after this (and Aladdin is a terrible choice anyway given various US political reasons).

 

Ritchie lined up this well-before King Arthur opened, and even by that point, it was already a write-off for WB (It was heavily reshot and reshuffled in their release calendar several times). This means nothing to Aladdin.

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

To be fair, it could've dropped 60% and it didn't. (Btw, I do know that's from the ER Twitter, don't get me wrong here)

 

Still, for a 175M budget, this easily ranks it as one of the biggest bombs of all time DOM.

 

Poor Guy Ritchie. One has to wonder how much of an impact will this have on his stay as Aladdin's director. Although, w/Disney's attachment (and Aladdin being one of their most popular films), I don't think they care. They could hire Uwe Boll and Aladdin would still turn a profit on a Goddamn 200M budget.

Imagine where King Arthur is having good results :ph34r:

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drdungbeetle Sleeper Hit

drdungbeetle

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

I would agree were it not for the Disney factor. If there is one company that could unite us all even on the odds of global racial tensions, it's Team Mouse. Aladdin is one of their golden children, after all.

 

But I get your point.

Yeah, and Kendall Jenner can erase the race war!

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