Honey! Where is my supersuit? Incredibles 2 as Highest Grossing Movie of Summer 2018 Domestic

[YM!]

This is YourMother back at it again with another club. And welcome to The Star over Coco club, jk of course (for now ) Some of you have been complaining that some of my clubs should be bolder, and if the folks want bold they'll get bold. I honestly believe The Incredibles 2 will outgross all summer movies domestically for a shitton of reasons.

 

Reasons

1.) June has a lot of stuff.

While I'm confident that Han Solo will probably have a big four day I'm not expecting strong legs due to competition and lack of hype. It opens after the anticipated IW and 💀💩L2 Not to mention the holiday will cause it to drop harder. The next weekend O8 will take away females. The next two weekends it'll get trucked by Incredibles 2 and JWFK.

 

2.) Not as much of a draw

Sure, Solo will be big but remember it's a spinoff, sure Rogue One did $533M but it was the holidays and arguably had more appeal as the second Star Wars movie after a 10 year drought with Darth Vader. The cast seems lacking to in comparison. JWFK looks at a decrease and although IW is threat numero uno, it’ll be uber frontloaded.

 

3.) Incredibles 2 is the last major family film in a while

Let's look at the animated/family films movies of 2018. Paddington will be lucky to $70M domestic, Peter Rabbit will do average business, Early Man will be forgotten quick, Wrinkle is the only one with potential to do $200M domestic and that has more broader appeal, Gnomes will do Storks/Underpants numbers or under and we all know it. As of 3/19/17 only Rabbit between Coco and I2 reaches $100M, Point is the market is so dry for a major animated event/family film, Incredibles 2 will massively breakout and has no real tough competition to give it subpar late legs (HT3 is doing KFP3 numbers and TTG doing Angry Birds numbers at most) and as shown with DM3, you can have longer legs with no very much competition.

 

4.) Incredibles 2: Pixar's Most Wanted Sequel 

At this point although audiences have been somewhat tired of Pixar sequels outside of TS3 and Dory, this is the most wanted in years.

 

 

So are you IN or OUT?

 

IN (Team Incredibles)

Me (I2 $130M/$450M vs Solo $140M/$175M/$420M)

MrFanaticGuy34

Ethan Hunt

CaptainJackSparrow

ChipMunky

 

 

OUT (The Force is Strong with Me) 

Super Robertman2 Odyssey

MCkillswitch123

Kalo

 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by YourMother the Edgelord

[robertman2]

No

[MCKillswitch123]

Out.

 

Unnecessary or not, Han Solo still has "Star Wars" in the title.

 

Despite the obvious demand for its existance and the golden age of superhero movies, Incredibles 2 isn't even guaranteed to cross 400M DOM (the 1st one did 370M+ adjusted, but it was piggybacking off of Pixar's popularity exploding in a post-Finding Nemo world, and Nemo did almost 500M adjusted).

[MrFanaticGuy34]

IN.

[filmlover]

YOU TELL ME WHERE MY LIGHTSABER IS, WOMAN!

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

YOU TELL ME WHERE MY LIGHTSABER IS, WOMAN!

WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THE GREATER GOOD!

[Ethan Hunt]

IN

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

IN

How much are you thinking out of curiosity?

 

2 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

IN.

 

[Ethan Hunt]

Just now, YourMother said:

How much are you thinking out of curiosity?

 

 

460M for The Incredibles vs 425M for Han Solo

[MrFanaticGuy34]

45 minutes ago, YourMother said:

How much are you thinking out of curiosity?

 

 

Well, Finding Dory made $486M DOM with a $135M OW.

 

If several things or everything goes right, this could be the biggest animated film of the year.

 

So, conservative-wise....I'll say $465-480M, with a $140-155M OW. But if it's as amazing as the Toy Story-sequels & Finding Dory....i would not be surprised if it somehow gets to over $500M DOM....and coexist with Jurassic World 2.

Edited June 15, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[CaptainJackSparrow]

In.

[MCKillswitch123]

You people predicting 460+, even 500M for The Incredibles 2 need to let me have what you're having, cause I think that's a bit of a ridiculous expectation.

 

TS3 and Dory were both enormous, yes, but Toy Story and Nemo are both franchises that are far more popular, more successful and more impactful in pop culture than The Incredibles ever was. And this is hardly another Shrek or Despicable Me case where the 1st one was extremely popular despite doing less than some other animated films that followed them, and then the sequel just totally exploded. Again, those movies touched the mainstream zeitgeist in a way that Incredibles never quite achieved. I mean, theoretically, this sequel will explode, especially in comparision to the original, but it will hardly explode to a 460M+ height.

 

That's not to say that 400M DOM isn't a great target, cause it is, w/the Pixar brand, the hype attached to it and the golden age of superhero films. Hell, I will even give you up to 420-430M. But that high of a ceiling, I just don't see it myself.

Edited June 15, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[Kalo]

This could be close, and I agree Han Solo will have the worst legs of any star wars film released by Disney so far simply becuase of it's release and competition. however it's opening will be massive. I'm thinking it reaches $200m on it's 4 day opening. Incredibles will be huge, but there are like 3 other superhero films releases just a month around it. 

 

I'm still thinking Han Solo does $470m+ and Incredibles will probably tap out at $430-$450m. So out. good club though.  

Edited June 15, 2017 by Kalo

[YM!]

53 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

That's not to say that 400M DOM isn't a great target, cause it is, w/the Pixar brand, the hype attached to it and the golden age of superhero films. Hell, I will even give you up to 420-430M. But that high of a ceiling, I just don't see it myself.

In my opinion $450M-$460M is I2 ceiling since it benefits from a huge drought from Family films. I just see Han Solo having a lower domestic ceiling due to a lot more overlap in competition.

Edited June 15, 2017 by YourMother

[MCKillswitch123]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

In my opinion $450M-$460M is I2 ceiling since it benefits from a huge drought from Family films. I just see Han Solo having a lower domestic total.

 

Hmm, maybe, but still, Captain Underpants had the benefit of a big drought from family films (the last big one was the previous Fox/DreamWorks colab Boss Baby), and it opened to half of Boss Baby's numbers. Cars 3 is easily gonna be the biggest since Boss Baby, probably more like since Beauty And The Beast, and it won't do that great either (55-60M OW more than likely). Now granted, Incredibles 2 is a much bigger deal than either of those, but they're still examples of why having a dryout in the market you're appealing to doesn't immediately mean that your movie will be the next Frozen or Finding Dory. Incredibles 2 needs to be really great to reach that high of a ceiling, as it won't have enough in the tank to co-exist w/Hotel Transylvania 3 (though that movie only opens 5 weeks into I2's run).

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Hmm, maybe, but still, Captain Underpants had the benefit of a big drought from family films (the last big one was the previous Fox/DreamWorks colab Boss Baby), and it opened to half of Boss Baby's numbers. Cars 3 is easily gonna be the biggest since Boss Baby, probably more like since Beauty And The Beast, and it won't do that great either (55-60M OW more than likely). Now granted, Incredibles 2 is a much bigger deal than either of those, but they're still examples of why having a dryout in the market you're appealing to doesn't immediately mean that your movie will be the next Frozen or Finding Dory. Incredibles 2 needs to be really great to reach that high of a ceiling, as it won't have enough in the tank to co-exist w/Hotel Transylvania 3 (though that movie only opens 5 weeks into I2's run).

However to be fair Underpants in hindsight got a decent amount of families taken away thanks to Wonder Woman (some of us thought the opposite happening) and had a relatively late marketing campaign. Still in 2017, until C3, we had 2 animated family films over $170M (TLBM and BB) 3 if we count Beast, 2018 is looking at if we're lucky one $100M family film, and HT3 will be lucky to make $150M domestic, SPA isn't Illumination. The only other family films I2 has to face are HT3 (5 weeks later) and AP (8 weeks later), Dory faced a bombardment of family films (Pets, IA5, PD, Kubo) Considering Pixar's quality odds are looking good for TI2 to be fantastic. Thinking $375M-$450M for I2 vs HS $380M-$420M

[Barnack]

Out, but good club imo.

 

Star wars entry were all the biggest domestic movie of their respective year except for Attack of the Clones (the worst of them all), even Rogue One made a freak 530 million.

 

The strength of the brand, one of the most popular character of the franchise history, Lord and Miller that has yet to do a bad movie imo, too much going on for it to bet against.

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

32 minutes ago, YourMother said:

However to be fair Underpants in hindsight got a decent amount of families taken away thanks to Wonder Woman (some of us thought the opposite happening) and had a relatively late marketing campaign. Still in 2017, until C3, we had 2 animated family films over $170M (TLBM and BB) 3 if we count Beast, 2018 is looking at if we're lucky one $100M family film, and HT3 will be lucky to make $150M domestic, SPA isn't Illumination. The only other family films I2 has to face are HT3 (5 weeks later) and AP (8 weeks later), Dory faced a bombardment of family films (Pets, IA5, PD, Kubo) Considering Pixar's quality odds are looking good for TI2 to be fantastic. Thinking $375M-$450M for I2 vs HS $380M-$420M

 

Yeah, and Trolls also had to fight Doctor Strange in its OW, and look how that fared. And Inside Out had to cope w/the 100M+ 2nd weekend of Jurassic World in its 1st days, and it made over 90M. Granted, women are always a strong part of an animated film, but ultimately, I wouldn't say that Wonder Woman taking away a chunk out of Underpants' business would've been enough to keep it from doing somewhere close to 40M OW (which is the range of most DreamWorks movies nowadays) if people were genuinely interested in it. The marketing, admitedly, is entirely Fox's fault, and a problem that I2 won't have to fight, so that is a good (and true) point.

 

Another good point is that I2 will have an empty market without any massive hit in the previous few months, but it's still a stretch to say that demands up to 450M from The Incredibles 2, especially coming off Han Solo which isn't a family film but probably will play well w/families, Deadpool 2 which is another major superhero movie, and Bumblebee which is also gonna be family friendly (won't be a huge hit obviously, but still). And out of the bombardment of films that Dory fought, only Pets made a dent in its run, cause all of the other ones didn't do all that great.

 

Idk, I just think that's a bit too much. Again, not impossible and I would love to be wrong, but I don't see it right now.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

 

Yeah, and Trolls also had to fight Doctor Strange in its OW, and look how that fared. And Inside Out had to cope w/the 100M+ 2nd weekend of Jurassic World in its 1st days, and it made over 90M. Granted, women are always a strong part of an animated film, but ultimately, I wouldn't say that Wonder Woman taking away a chunk out of Underpants' business would've been enough to keep it from doing somewhere close to 40M OW (which is the range of most DreamWorks movies nowadays) if people were genuinely interested in it. The marketing, admitedly, is entirely Fox's fault, and a problem that I2 won't have to fight, so that is a good (and true) point.

 

Another good point is that I2 will have an empty market without any massive hit in the previous few months, but it's still a stretch to say that demands up to 450M from The Incredibles 2, especially coming off Han Solo which isn't a family film but probably will play well w/families, Deadpool 2 which is another major superhero movie, and Bumblebee which is also gonna be family friendly (won't be a huge hit obviously, but still). And out of the bombardment of films that Dory fought, only Pets made a dent in its run, cause all of the other ones didn't do all that great.

 

Idk, I just think that's a bit too much. Again, not impossible and I would love to be wrong, but I don't see it right now.

Good point about Dory. Han Solo I can see having some families but as big as Deadpool was, I don't think 2 will be bigger or even as big. Deadpool 2 and Bumblebee will likely hurt Solo more than TI2. Plus nostalgia may help TI2 however I think $460M is the absolute ceiling. Han Solo, I think will have an 4 Day at or around $160M-$180M. The films in June will hurt Solo more than TI2.

[MCKillswitch123]

6 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Good point about Dory. Han Solo I can see having some families but as big as Deadpool was, I don't think 2 will be bigger or even as big. Deadpool 2 and Bumblebee will likely hurt Solo more than TI2. Plus nostalgia may help TI2 however I think $460M is the absolute ceiling. Han Solo, I think will have an 4 Day at or around $160M-$180M. The films in June will hurt Solo more than TI2.

 

I don't know about that, I think Han Solo can co-exist w/just about anything, cause at the end of the day, it's got Star Wars in the title, and while I'm not giving it 500M off that alone (Rogue One did have the advantage of coming only 2nd in this Star Wars resurgence + holiday legs), I do still think that it can make itself some good money, even w/the absurd competition.

 

I do think that it should be moved to December though, as it won't hurt Mary Poppins since they have wildly different audiences.