Is anyone other than DiCaprio really a draw??

[Kingp0va]

I mean, i cant name of anyone else who's really a draw these days. It seems like most have a good run then it stops (jennifer lawrence has been underperforming or flopping since the last hunger games), will smith is a flop now, tom cruise only succeeds with Mission impossible...

 

edit: dicaprio aint even that much of a draw overseas

Edited June 26, 2017 by Kingp0va

[Ethan Hunt]

J-LAW

 

Ummmmmm

 

 

That might be it?

[Kingp0va]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

J-LAW

 

Ummmmmm

 

 

That might be it?

not with ha last 4 flops or underperformances

 

12/21/16	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$100,014,699	3,478	$14,869,736	3,478	10
5/27/16	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$155,442,489	4,153	$65,769,562	4,150	6
							-
12/25/15	Joy	Fox	$56,451,232	2,924	$17,015,168	2,896	11
11/20/15	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2	LGF	$281,723,902	4,175	$102,665,981	4,175	4

[Ethan Hunt]

1 minute ago, Kingp0va said:

not with ha last 4 flops or underperformances

 

12/21/16	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$100,014,699	3,478	$14,869,736	3,478	10
5/27/16	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$155,442,489	4,153	$65,769,562	4,150	6
							-
12/25/15	Joy	Fox	$56,451,232	2,924	$17,015,168	2,896	11
11/20/15	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2	LGF	$281,723,902	4,175	$102,665,981	4,175	4

No dude. J-Law is definitive draw. Non of those movies come close the those numbers with anyone else. Passengers is the only one that can really be seen as underwhelming in any way shape of form

[Barnack]

I would need to ask you to define draw (if Dicaprio is barely one oversea) to answer that.

 

Hard to imagine how Kevin Hart, Melissa Mccarthy, Denzel Washington and a long list are not fully proven draw (to me it is someone that is very presence change in a significant way the box office of a movie, specially the opening).

 

The average studio ultra wide release do around 14m first weekend, if an actor often do usually more than that you need to start to look for a reason (could be the projects, etc... but it could be being a draw).

 

Quote

 

jennifer lawrence has been underperforming or flopping since the last hunger games

 

Maybe, but why Passenger did 3 time has much as Life or almost twice as much as GITS or that her last 2 Christmas movies opened so much higher than Will Smith one.

 

78% of the people there at first weekend of Passenger said it was because of the actors in the movies according to the cinemascore exit poll, that is a lot for a movie nowadays (if is often in the 20-30% range), maybe she is not a draw (would need you to define that term) but with Pratt she certainly was.

 

I think one issue is people loosing track on what live action non sequel/strong IPs tend to do at the box office, the last 2 year's it was around 37 million domestic/79 million Worldwide in average for big release, if your movie at a frequent enough rate does more than that, your are possibly a draw (or you are getting the better project commercially for an other reason, could be luck).

Edited June 26, 2017 by Barnack

[Chewy]

Curious to hear an argument for DiCaprio being a draw and the Rock not being one

[grey ghost]

9 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Curious to hear an argument for DiCaprio being a draw and the Rock not being one

 

I have a 50 page thesis titled "Baywatch".

 

I'll fax it to you.

[aabattery]

11 minutes ago, Chewy said:

Curious to hear an argument for DiCaprio being a draw and the Rock not being one

 

Leonardo DiCaprio is the man in the iron mask. Iron is a magnetic metal so he is a draw.

 

The Rock is a rock and a rock is not a magnet so he is not a draw.

[grey ghost]

Denzel is always guaranteed to pull in 70-100 m. (Fences was a smaller movie)

 

That's better than 99% of actors.

 

In other words, franchises have all the "star" power now.

 

People were tired of following actors from movie to movie only to find themselves sitting in movies like Mortdecai for 2 hours.

[DMan7]

I don't think any actor / actresses are box office draws, its just the interesting concept of the movie and hype / marketing that draws people to watch it. 

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

Leonardo DiCaprio is the man in the iron mask. Iron is a magnetic metal so he is a draw.

 

The Rock is a rock and a rock is not a magnet so he is not a draw.

 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

I have a 50 page thesis titled "Baywatch".

 

I'll fax it to you.

 

I don't know, a bit like using a rotten drama called the Judge that still did more than the average wide release argument for RDJ not being a draw, I'm not sure Baywatch say that about Johnson, that movie will still reach an impressive 140m with a 19% RT score.

Depending on how strong that IP still was outside some market were it really was like Germany, it could be showing on much of a draw Johnson is.

 

Fist Fight got a really big marketing campaing and made 40m ww, 32 dom. Neighbors 2 made 108m WW, 55 dbo

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

I don't know, a bit like using a rotten drama called the Judge that still did more than the average wide release argument for RDJ not being a draw, I'm not sure Baywatch say that about Johnson, that movie will still reach an impressive 140m with a 19% RT score.

Depending on how strong that IP still was outside some market were it really was like Germany, it could be showing on much of a draw Johnson is.

 

Fist Fight got a really big marketing campaing and made 40m ww, 32 dom. Neighbors 2 made 108m WW, 55 dbo

 

I'm going to wager that the studio was hoping for alot more for Baywatch.

[Barnack]

3 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

I don't think any actor / actresses are box office draws, its just the interesting concept of the movie and hype / marketing that draws people to watch it. 

 

Do you think that if the movie Tammy:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tammy.htm

 

Would have got the same marketing budget, trailers, free awareness giving by the media, theater at the same release day with total unknowns actor that it would have reached 100m ?

 

That Identity thief would have been one of the biggest money maker of the year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=identitythief.htm

 

With a unknown actress ?

 

It is hard to know (maybe impossible) because usually those movie do not exist and if they do, do not get the theaters/same amount of free awareness from the press, without actor perceived as draw, and probably that most of their power is into getting theaters and good release date, it will be hard to distinguish those 2 elements from their actual drawing powers, the comparable with unknown will very often just not exist. But I doubt it is the case.

 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, grey ghost said:

 

I'm going to wager that the studio was hoping for alot more for Baywatch.

 

Well sure, but a draw is simply someone that the same movie, with the same reception would have made significantly less at the Box office if it would have been an unknown at is place, or maybe I'm not using the right definition.

 

Not someone that always make what a studio hoped for (specially when those expectation are influenced by is presence in the movie in the first place)

[Ethan Hunt]

So Baywatch with Leo?

 

The Revenant with The Rock?

[aftershocks]

43 minutes ago, Kingp0va said:

not with ha last 4 flops or underperformances

 

12/21/16	Passengers (2016)	Sony	$100,014,699	3,478	$14,869,736	3,478	10
5/27/16	X-Men: Apocalypse	Fox	$155,442,489	4,153	$65,769,562	4,150	6
							-
12/25/15	Joy	Fox	$56,451,232	2,924	$17,015,168	2,896	11
11/20/15	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2	LGF	$281,723,902	4,175	$102,665,981	4,175	4

 

Reception affects box office performance. You can't say she isn't a draw when her last two original films exceeded expectations after poor reviews and heavy competition. If she releases a well-received film and it flops, then you can make the case that she isn't a draw.

 

Edit: It's also worth noting that Passengers outperformed other original Sci-Fi films with mediocre-to-poor reviews that starred top A-listers. Elysium, After Earth, Oblivion, and Tomorrowland all did worse than Passengers, despite starring some of the most famous actors in the world. And only After Earth had worse reviews.

Edited June 26, 2017 by aftershocks

[DMan7]

13 minutes ago, Barnack said:

 

Do you think that if the movie Tammy:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=tammy.htm

 

Would have got the same marketing budget, trailers, free awareness giving by the media, theater at the same release day with total unknowns actor that it would have reached 100m ?

 

That Identity thief would have been one of the biggest money maker of the year:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=identitythief.htm

 

With a unknown actress ?

 

It is hard to know (maybe impossible) because usually those movie do not exist and if they do, do not get the theaters/same amount of free awareness from the press, without actor perceived as draw, and probably that most of their power is into getting theaters and good release date, it will be hard to distinguish those 2 elements from their actual drawing powers, the comparable with unknown will very often just not exist. But I doubt it is the case.

 

At the end of the day its difficult to quantify what level of box office draw a certain actor / actress has on a movie and it would be impossible to remake the same movie at the same time the original movie was release with a different actor / actress to see if it has a bigger or smaller draw.

[TwoMisfits]

Tom Cruise is the biggest draw worldwide.  Even if his movies clunk domestically, he always make bank overseas...

 

Leo is not close to Tom (yet)...

[Barnack]

8 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

At the end of the day its difficult to quantify what level of box office draw a certain actor / actress has on a movie and it would be impossible to remake the same movie at the same time the original movie was release with a different actor / actress to see if it has a bigger or smaller draw.

 

That what make it hard, you rarely have a good comparable (non IP movie/big commercial big concept without big stars just never get worldwide ultra wide release on good release date, only the very best movie performing really well in limited release grow and grow over time, movie with perceived stars or IP/high concept hook do so)

 

Isolating the star factor is nearly impossible I imagine, specially without access to exit poll and other metrics studio has, but the fact they spend money on them (could just be loving having them has an excuse they can give when a movie do not work to keep their job) seem to indicate there is something really there, and someone like Kevin Hart or Denzel track record, seem way too lucky at this point for them to be non factor, Denzel opened 16 of is 17 last wide release movie, that is just too good and they were not that better than is competition.