5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Premium George]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

Pretty sure WW's presales were roughly 75-80% of where Suicide Squad's were and guess where WW opened at? So take that into account and SMH is also 75-80% of where Suicide Squad was....which had an unbelievable rush factor. 

 

And we arent talking about legs. We are talking about its OW which if you're going to bring up its IM, is very similar to other films in the MCU that were well received. The only the thing WW has done differently is have stellar drops since. But that's not what we are discussing. We are discussing its OW. 

It's 45% of gotg2 presales at same point. gotg2 was a sequel and people are sceptical of homecoming now. So less rush factor for homecoming. Seeing this increase 45% to 75%, which is generous gives us 110 OW.

[Alli]

Just now, damnitgeorge08 said:

It's 45% of gotg2 presales at same point. gotg2 was a sequel and people are sceptical of homecoming now. So less rush factor for homecoming. Seeing this increase 45% to 75%, which is generous gives us 110 OW.

Positive RT should help or is the TOMATO LAW useless???! 

[DAJK]

Lmao my friend from Vancouver is talking about how much of the streets in Gastown are closed down to film Deadpool 2  

 

It just makes the movie seem tangible at this point, that it's really happening!

[Nova]

What's funny is when the presale reports were coming in for WW and they were about 80% of Suicide Squad everyone took that as WW going above SS or coming close because there was no way WW was going to have the same rush factor as SS therefore most folks hadn't bought their tickets yet. 

 

And WW opened at $103M which is roughly 76% of where SS opened up and right in line with what the presales were saying. 

 

So lets say SMH has a similar rush factor as Suicide Squad. If SMH is neck and neck with WW then that means SMH is also 75-80% of Suicide Squad. So if SMH and SS both have a huge rush factor (and we all know DCEU films tend to be way more presales and preview driven) then why would SMH open up significantly less than the $100-105M it's currently looking at based on presale data? 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Nova

[Nova]

Just now, DAJK said:

Lmao my friend from Vancouver is talking about how much of the streets in Gastown are closed down to film Deadpool 2  

 

It just makes the movie seem tangible at this point, that it's really happening!

I wish I was in Vancouver to see filming happen 

[WrathOfHan]

First person to say that SS and WW were undeveloped characters prior to release is going to get bitch slapped through his or her screen by me.

Edited July 2, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Premium George]

Just now, Alli said:

Positive RT should help or is the TOMATO LAW useless???! 

I give that thought as advantage. If you cancel that, more rush for homecoming. By the way I think people were sceptical of Wondy too. IMO it should had higher OW if it was not a successor to rotten films.

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Pretty sure WW's presales were roughly 75-80% of where Suicide Squad's were and guess where WW opened at? So take that into account and SMH is also 75-80% of where Suicide Squad was....which had an unbelievable rush factor. 

 

And we arent talking about legs. We are talking about its OW which if you're going to bring up its IM, is very similar to other films in the MCU that were well received. The only the thing WW has done differently is have stellar drops since. But that's not what we are discussing. We are discussing its OW. 

The final update had WW at 82% of SS presales translating into a $110M OW. I also think WW opening on NBA final premiere might have taken air out of its OW and female based movies tend to be more preview heavy.

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, Nova said:

What's funny is when the presale reports were coming in for WW and they were about 80% of Suicide Squad everyone took that as WW going above SS or coming close because there was no way WW was going to have the same rush factor as SS therefore most folks hadn't bought their tickets yet. 

 

And WW opened at $103M which is roughly 76% of where SS opened up and right in line with what the presales were saying. 

 

So lets say SMH has a similar rush factor as Suicide Squad. If SMH is neck and neck with WW then that means SMH is also 75-80% of Suicide Squad. So if SMH and SS both have a huge rush factor (and well know DCEU films tend to be way more presales and preview driven) then why would SMH open up significantly less than the $100-105M it's currently looking at based on presale data? 

 

 

a Spider-Man movie these days is definitely having an uprfront rush factor. 

[Cmasterclay]

6 minutes ago, Nova said:

Pretty sure WW's presales were roughly 75-80% of where Suicide Squad's were and guess where WW opened at? So take that into account and SMH is also 75-80% of where Suicide Squad was....which had an unbelievable rush factor. 

 

And we arent talking about legs. We are talking about its OW which if you're going to bring up its IM, is very similar to other films in the MCU that were well received. The only the thing WW has done differently is have stellar drops since. But that's not what we are discussing. We are discussing its OW. 

I guess we'll just have to disagree on the first point - I think a Spider-Man movie should be outperforming WW in presales if it is going to outperform it on opening weekend. As for the IM, this isn't Ant-Man or Dr. Strange. This is freakin Spider-Man, opening in the heart of the summer. It's not gonna have as good an IM as Wondy or those movies. If it matches WW on opening day and then has the same IM as Winter Soldier, which had far less of a rush factor, it does 98. That's a good number. If it matches Guardians 1, it does 95, which is what I'm predicting. If it is going to out-open WW, which it seems you are predicting, it needs a bigger opening day. Something like 42m.

[YM!]

Let's remember for OD WW had deflated previews too due to the NBA finals.

[Nova]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

a Spider-Man movie these days is definitely having an uprfront rush factor. 

Which is why I brought up Suicide Squad, a film that also had a huge up front rush factor. 

[Premium George]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

First person to say thatC is going to get bitch slapped through his or her screen by me.

 SS and WW were undeveloped characters prior to release.

Spoiler

You aint good for anything.

 

[Nova]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I guess we'll just have to disagree on the first point - I think a Spider-Man movie should be outperforming WW in presales if it is going to outperform it on opening weekend. As for the IM, this isn't Ant-Man or Dr. Strange. This is freakin Spider-Man, opening in the heart of the summer. It's not gonna have as good an IM as Wondy or those movies. If it matches WW on opening day and then has the same IM as Winter Soldier, which had far less of a rush factor, it does 98. That's a good number. If it matches Guardians 1, it does 95, which is what I'm predicting. If it is going to out-open WW, which it seems you are predicting, it needs a bigger opening day. Something like 42m.

And I think it will. I think SMH can reach $110M+ 

[YM!]

Thinking $95M-$110M like tracking. However I'm thinking it'll have excellent legs after seeing it, my audience are this up. This will be the Pets/IO of Summer 2017.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, damnitgeorge08 said:

 SS and WW were undeveloped characters prior to release.

  Hide contents

You aint good for anything.

 

[Taylor]

16 minutes ago, Blankments said:

do we have numbers for 47MD or RN?

4MD is on The Numbers.

 

7

(4)

47 Meters Down

Entertainment Studi…

$4,682,000

-34%

2,250

$2,081

$32,591,454

17

[Cmasterclay]

I hope SMH does good, btw. Tom Holland enrolled in classes at one of my best friend's old high school in the Bronx. Was in classes with her little brother and everything. Nice guy, apparently. I'm rooting for it based on this dumb personal reason alone.

[baumer]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

 

With SM opening it's not going to drop just 35% this upcoming w/e and it's going to start to lose theaters a lot quicker than it has to up to this point with SM, Apes and Dunkirk opening - movies with great reviews which will most likely also hold onto their theaters and screens unlike Pirates/Mummy/Trans5/Cars

 

I agree that it will fall a little bit this upcoming weekend but I don't agree that the other films you mentioned will really affect it that much. Wonder Woman has proven time and time again that it is a beast unto itself and regardless of how many screens is playing on if people want to see it they will go see it. 390 is the floor in my opinion.

[BenedictL11]

33 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Baby Driver seems to be more accessible than The Nice Guys was, so maybe it will have better legs. 

Maybe? It will definitely have better legs even with tough competition thanks to better WOM. TNG only got a B- in CinemaScore.