5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

I personally don't see The Star or Ferdinand doing huge numbers. 

Thinking $65M-$100M for both.

[Jonwo]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Thinking $65M-$100M for both.

 

More likely than $150m....

[cannastop]

6 minutes ago, DamienRoc said:

 

Relative to other releases, we're probably looking at a top animated performance on par with the worst of any previous years (2011 and 2012), and it's possible that no animated film may crack the top 10. Unless Coco breaks out, but even then, I'd say a top 5 finish for the year is highly unlikely.

Thanks for that, but I thought we were talking about DM3 surpassing $200m dom.

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

More likely than $150m....

Nah, I've given up on the whole The Star over $150M theory for now until a trailer drops and I can gauge the reaction. Ferdinand on the other hand, I have always thought best case scenario was $110M.

Edited July 3, 2017 by YourMother

[CJohn]

Ferdinand has John Cena. It will do 1B.

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Moana (in terms of competition family wise) faced Strange ($232M), Trolls ($150M), Beasts ($233M) before release and after release dealt with Rogue One ($533M), and Sing ($270M).

 

Thor will likely be bigger than Strange ($250M-$320M), The Star should do $65M-$100M but if it catches on it could do $150M, Daddy's Home 2 could also do $65M-$100M, JL is definitely going to be bigger than Beasts ($375M-$425M). After Coco release it has competition from Jedi which will definitely be bigger than Rogue One ($700M-$850M), and Ferdinand which seems likely for $85M-$100M both on the same weekend. Then Jumanji opens the next weekend and could do $160M-$170M and maybe even $200M+, Showman is also another musical which could draw in families, ($85M-$100M).

 

A CBM or a movie like FB cannot affect COCO the same way as another animation. Cars3 for eg would not have dropped this much if it was not for DM3, and it would have held better against a CBM or a movie like FB. So Sing was the major competitor of Moana and that way Coco has it better. But there are more biggies no doubt.

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I got Coco doing Good Dino numbers

 

Before they added the Frozen full-length episode to it, I had it above Good Dino, but still sucky...now I don't know if that episode will help or hurt the movie...

[YM!]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Before they added the Frozen full-length episode to it, I had it above Good Dino, but still sucky...now I don't know if that episode will help or hurt the movie...

Frozen Fever didn't help Cinderella. It tracked at $70M and opened at $70M finishing at $200M.

[Ethan Hunt]

Isn't this short ridiculously long though? I can see or causing negative WoM

[YM!]

I'm thinking the combined domestic total of Paddington 2, Arctic Squad, Peter Rabbit, Early Man, Gnomes, and Sgt Stubby (I would add in the Laika film but I don't think it's happening) is under the domestic total of Zootopia.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Isn't this short ridiculously long though? I can see or causing negative WoM

22 minutes of songs and Olaf. Not to mention it's likely to be on ABC a few weeks later too.

Edited July 3, 2017 by YourMother

[Ethan Hunt]

2 minutes ago, YourMother said:

22 minutes of songs and Olaf. Not to mention it's likely to be on ABC a few weeks later too.

Yeah I can see that being a driving factor in people saying “yeah maybe Coco can wait for DVD"

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Yeah I can see that being a driving factor in people saying “yeah maybe Coco can wait for DVD"

Coco better only be an hour long then :/

[YM!]

1 minute ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Yeah I can see that being a driving factor in people saying “yeah maybe Coco can wait for DVD"

Not to mention, Disney may put in little effort in marketing since they have two bigger hits to focus on: Thor and Jedi.

[That One Girl]

18 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Ferdinand has John Cena. It will do 1B.

 

@JohnC-Nah

[YM!]

Just now, DAJK said:

Coco better only be an hour long then :/

It'll likely be the typical 90-105 minutes with an intermission after the short. Showtimes are going to be ridiculous.

[Ethan Hunt]

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if it went under 100M

[YM!]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Honestly I wouldn't be shocked if it went under 100M

Imagine the outrage.

[Water Bottle]

I wouldn't be surprised if all the Trump supporters refused to watch Coco. Coming out in the wrong year.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Not to mention, Disney may put in little effort in marketing since they have two bigger hits to focus on: Thor and Jedi.

 

You say that but if anything, Coco will get more marketing as Star Wars and Thor are established properties.