5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Zakiyyah6]

Baby Driver finally did an interesting number. Very happy for Wright.

 

The House unsurprisingly flopped. 

 

DM3 recovered. It's number looks good.

 

64% is a pretty good increase for Wonder Woman. I know Saturday will be muted but Sunday should make up for that.

 

Transformers is dying.

 

Where the heck is Cars 3?

[grim22]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

No.

 

I think Tele will pull a Wonder Woman with Valerian and help it to succeed

 

Search your feelings, you know it to be true. Especially with Dunkirk looking to get good reviews and locking it out of IMAX and PLF. Still no idea why they would make a VFX heavy movie which apparently would benefit greatly from IMAX and release it on the one weekend they have no chance of getting IMAX play.

[Biggestgeekever]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Great increase for Baby Driver. DM3 coming in at the high end means that the 4th of July record is still in play albeit difficult. Pretty bad increase for TF5 and really good increase for WW. Guessing DM3 reaches 90M+ for sure with a really good shot at 95M, BD could do 27M+ 3 day. Transformers and WW will be neck and neck at around 16M 3 day for both even with just 15% and 20% increases tomorrow.

I think you're overpredicting DM3. I don't think it does more than $80M with this OD; Saturday increases will be muted based on 2006, so I don't think it will increase much if at all when excluding previews.

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

 

Search your feelings, you know it to be true. Especially with Dunkirk looking to get good reviews and locking it out of IMAX and PLF. Still no idea why they would make a VFX heavy movie which apparently would benefit greatly from IMAX and release it on the one weekend they have no chance of getting IMAX play.

 

You've probably seen this but he did have a "justification" on his AMA. I still think it's a real dumb move, especially when August is so dire.

 

Comment from discussion Hi, I’m Luc Besson, filmmaker behind THE FIFTH ELEMENT and the upcoming sci-fi epic VALERIAN AND THE CITY OF A THOUSAND PLANETS… AMA!.

[That One Girl]

Same holds as SLOP get it to 80M for the weekend.  Given this'll probably be a bit more frontloaded than SLOP given that it's not an original property, I think it'll do 78-79M, for a 260M or so finish.

[grim22]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

I think you're overpredicting DM3. I don't think it does more than $80M with this OD; Saturday increases will be muted based on 2006, so I don't think it will increase much if at all when excluding previews.

 

With 26M True Friday, it only needs 15% increase on Saturday to hit 90M for the weekend basically since Sunday will basically remain flat with Saturday (or even increase for some movies). 30-30-30 gets it to 90 which is not hard at all.

[grim22]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

 

You've probably seen this but he did have a "justification" on his AMA. I still think it's a real dumb move, especially when August is so dire.

 

 

This makes literally no sense. They could have easily taken first weekend of August and got IMAX and PLF screens instead of effectively being locked out of it completely. I think it comes down to Besson's ego not letting him back down, considering that the US is the only market where it is releasing that weekend, even France is a week later.

[aabattery]

Let's have a look at the Summer Game chart for Despicable Me 3:

 

Spoiler

JJ-8 - 421.7m
jj99 - 400m
MovieMan - 365m
Matrix4You - 360m
darkelf - 355m
bcf26 - 355m
damnitgeorge08 - 353m
Exxdee - 350m
Tree - 350m
kayumanggi - 350m
Fancyarcher - 345m
24Lost - 343m
DamienRoc - 343m
aabattery - 340m
Grey Ghost - 335m
narniads - 331m
Spaghetti - 330m
Baumer - 330m
MrPink - 330m
Simionski - 330m
The Dark Alfred - 327m
That One Guy - 320m
WrathofHan - 320m
franfar - 320m
Empire - 316m
Cmasterclay - 315m
Wrath - 314m
grim22 - 310m
#ED - 310m
Goffe - 310m
Chaasmi - 307m
glassfairy - 300m
Mike Hunt - 300m
Telemachos - 295m
Kalo - 294m
Blankments - 289m
The Panda - 285m
Chewy - 280m
BastienGiot - 277m
Jake Gittes - 270m
Water Bottle - 236.7m

 

Looking PRETTY BAD for a lot of us.

 

Then there's Baby Driver:

 

Spoiler

Empire - 101m
kayumanggi - 100m
Kalo - 95m
aabattery - 75m

 

 

?

[That One Girl]

Just now, grim22 said:

They could have easily taken first weekend of August and got IMAX and PLF screens

 

Doesn't Dunkirk have like a ridiculous 5 week IMAX deal or something?

 

Also it's still gonna get PLF screens at AMC theaters with Dolby Atmos, along within Cinemark XD accommodating both films to play in that auditorium.  Plus 3D prices for it should be inflated.

[DAJK]

Dear god the last knight was one of the worst movies I've seen in a loooong time

[grim22]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Doesn't Dunkirk have like a ridiculous 5 week IMAX deal or something?

 

Also it's still gonna get PLF screens at AMC theaters with Dolby Atmos, along within Cinemark XD accommodating both films to play in that auditorium.  Plus 3D prices for it should be inflated.

 

Compare sharing PLF to being the only movie on IMAX and PLF on a given summer weekend. Or even being the only movie in PLF and sharing IMAX. The entire release strategy is making no sense, its like they hate money or something. Tele mentioned "Watch it on the biggest screen available" which looks like a normal 2D screen in theaters currently as opposed to the actual big screens that weekend.

[That One Girl]

Also Dunkirk targets a far older audience than Valerian does.  Very few teens outside of Styles fan girls are going to see a WWII movie, taking place in Europe no less.

[Biggestgeekever]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

With 26M True Friday, it only needs 15% increase on Saturday to hit 90M for the weekend basically since Sunday will basically remain flat with Saturday (or even increase for some movies). 30-30-30 gets it to 90 which is not hard at all.

15% is better than SLOP, isn't it? Seems unlikely under even normal circumstances, and Cars in 2006 had the most muted increase relative to the weekend before.

[aabattery]

5 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

This makes literally no sense. They could have easily taken first weekend of August and got IMAX and PLF screens instead of effectively being locked out of it completely. I think it comes down to Besson's ego not letting him back down, considering that the US is the only market where it is releasing that weekend, even France is a week later.

 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited September 27, 2023 by That One Girl

[Rthmessiah]

32 minutes ago, Wonder of Rth said:

DM3 29.6, BD 7.5, TE 4.7,WW 4.4, TH 2.7

Realised BD should 6.5

[grim22]

1 minute ago, Biggestgeekever said:

15% is better than SLOP, isn't it? Seems unlikely under even normal circumstances, and Cars in 2006 had the most muted increase relative to the weekend before.

 

Friday is also slightly muted as a lot of potential family audience does not show up in the evenings because of travel and other vacation plans. In 2006, the family movies saw the biggest jumps, even Cars 2 jumped almost 30%, so giving it 15% seems likely to me considering increased matinee and evening business, we will see tomorrow I guess. 

[Biggestgeekever]

Just now, Wonder of Rth said:

Realised BD should 6.5

Still a very good number... but what a gut punch!

 

 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

 

Or...go to a local Cinemark and see it on their XD screens?  Or Dolby Atmos?  Or something along those lines.

 

All of which are on sharing basis, and no guarantee it will get the prime showtimes. 

[aabattery]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Honestly though, Valerian got the date first, and even got an IMAX deal when they landed the date.  Dunkirk has not been playing fair with the movie.  They pretty much cheated their way into getting the IMAX solely cause they filmed it entirely with IMAX.

 

Fairness doesn't really have anything to do with it. And I can't really blame IMAX for supporting one of their biggest proponents.