Weekend Thread | Estimates: T:R 57.08M, DH2 29.65M, MOTOE 28.68M, ABMC 11.47M, 32.4K PTA for Lady Bird (Deadline, p.46) | The box office is good again!

[a2k]

1 minute ago, aabattery said:

http://variety.com/2017/film/box-office/thor-ragnarok-box-office-2-1202612696/

 

Variety is still high off some weird-ass supply.

 

Yeah, even Mojo is projecting 61+ with 18.2 Friday.

Quote

SATURDAY AM UPDATE: It's looking to be a solid weekend at the box office with the top five outperforming Mojo's pre-weekend forecast starting with Thor: Ragnarok, which pulled in an estimated $18.2 million in its second Friday in release and is looking to drop a mere 50% in its second weekend with $61+ million.

 

I think they are using normal Sat bumps and not accounting for Vet Day. Thor2 jumped nearly 60% on 2nd Sat but it had the Vet Day on it's 1st Monday so the weekend behave normally. For 61+ Thor3 would need at least a 40% bump on Sat for 25.5 followed by a mid 30s drop on Sunday. I don't think the Sat bump will cross ~20%.

[cannastop]

15 minutes ago, Noctis said:

It's amazing how shitty Coco's marketing has been.

This is true. Coco will be a huge test of Pixar's brand.

[AndyK]

8 minutes ago, aabattery said:

http://variety.com/2017/film/box-office/thor-ragnarok-box-office-2-1202612696/

 

Variety is still high off some weird-ass supply.

Surely the Friday figure makes this pretty unlikely, are they on the wacky backy?

 

Where are they getting their data from?

[Subzero]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah, even Mojo is projecting 61+ with 18.2 Friday.

 

I think they are using normal Sat bumps and not accounting for Vet Day. Thor2 jumped nearly 60% on 2nd Sat but it had the Vet Day on it's 1st Monday so the weekend behave normally. For 61+ Thor3 would need at least a 40% bump on Sat for 25.5 followed by a mid 30s drop on Sunday. I don't think the Sat bump will cross ~20%.

 

Didn't DR. Strange open on the same date and also had Veteran's day bump .. if we use Dr. Strange figures ...this is looking like 53/54m at best.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Subzero said:

 

Didn't DR. Strange open on the same date and also had Veteran's day bump .. if we use Dr. Strange figures ...this is looking like 53/54m at best.

Yeah DS's 2nd weekend was 2.88x the 2nd Friday. That gives Thor3 about 52.5m but it can do better, especially if the Friday is closer to Dealine's 18.6 (wonder why they are still using that number instead of the studio estimate, Rth also had given 18.5 or 19 I think). But with ~18.2 Fri tough to go above ~54.

[Jonwo]

Murder on the Orient Express will do more OS than Daddy's Home 2 for sure. This sort of film does better during the week than at the weekend and so I think it'll have a nice run.

[Blankments]

@WrathOfHan: Sorry I'm late

 

12x:

 

Justice League: Dunkirk IMAX, Wonder Woman Round 3, Spider-Man: Homecoming Round 2, Detroit, Dunkirk Round 2, It, The Hitman’s Bodyguard, Blade Runner, It Round 2, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, The Snowman

 

11x:

 

Coco: Beauty and the Beast, Beauty and the Beast Round 2, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast 1991, Mulan, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Tangled, The Stray, My Little Pony: The Movie, Brave

 

9x:

 

Daddy’s Home 2: Transformers: The Last Knight, War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, The Big Sick Round 2, Girls Trip, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Flatliners, My Little Pony: The Movie, Geostorm, The Snowman

 

8x:

 

Murder on the Orient Express: Wonder Woman, It Comes At Night, War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, It, Blade Runner 2049, American Made, Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2

 

7x:

 

Ferdinand: The Boss Baby, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Captain Underpants, Cars 3, Despicable Me 3, The Emoji Movie, My Little Pony: The Movie

 

6x:

 

Star Wars: The Last Jedi: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Round 2, Dunkirk IMAX, Thor: Ragnarok. Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

 

5x:

 

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: Free Fire, A Ghost Story, Good Time, Wind River, Battle of the Sexes

Pacific Rim: Uprising: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Geostorm, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Roman J. Israel Esq.: Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, The Snowman, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

 

4x:

 

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle: Spider-Man: Homecoming, Spider-Man: Homecoming Round 2, The LEGO Ninjago Movie, Kingsman: The Golden Circle

Olaf’s Frozen Adventure: The Lion King, Beauty and the Beast 1991, Mulan, Brave

Darkest Hour: Atomic Blonde, Blade Runner 2049, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, The Snowman

Black Panther: The Hitman’s Bodyguard, mother!, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

Downsizing: mother!, Battle of the Sexes, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

 

3x:

 

Death Wish: Detroit, Annabelle: Creation, Terminator 2: Judgment Day 3D

Molly’s Game: Logan Lucky, mother!, American Made

Ready Player One: It, Blade Runner 2049, It Round 2

Wonder: The Glass Castle, The Stray, My Little Pony: The Movie

Annihilation: Blade Runner 2049, Happy Death Day, Blade Runner 2049 Round 2

12 Strong: The Declassified True Story of the Horse Soldiers: Blade Runner 2049 Round 2, Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

 

2x:

 

Deadpool 2: Logan, Logan Round 2

The Shape of Water: War for the Planet of the Apes Round 2, mother!

The Star: The Emoji Movie, My Little Pony: The Movie

Polaroid: Wind River, Happy Death Day

Father Figures: American Made, Happy Death Day

Alpha: Dunkirk Round 2, Geostorm

Tomb Raider: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, Geostorm

Maze Runner: The Death Cure: Happy Death Day, Geostorm

Red Sparrow: Kingsman: The Golden Circle, The Snowman

Den of Thieves: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

The New Mutants: Thor: Ragnarok, Thor: Ragnarok Round 2

 

1x:

 

The Greatest Showman: Despicable Me 3

A Wrinkle in Time: Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets

Call Me by Your Name: Brigsby Bear

Forever My Girl: Megan Leavey

Proud Mary: Girls Trip

The Current War: Wind River

Paddington 2: The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Isle of Dogs: The LEGO Ninjago Movie

The Commuter: American Made

All the Money in the World: American Made

Super Troopers 2: Kingsman: The Golden Circle

The Man Who Invented Christmas: The Stray

Duck Duck Goose: My Little Pony: The Movie

Insidious: The Last Key: Happy Death Day

[YM!]

I’m conflicted on Coco. It’ll either do $145M-$165M or $250M-$275M. Who knows maybe Disney will pull a WB and go all out on Coco this week.

Edited November 12, 2017 by YourMother

[aabattery]

Just now, YourMother said:

I’m conflicted on Coco. It’ll either do $145M-$165M or $250M-$275M. Who knows maybe Disney will pull a WB and go all out on Coco this week.

 

Have you considered the possibility of it going in between those two big-ass ranges?

[YM!]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

Have you considered the possibility of it going in between those two big-ass ranges?

I’m only seeing one or the other.

[cannastop]

It's kind of sad that the Thanksgiving Disney movies can't have a Frozen style run anymore, due to Star Wars now being a December thing.

[YM!]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's kind of sad that the Thanksgiving Disney movies can't have a Frozen style run anymore, due to Star Wars now being a December thing.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Frozen 2 does something like a $150M 5 day but barely gets to or misses $400M due to IX.

[Subzero]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's kind of sad that the Thanksgiving Disney movies can't have a Frozen style run anymore, due to Star Wars now being a December thing.

 

Can you imagine if TLJ has the JL time slot ...it will rule from then til Valentines Day......

[Jonwo]

Just now, Subzero said:

 

Can you imagine if TLJ has the JL time slot ...it will rule from then til Valentines Day......

If The Last Jedi was in November, Justice League would have moved to December or more likely Ready Player One would have stayed put.

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

 

Can you imagine if TLJ has the JL time slot ...it will rule from then til Valentines Day......

But then Justice League would be in December.

[Fancyarcher]

6 hours ago, That One Guy said:

I think this weekend, more than anything, reinforces that Will Ferrell is still a draw, especially to the family crowd.

The House flopped though. People just really liked the first Daddy's Home. 

[Subzero]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

But then Justice League would be in December.

WB might think twice about putting it in December, because TLJ would still be pounding all the way through December ....no one in their right mind would put something like JL in the middle of a 18 Wheeler going downhill without brakes.

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, Fancyarcher said:

The House flopped though. People just really liked the first Daddy's Home. 

Will Ferrell doesn't seem to do well in R rated films anymore although TBH The House looked like a dud from the trailer.

[Jonwo]

Just now, Subzero said:

WB might think twice about putting it in December, because TLJ would still be pounding all the way through December ....no one in their right mind would put something like JL in the middle of a 18 Wheeler going downhill without brakes.

Not really because it would still be a month's gap and it would have made most of the money by then. I wonder had JL been delayed as offered by WB back in May when Zack Snyder had to withdraw from post production and reshoots if they would have simply moved up Ready Player One to November. 

[Fancyarcher]

Just now, Jonwo said:

Will Ferrell doesn't seem to do well in R rated films anymore although TBH The House looked like a dud from the trailer.

He's usually smart with his film choices too. The House apparently was one of those films that was shot over a year ago, and re-edited heavily, so yeah it was kinda doomed from the get-go, still WB did give it a bit of a push, though it wasn't enough. I think Ferrell will probably stick to "safer fare", from now on.