Weekend Thread: Rampage 34.5M, AQP 32.6M, ToD 19M, RPO 11.2M, Blockers 10.2M

[Ledmonkey96]

I think you are overpredicting smallfoot and A star is born.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I think you are overpredicting smallfoot and A star is born.

Damn, and I thought 55M was a little conservative for Smallfoot  

 

A Star Is Born should ride the musical wave. Gaga's album for the movie could be pretty massive.

Edited April 14, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[Arlborn]

Just now, aabattery said:

 

Add in Game Night, 12 Strong, Paddington 2 and 15:17 to Paris.

I can't believe I forgot Paddington(even if it feels like a 2017 release to me)... Thanks!

 

 

RPO - 140

Rampage - 80(?)

Tomb Raider -  55

Ocean's 8 - 150

Aquaman - 250

The Meg - 80(?)

Fantastic Beasts - 250

Life of the Party - 80

Teen Titans Go! To The Movies - 80(?)

Paddington 2 - 40

Game Night - 75

12 Strong - 45

15:17 - 36

 

 

1.36B. Yup, very doable when you add Smallfoot, The Nun, Crazy Rich Asians, Tag, A Star is Born and Mowgli.

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Where I think WB ends up this year (rounded):

 

Paddington: 40M

12 Strong: 45M

15:17 to Paris: 35M

Game Night: 70M

Tomb Raider: 55M

Ready Player One: 130M

Rampage: 55M

Life of the Party: 50M

Ocean's 8: 135M

Tag: 85M

Teen Titans Go!: 40M

The Meg: 65M

Crazy Rich Asians: 30M
The Nun: 115M

Smallfoot: 50M

A Star Is Born: 110M

Mowgli: 30M

Fantastic Beasts: 210M

Aquaman: 200M

Total: 1.55B

 

Unless a few of these movies underperform alot, they should be over 1.5B again

 

Agreed, for the most part. O8 and The Nun would be easy wins on those DOM grosses alone. FB would definitely be profitable with that DOM once OS is added in. Hard to get an idea on the budgets of stuff like I Feel Pretty, Tag, and Crazy Rich Asians (I'd hope below $50m for all). But all the rest would likely need huge OS performances to not be breakevens at best with those DOM grosses. 

[Eric Prime]

50 minutes ago, aabattery said:

WB is doing fine. Don't really get the doom and gloom some people always seem to have about them.

Especially considering their 2019 lineup looks pretty dang good at the moment. Lego, Godzilla, Shazam, It 2, Wonder Woman.

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

Agreed, for the most part. O8 and The Nun would be easy wins on those DOM grosses alone. FB would definitely be profitable with that DOM once OS is added in. Hard to get an idea on the budgets of stuff like I Feel Pretty, Tag, and Crazy Rich Asians (I'd hope below $50m for all). But all the rest would likely need huge OS performances to not be breakevens at best with those DOM grosses. 

Since when did WB buy STX?  I'm guessing you mean Life of the Party; The Boss numbers are the absolute roof on that one.

[WrathOfHan]

By the way, buzz for I Feel Pretty seems a lot lower than Snatched. If I wasn't getting ads on YouTube for it, I would've had no idea it was coming out next week. The lack of reviews doesn't inspire confidence either.

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

A Star Is Born should ride the musical wave. Gaga's album for the movie could be pretty massive.

Would be funny if A Star is Born beat Venom at the box office when they open on the same weekend.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

By the way, buzz for I Feel Pretty seems a lot lower than Snatched. If I wasn't getting ads on YouTube for it, I would've had no idea it was coming out next week. The lack of reviews doesn't inspire confidence either.

I think it's gonna settle for about $13M tbh. A Quiet Place will easily lead the calm before Thanos' storm the next weekend.

Edited April 14, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

SGT. STUBBY: AN AMERICAN HERO (2018)

 

 

3x incoming??????

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Since when did WB buy STX?  I'm guessing you mean Life of the Party; The Boss numbers are the absolute roof on that one.

Lmao, yeah that's what I meant. If it has a similar budget as The Boss with a similar DOM and OS performance, again we'd probably be looking at breakeven territory. 

 

It wouldn't surprise me at all if O8 is the first movie of the year WB sees a true profit on. Before anyone attacks me to say none of us know for sure if a movie is profitable until we get actual reports, I'm well aware of that. I'm just basing it on general box office rules of thumb here. 

Edited April 14, 2018 by MovieMan89

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

I think it's gonna settle for about $13M tbh. A Quiet Place will easily lead the calm before Thanos' storm the next weekend.

I'm hoping it hits at least 15M just so the box office on May 4 isn't as pathetic as it could be  

[WrathOfHan]

RAMPAGE (2018)

 

WOM is generally good between this and the RT audience score. Let's see how well it can hold next week before the Infinity War massacre.

Edited April 14, 2018 by WrathOfHan

[XO21]

I Feel Pretty is doomed only because STX is distributing it..if it wasn't maybeee it could been saved by older female demo.

[MovieMan89]

11 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Especially considering their 2019 lineup looks pretty dang good at the moment. Lego, Godzilla, Shazam, It 2, Wonder Woman.

IT 2 and Wonder Woman 2 are guaranteed monster profits for them, so that alone definitely puts them in a much better spot than this year. Godzilla and Shazam are very much up in the air, due to the bad reception of its predecessor for the former and the bad state of its franchise on the whole for the latter. Both have definite potential to turn things around though with effective marketing and a film that delivers. LEGO I could actually see being a huge meltdown inducing box office disappointment around here, akin to HTTYD2. The franchise already feels played out, even though this is the first mainline sequel. 

[YM!]

59 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

they've just unleashed 3 consecutive big budget franchise starters that are failures to launch in a little over the span of a month. They are not "fine" right now.

TR and Rampage will break even and RPO is looking at $580M-$600M WW.

[YM!]

Just now, MovieMan89 said:

LEGO I could actually see being a huge meltdown inducing box office disappointment around here, akin to HTTYD2.

Nah, we had that with LEGO Batman already. But I do think it won’t do too much sadly, around Kung Fu Panda 3 ($142M) to LEGO Batman ($175M), $200M can happen but then again Batman and Ninjago hurt it.

 

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Godzilla and Shazam are very much up in the air, due to the bad reception of its predecessor for the former and the bad state of its franchise on the whole for the latter. Both have definite potential to turn things around though with effective marketing and a film that delivers.

I think Shazam might breakout, it’s like Big but with superheroes. I think it’ll do fine. Godzilla 2 will do okay.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, XO21 said:

I Feel Pretty is doomed only because STX is distributing it..if it wasn't maybeee it could been saved by older female demo.

They did score a hit with females with Bad Moms (and its sequel held on well enough) and Molly's Game did fine but yeah, buzz has been rather quiet.

[dxmatrixdt]

Rotten Tomatoes   

Rampage - 50% critics, 79% audience

Isle of Dogs - 91% critics, 88% audience

Sgt. Stubby - 90% critics, 97% audience

Beirut - 78% critics, 41% audience

Borg vs. McEnroe - 82% critics, 72% audience

Truth or Dare - 16% critics, 36% audience

[Arlborn]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

RAMPAGE (2018)

 

WOM is generally good between this and the RT audience score. Let's see how well it can hold next week before the Infinity War massacre.

 

I see Kings and Disobedience will be released that weekend as well. Probably dumps, the both of them, which is a shame since I thought Disobedience looked interesting and I really like both Rachels.

 

Anyway, I'm curious to see what they will make and how wide they are going. Not much for both counts is my guess.