Tuesday's Numbers

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

2 hours ago, LonePirate said:

BP is going to need a push by Disney, perhaps with I2, in order to reach $700M as it has fallen spectacularly since the home video release. It will need 24 more days just like yesterday in order to make to to $700M, which is a tall order given its recent weekly drops. It has been playing for a couple of weeks at the discount theater nearest to me and I suspect that’s the case in many other locations. 

 

I am sure Disney will push it over, though. I just don’t think it has enough gas on its own to get there.

 

2 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

I think the only issue is that Disney seems more focused on pushing A Wrinkle in Time to $100 million right now. Looking at the effect of double features with Solo on its OW, it got the biggest bump that week with +44%. BP dropped 44% instead that weekend, suggesting it did not get much (if any) of a bump from double features. I suspect the same will happen when I2 opens, as it's looking like AWiT will need an extremely large push to reach $100 million at its current pace.

 

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

WiT also makes far more sense to use as doubles with I2 to be fair. BP really isn't a kid's movie at all. So yeah, not expecting BP to be getting any double feature treatments. Disney will just have to outright push for a big expansion soon or 700 is likely not happening. 

 

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Also, if Disney needs to set their sights on pushing Solo to 200 soon, then BP will really fall by the wayside. There is no benefit to them for 700 opposed to 100 or 200 when it comes to TV deals. That's what they'll care about. 

You ppl are so fucking dramatic, my goodness!!!

 

1. As of Wednesday, BP is now less than $800K away from hitting $700M

 

2. Disney is not worrying about pushing BP because they KNOW it will reach $700M before it ends its theater run.

 

3. Remember, BP has not had its dollar theater expansion, something AWIT already had. And with its expansion on May 11, AWIT has added almost $2M more to its overall domestic gross.

 

4.You all know BP will gross over $700M before it finishes playing on theaters, why are you guys being so damn extra?!

 

BP will hit $700M domestic, AIW will hit $2B worldwide. Disney wins!!!

[sfran43]

 

Per pro.boxoffice...

Ocean’s 8	Warner Bros.	$41,000,000	$41,000,000	NEW
Solo: A Star Wars Story	Disney / Lucasfilm	$14,700,000	$175,600,000	-50%
Deadpool 2	Fox	$12,500,000	$277,300,000	-46%
Hereditary	A24	$9,600,000	$9,600,000	NEW
Avengers: Infinity War	Disney / Marvel	$6,800,000	$654,700,000	-35%
Adrift	STX	$5,400,000	$22,100,000	-54%
Book Club	Paramount	$5,300,000	$58,000,000	-24%
Hotel Artemis	Global Road	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	NEW
Upgrade	BH Tilt	$2,300,000	$9,400,000	-51%
Life of the Party	Warner Bros. / New Line	$1,600,000	$49,700,000	-54%

[LonePirate]

10 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

3. Remember, BP has not had its dollar theater expansion, something AWIT already had. And with its expansion on May 11, AWIT has added almost $2M more to its overall domestic gross.

For long running hits, the discount theater expansion does not usually happen all at once. Instead, it happens over several weeks on a market by market basis. Here's a short list of discount theaters already playing BP with showtimes for today:

 

Picture Show at Merchant's Exchange - Atlanta

Cinemark Hollywood USA - Dallas

Regency Valley Plaza 6 - Los Angeles

Super Savers Cinemas 8 - Phoenix

Landmark Crest Cinema Centre - Seattle

 

It made just under $250K this past weekend after another drop over 40%+. At that burn rate, it does not have enough momentum without a slight push or accounting correction from Disney. It will undoubtedly receive one. The question is when.

 

[ZeeSoh]

Looking at the recent MCU movies, almost none of them had a big expansions. They all had small expansions limited to 50-100 theatres at most and even then most of it usually around long holiday weekends. 

 

However looking at MCU movies in the past 1-2 years, most of them easily made a million or so from around the same place where BP is right now with either no or a very small expansion. 

 

Guardians 2, Ragnarok, SMH, Civil War and more all made 800k to 1m+ from around the weekend when their grosses were in the 200k range with a similar number of theatres as BP. Some of them had a small expansion of 50-100 theatres which helped. So even if BP cannot get there on its own, all it would require of Disney is to give it a very small push maybe around the 4th of July holiday. 

 

[sfran43]

Weekend Predictions
June 8 - June 10, 2018

Predictions for this weekend's top 10 films at the domestic box office.

Published on June 6, 2018 at 7:45PM Pacific By Daniel Garris

 

	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Ocean's 8 (Warner Bros.)	$39.0 M	$39.0 M	NEW	1
2	Solo: A Star Wars Story (Disney)	$14.3 M	$175.2 M	-51%	3
3	Deadpool 2 (Fox)	$13.5 M	$278.5 M	-42%	4
4	Hereditary (A24)	$10.0 M	$10.0 M	NEW	1
5	Avengers: Infinity War (Disney)	$6.9 M	$654.8 M	-34%	7
6	Adrift (STXfilms)	$5.9 M	$22.7 M	-49%	2
7	Book Club (Paramount)	$4.9 M	$57.8 M	-30%	4
8	Hotel Artemis (Global Road)	$4.7 M	$4.7 M	NEW	1
9	Upgrade (OTL Releasing / BH Tilt)	$2.3 M	$9.2 M	-51%	2
10	Life of the Party (Warner / New Line)	$2.0 M	$50.3 M	-43%	5

[baumer]

I think he's got oceans 8 much too low. I think it's going to surprise and go over 50 million for the weekend.

[L Silverman]

I see Oceans 8 meeting or coming in a little under projections, $35m-$40m.  Reviews have been only average and I just don't see a lot of demand for this movie.  There's been a glut of chick flicks so far this summer, Overboard, Breaking In, Life of the Party and Book Club, so I don't see any pent-up demand for another female-centric movie.

[LonePirate]

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

I think he's got oceans 8 much too low. I think it's going to surprise and go over 50 million for the weekend.

The Girls Night Out Dolby showing near me went from 40% sold to 60% sold due to walk-up business. That's pretty impressive for a showing/event that was lightly publicized. I think there is some demand for the film which tracking is not identifying.. As such, I have a lot of faith in your prediction.

[DAJK]

I live in a town that's big with retirees. Lots of old people. So naturally, I was shocked when our film bookers didn't send us Book club right away. I thought the film would have done well here, but they sent it to the theatre the next town over, and we did not play it at all for the first 2 weeks of its run, which I thought would hurt the movie given many seniors aren't super against driving 40 minutes to see a movie they really want to. 

 

Then we got it this past Friday. Going in Style opened to our equivalent of around 26-28M can't remember the exact number right now. And played for 4 weeks here until there wasn't any screen space left for it, finishing with our equivalent of around 110M. And so I thought Book Club would play somewhat similar to that film, maybe a little less given we got it late, and are only supposed to keep it for 2 weeks as we desperately need the screens for Incredibles. 

 

Then the movie surprised me and did our equivalent of 30M for the weekend here. But it grew every single day. Friday was 5.6M, Saturday was 11.5M and Sunday was a whopping 12.9M. Not only that, but it I think broke a record from what I can see here, for weekday numbers given its weekend performance. Seriously, the movie has sold out multiple shows Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday and did an insane 40M over those 3 days alone. Now, I don't know if this means the movie will be crazy next week too, or if all the old people have already seen the movie and it will drop like a rock next week. But if it keeps up like this, we may want to keep it longer than we initially planned. 

[DAJK]

Also, I shouldn't neglect how well Adrift has done at my theatre. Is at 39.1M as of the end of Wednesday night here. 

 

And this doesn't come down to me needing to revise my system. No, Solo has pretty much played neck and neck with its actual performance here, with a slightly lower opening weekend, stronger second weekend and stronger Tuesdays. It's at our equivalent of 161M as of tonight. 

[a2k]

I doubt Solo crosses 14.5 this weekend or DP2 goes below 13.5. They should be separated by 1m at most. When I2 opens Solo will take a giant hit being more kids friendly and loosing premium screens. Probably 60%+ while DP2 shouldn't fall that bad. Fox's Spy fell 28% when IO opened to 90 (with JW at 107). DP2 won't hold that well but sub-45% drop against I2 won't surprise me.

Edited June 7, 2018 by A2k Rex

[baumer]

27 minutes ago, L Silverman said:

I see Oceans 8 meeting or coming in a little under projections, $35m-$40m.  Reviews have been only average and I just don't see a lot of demand for this movie.  There's been a glut of chick flicks so far this summer, Overboard, Breaking In, Life of the Party and Book Club, so I don't see any pent-up demand for another female-centric movie.

 

All due respect to Legends like Jane Fonda and Diane Keaton and young up-and-comers like Shailene Woodley but I don't think they have the star power of a Sandra Bullock film with Cate Blanchett and Anne Hathaway that has the name and pedigree of an Ocean's movie. You might think there's no demand for this but it's got a lot of interest in my opinion because of the cast and because of the name and to me this has breakout Blockbuster written all over it.

[L Silverman]

12 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

All due respect to Legends like Jane Fonda and Diane Keaton and young up-and-comers like Shailene Woodley but I don't think they have the star power of a Sandra Bullock film with Cate Blanchett and Anne Hathaway that has the name and pedigree of an Ocean's movie. You might think there's no demand for this but it's got a lot of interest in my opinion because of the cast and because of the name and to me this has breakout Blockbuster written all over it.

 

Fair enough.  I guess we'll know in a couple days. :)

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 hours ago, sfran43 said:

 

Per pro.boxoffice...

Ocean’s 8	Warner Bros.	$41,000,000	$41,000,000	NEW
Solo: A Star Wars Story	Disney / Lucasfilm	$14,700,000	$175,600,000	-50%
Deadpool 2	Fox	$12,500,000	$277,300,000	-46%
Hereditary	A24	$9,600,000	$9,600,000	NEW
Avengers: Infinity War	Disney / Marvel	$6,800,000	$654,700,000	-35%
Adrift	STX	$5,400,000	$22,100,000	-54%
Book Club	Paramount	$5,300,000	$58,000,000	-24%
Hotel Artemis	Global Road	$2,500,000	$2,500,000	NEW
Upgrade	BH Tilt	$2,300,000	$9,400,000	-51%
Life of the Party	Warner Bros. / New Line	$1,600,000	$49,700,000	-54%

A24 biggest opening beating The VVitch

will cinemascore be better?

[dxmatrixdt]

if Wednesday = Monday

 

Solo (-25.6%) - 2.96 - 158.90

Deadpool (-22.3%) - 2.65 - 263.21

Adrift (-31.5%) - 1.23 - 15.86

IW (-25.2%) - 1.16 - 646.89

Book (-34.6%) - 1.09 - 51.40

Upgrade (-17.1%) - 0.60 - 6.60

Party (-35.2%) - 0.42 - 47.83

Breaking (-29.6%) - 0.32 - 42.45

Action (-26.6%) - 0.30 - 3.39

Overboard (-33.5%) - 0.22 - 46.26

AQP (-18.0%) - 0.24 - 184.29

Dogs (-31.2%) - 0.22 - 15.36

Rampage (-32.6%) - 73k - 95.37

Pretty (-28.9%) - 37k - 48.45

RP1 (-17.1%) - 34k - 136.17

BP (-10.4%) - 30k - 699.19

Wrinkle (-24%) - 20k - 98.01

 

[dxmatrixdt]

^^ rounding some of the above numbers...

- IW could do 1.11 Thursday - 648.00.  7.0M (-33%) 7th WKND, 655M TOTAL.

- Book Club another 1.10 Thursday - 52.50.  3.50M (-50%) 4th WKD, 56.0 TOTAL

- Upgrade + 0.50 / 7.10.  10M likely before BH-Tilt looks at what theaters to keep

- Adrift + 1.14 / 16.00. 

- RP1 +0.03 / 136.20

- BP + 0.03 / 699.22

- Pretty + 0.03 / 48.48

- Wrinkle + 0.02 / 98.03