Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 | July 12 2023 | 99% on Rotten Tomatoes! | 290M budget so far, Cruise holding Paramount hostage for more money

[Austin]

2 hours ago, John Marston said:

Um, shouldn’t they have known Oppenheimer was scheduled one week after and was set to take all the large screens away from the beginning?

Yes and Paramount is beyond stupid for it.

[Ryan Reynolds]

3 hours ago, Bob Train said:

If Disney has already locked in screens for Indiana Jones' second weekend, couldn't they move MI up to a Monday opening instead of Wednesday? Do a 7 day opening weekend?

 

Spider-Man: Far From Home did a 6 day opening weekend so it's not unprecedented.

Tenet did that with previews starting Monday at select theaters, before going wide on weekend

[keysersoze123]

Tenet opened when NY and CA and many other markets were closed. It was the 1st big budget release as we had a chicken and egg problem for theaters to open. 

 

Ideally MI would thrive next year when many blockbusters would move due to the strike. But this movie has already been delayed so many times that studio will not want to add to the costs anymore. So it will have to survive this period and gross as much as possible. Overseas this will be the biggest movie of the summer. 

[Boxx93]

13 hours ago, Claudio said:

 

 

I wish Universal would push Oppenheimer to August or a more prestigious month like October. I want to see all of the big movies in July but movie tickets got really expensive where I live and I just can't support 3 movies back to back to back. (MI7, Barbie and Opp.)

Edited June 3, 2023 by Boxx93

[Maggie]

16 hours ago, Austin said:

Yes and Paramount is beyond stupid for it.

Paramount really fuck*d up the release dates this year. While no one expects Transformers to do some great numbers, it still has an impossibly bad release date. Same with Dungeons and Dragons. MI:DR will disappoint because of the release date and the marketing is bad too.

[Austin]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Paramount really fuck*d up the release dates this year. While no one expects Transformers to do some great numbers, it still has an impossibly bad release date. Same with Dungeons and Dragons. MI:DR will disappoint because of the release date and the marketing is bad too.

I would agree with everything but that last part. They released two good trailers and we haven't even gotten to the point where they are making a marketing push for the film yet.

[Maggie]

So according to the Box office Buzz thread Oppenheimer is poised to do more than 50M OW. Coupled with Barbie, at least 70M, i expect MI:DR to drop like a rock second weekend. I should make an UNDER Fallout total club.

[Austin]

9 minutes ago, Maggie said:

So according to the Box office Buzz thread Oppenheimer is poised to do more than 50M OW. Coupled with Barbie, at least 70M, i expect MI:DR to drop like a rock second weekend. I should make an UNDER Fallout total club.

DOM or WW?

 

Also I think they will all coexist kindly as no other releases will have any significant holdover except maybe Indy 5 but I highly doubt it. Also none of them are direct competitors in terms of genre.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Austin

[Maggie]

Just now, Austin said:

DOM or WW?

 

Also I think they will all coexist kindly as no other releases will have any significant holdover except maybe Indy 5 but I highly doubt it. Also none of then are direct competitors in terms of genre.

DOM and possibly WW too since it won't have Russia and in China will probably do about half of Fallout if it's released

 

Oppenheimer is a direct competitor going after the old guys

[emoviefan]

Water is wet, The sky is blue and Maggie concern trolling a Tom Cruise movie. First time commenter long time reader of this forum  

[Austin]

46 minutes ago, Maggie said:

DOM and possibly WW too since it won't have Russia and in China will probably do about half of Fallout if it's released

 

Oppenheimer is a direct competitor going after the old guys

I've seen multiple people on BOT say MI7 will be the biggest Hollywood film in China if it gets released there which it should. Oppenheimer is not a direct competitor though, as one is action and the other is drama/thriller. Also keep in mind Oppenheimer is rated R.

Edited June 3, 2023 by Austin

[Ryan Reynolds]

5 hours ago, Maggie said:

So according to the Box office Buzz thread Oppenheimer is poised to do more than 50M OW. Coupled with Barbie, at least 70M, i expect MI:DR to drop like a rock second weekend. I should make an UNDER Fallout total club.

do under MI3 adjusted for inflation 186.9 m domestic 🙂 , its gonna get crushed after opening at least decent

[GOGODanca]

No need to doom post, yeah losing PLFs will hurt the 2nd weekend but it will stabilize after that and have late summer to leg,  out, even a complete turd like thor l&t had solid legs after a 2nd weekend collapse and this movie should be leagues better

[HesAPooka]

I don't see the allure of Oppenheimer. I know it's Nolan but it just doesn't scream must watch summer viewing. Looks like something hardcore fans will check out but casuals will avoid.

[Austin]

Just now, HesAPooka said:

I don't see the allure of Oppenheimer. I know it's Nolan but it just doesn't scream must watch summer viewing. Looks like something hardcore fans will check out but casuals will avoid.

With that R rating for specific adult themes I can see the appeal 😏.

[HesAPooka]

10 minutes ago, Austin said:

With that R rating for specific adult themes I can see the appeal 😏.

 

The casual crowd don't care about a films rating. Again that's something only people online or hardcore fans care about. Older people will have seen Fatman and Little boy or at least remember it. Oppenheimer will gross 450-575 most of which will be in the US. I don't see it as a threat to Mission.

 

Missions biggest threat is in my opinion two trailers that feel kind of flat. There's no sense of danger or urgency like previous entries and the big stunt won't be a draw this time around. I'm sure the movie will do well enough but I just don't see much hype for it. Initially I thought this would do 900m+ but now I'm thinking more like 700-800m unless Domestically surprises because of the Maverick effect. Who knows maybe paramount will crank of the marketing and things will change.

Edited June 4, 2023 by HesAPooka

[Bob Train]

If the demand is there (and trust me, it will be), then losing PLFs will have a limited effect. Top Gun 2 had a good drop when it lost PLFs to Dominion and even after losing more screens to Thor 4, Lightyear, and Minions 2 the holds were still good. This will probably make half of Top Gun domestically and it would still make a billion because it's huge in Korea, Japan, India, and does well in Europe and China.

[Bob Train]

Why would Paramount kick the marketing into high gear 6 weeks before a film releases, and when they have another film coming out next week? Did Universal market Fast X very heavily the weekend Mario came out, because that was 6 weeks before Fast X came out? No they didn't. Marketing is rarely heavy this far out.

[Austin]

1 hour ago, HesAPooka said:

 

The casual crowd don't care about a films rating. Again that's something only people online or hardcore fans care about. Older people will have seen Fatman and Little boy or at least remember it. Oppenheimer will gross 450-575 most of which will be in the US. I don't see it as a threat to Mission.

 

Missions biggest threat is in my opinion two trailers that feel kind of flat. There's no sense of danger or urgency like previous entries and the big stunt won't be a draw this time around. I'm sure the movie will do well enough but I just don't see much hype for it. Initially I thought this would do 900m+ but now I'm thinking more like 700-800m unless Domestically surprises because of the Maverick effect. Who knows maybe paramount will crank of the marketing and things will change.

I was making a joke about the rating based off sexuality and nudity in the film, but go off ig.

 

But to one of your points about the trailers I disagree and would say the first trailer got good buzz around the stunt and thought that was a fantastic trailer in its own right. The new one kinda underwhelmed but I rewatched it a couple times (cause imma stan) and it kinda grew on me.

 

The one issue I do have with the marketing is that the freaking late night shows being cancelled with the writers' strike going on. Cruise would go on at least one of them and talk about the stunts and everything and get people jazzed up but rn those aren't even airing because of the strike which will F up some of the marketing. WOM will be a big "marketing" campaign for this movie. Kinda what Warner is trying to accomplish with The Flash but hopefully not look as desperate in execution.

[Austin]

55 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Why would Paramount kick the marketing into high gear 6 weeks before a film releases, and when they have another film coming out next week? Did Universal market Fast X very heavily the weekend Mario came out, because that was 6 weeks before Fast X came out? No they didn't. Marketing is rarely heavy this far out.

Only if you are Warner Bros and have an Ezra Miller situation.