Battle for the Throne: What will be the #1 Film of 2020?

[The Panda]

2019 is pretty much set on what’s winning the year (both WW and DOM), barring an unprecedented breakout from either TLK, TROS or something else.  But what does seem wide open is the crown for 2020, there’s really no clear frontrunner.

 

Whats different about this year is all of the top contenders would be C or B Tier contenders at best in 2019, at least on paper.  This gives a lot of room for a surprise to take place.

 

Let’s break down the competitors

 

S Tier (Strongest Chances)

Mulan

It may seem like an odd choice to place here, but that trailer was fairly huge.  This seems like it could be a threat DOM, but the real reason I’m ranking it here is the potential to break out in China.  If this hits around 1.2B WW, that may be enough to win the year, given the competition.

 

Wonder Woman 1984

This is really the biggest brand movie coming out in 2019, minus Fast 9 which has diminishing returns potential.  Wonder Woman seems like the clear favorite to me to win the DOM crown, which is why I’m placing it here.  WW is what would be more tough, given Fast 9 and Mulan (maybe even Bond 25) look like stronger contenders there.

 

Fast and Furious 9

F8 saw a pretty hefty drop from 7, but international numbers still held strong, which is what’s keeping this one as a solid frontrunner for the WW crown.  The trick will be how Hobbs + Shaw effects the demand for another fast movie, we could see quick diminishing returns as we did with Transformers.  

 

A Tier

James Bond 25

Im not sure this is a threat to win DOM, but looking at Skyfall’s performance and considering it’ll be the return of Bond after 5 years, this could hit strong enough to take the WW crown.

 

Soul

Pete Docter has a fantastic track record BO wise for Pixar, and an Inside Out level hit could be more than enough to take the Domestic crown (maybe even WW if it becomes larger).

 

The Eternals

It’s hard to gauge how strong of a competitor this one will be, but given the popularity of Guardians and Ragnarok you can’t help but think a similarly style Marvel flick has potential to be a major threat.

 

B Tier

Black Widow

It may seem wrong to “doubt” Marvel, but I’m being generous by saying Widow is even a B-Tier competitor.  Far From Home is the Endgame followup, and this one is likely to be a prequel (making it even less of a threat).  It’s pretty much solely because of Marvel’s hot streak and the solid release date that I think it’s in this mid tier of contenders.

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru

Despicable Me 3, despite falling by a hefty amount DOM, was still formidable WW.  The problem here is if that trend continues, the chances of winning the DOM crown are small, and if it falls under 1B WW that could kill its WW chances.

 

Tenet

Christopher Nolan’s last two outings didn’t turn out to be contenders at all.  But, with the prime summer release date and the potential of it being a more tentpole-esque release than Dunkirk you can’t count Nolan out of the race.

 

Dragon Empire

Disney’s animation for the year.  It’s hard to gauge its potential with no material as of yet, but with an East Asian type of setting, the potential is there for a massive breakout in China.  Follow that with a solid showing DOM and INT, and it could be a 1B+ grosser, which is around what’s needed to win WW.

 

C Tier

Birds of Prey

I wouldn’t consider this one likely, but depending on how low the other competitors land, a Deadpool size breakout from this could land it the Domestic crown of movies are performing 2014-esque

 

Onward

Id place this higher, except it has strong internal competition coming from Soul (which seems like the film Pixar has more confidence in given it’s getting the prime spot).  But a Zootopia like breakout for this could land it close to the top.

 

Venom 2

The first one was a major breakout, which leaves room for improvement from the sequel.  I’m doubtful it’s good enough to outcompete all of the movies above, but it’s not impossible.

 

Dune

Maybe I’m putting this one on here more out of hope than practicality.  It has a solid holiday release, is based off a popular sci-if novel, and is being helmed by a talented auteur.  Maybe it could turn into the new decades LOTR?

 

D Tier

Godzilla vs Kong

Given how Godzilla and Kong performed, there’s not much indication that this could breakout to such an extent to steal the crown DOM or WW.

 

In the Heights

I thought this one was worth a mention as a potential breakout.  The chances of it winning the year?  Not great, but it’s a musical from Lin Manuel, wouldn’t want to doubt him.

 

Vivo

Another Lin-Manuel musical, only this one is animated.  I’d expect more of a Moana performance though if this breaks out, which wouldn’t be strong enough to win the year.

 

F Tier

Sonic the Hedgehog

Just pointing out that it has no chance, despite the memes

 

West Side Story

This is one that looks like Disney/Fox is putting hope in being huge, but im not sure it has potential to gross anymore than other big name musicals like Mary Poppins Returns

 

Everything Else

Edited July 9, 2019 by The Panda

[RealLyre]

domestically is WW84 100%

 

WW is either Black Widow or WW84

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

domestically is WW84 100%

 

WW is either Black Widow or WW84

Lol WW1984 does not have a 100% chance of winning DOM

[Guest]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

domestically is Mulan 100%

 

WW is either Eternals or Mulan

 

[Alli]

Just now, The Panda said:

Lol WW1984 does not have a 100% chance of winning DOM

how so? what movie has a chance of doing 400M +

[filmlover]

Wonder Woman 1984.

[The Panda]

1 minute ago, Alli said:

how so? what movie has a chance of doing 400M +

100% is for an event that will always happen, even Endgame winning the year isn’t technically 100% yet (even if I’d agree it has it nearly locked down).

 

There’s plenty of movies on there with breakout potential to pass 400m.  There’s also the chance WW1984 drops to around mid-300m range

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, The Panda said:

100% is for an event that will always happen, even Endgame winning the year isn’t technically 100% yet (even if I’d agree it has it nearly locked down).

 

There’s plenty of movies on there with breakout potential to pass 400m.  There’s also the chance WW1984 drops to around mid-300m range

what if I told you WW84 can make 300M DOM and still win the year?

Edited July 9, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[Alli]

two things i'm sure of next year: Trump losing the election and WW1984 making 400M+

[The Panda]

Just now, RealLyre said:

what if I told you WW84 can make 300M DOM and still win the year?

Yes it can, and so could other movies, which means it’s not a guarantee lol.

[filmlover]

Just now, Alli said:

two things i'm sure of next year: Trump losing the election and WW1984 making 400M+

Keep your jinx hijinks to movies only, please and thank you.

[Deja23]

DOM: WW 1984

WW: FF9

[Eric 2099]

Wonder Woman making less than 400M isn't as crazy as you guys might think. For every Dead Man's Chest, there's a Deadpool 2.

[Alli]

WW1984    worldwide too. It has room to improve internationally. FF9 -the only direction is down

[The Panda]

Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Wonder Woman making less than 400M isn't as crazy as you guys might think. For every Dead Man's Chest, there's a Deadpool 2.

You could even compare it to Spider-Man 2, which dropped from Spider-Man under 400m.

 

I think WW1984 is a weak DOM frontrunner at best

[Menor Reborn]

I think y'all may be sleeping on black widow a bit. It'll have been the first MCU film in a while and the character is very popular, imo it should be in the A tier. I think Mulan will win WW, not sure about DOM 

[Geo1500]

DOM: WW84

 

WW: Mulan

[RealLyre]

4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Yes it can, and so could other movies, which means it’s not a guarantee lol.

it's not a guarantee that it wouldn't win the year either so it's not not 100%.

[The Panda]

15 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's not a guarantee that it wouldn't win the year either so it's not not 100%.

Yeah, obviously.  That’s what I was saying

[xiazhi]

mulan's trailer views is on the level with batb. I'm confident in it.