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eddyxx

The Fantastic Four - First Steps | Marvel Studios | July 25, 2025 | Matt Shakman directs

By eddyxx, in Box Office Discussion

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Ryan C Sleeper Hit

Ryan C

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I don't know if you were reading the same comments as I was, but Deadpool 3 was not underpredicted at all. The general sentiment, from the moment Hugh's return was announced was that the movie would at the very least open big. The main points of contention were the staying power and the probability of reaching the billion dollar mark, which were impossible to truly tell until the movie actually opened and audience reaction metrics came in.

 

This movie, on the other hand, is a big risk and wildcard. The Fantastic Four name has been poisoned cinematically for decades because of three poorly received movies in a row from Fox, which didn't understand the property and thus squandered it to hell and back. That damage builds up, as we've seen a lot last year and most recently with Transformers One, which got crushed by Bay's stench when it opened last weekend. So this movie has a pretty real chance of falling flat on its face because of casual audiences not being able to let go of the bitter taste of the previous movies and rejecting the new, proper Marvel version unseen. And that's not even getting into Marvel's decline itself.

 

On a related note, all three major July tentpoles for next year are hailing from tarnished/poisoned brands. I think that's pretty funny. It'll definitely be an interesting summer to see unfold for sure.

 

Honestly, I don't think Transformers would be the best comparison for Fantastic Four. 

 

That franchise was absolutely hurt by bad reception to multiple movies, but it also fell off because of oversaturation. 5 Transformers movies were released between 2007-2017 and immediately after that, Bumblebee came out in 2018. Bad reception hurts, but when you oversatuate the market with multiple bad movies in a row (and not in a very short timeframe) it really hurts. Also, I think Transformers One disappointing last weekend has more to it (poor marketing, competition, etc.) than just the stench of Michael Bay. If that stench was truly a factor, then why did Transformers: Rise of the Beasts open to $61M (fairly close to The Last Knight's five-day opening) the year before. 

 

On the other hand, by the time The Fantastic Four: First Steps comes out, there wouldn't have been a Fantasic Four movie since 2015 (10 years!). That's a lot of time to let the stench of the other F4 movies to wash off. Also, I think audiences (especially now) are smart enough to know that this version of the Fantastic Four will take place in the MCU and isn't connected to any of the prior movies.

 

Still, what you brought up about the Marvel brand being tarnished and Fantastic Four as a franchise being hurt by multiple bad movies is not something to ignore. Though for me, I think the movie is going to overcome those issues. Not because Marvel is bulletproof, but because of the actual quality of the movie and how Disney markets it. If it's genuinely good and it's marketed in a way that has people's attention, then I think people are gonna be far more inclined to watch it. I'm not saying it's easy and I also am not expecting this to make over $1B, but I'm still holding out hope that Marvel can pull this off. 

 

P.S. I know most of us expected Deadpool and Wolverine to be a hit, but I also saw people who said that Hugh Jackman's return didn't mean much to general audiences and that it would barely move the needle on D&W (even after the trailer came out). It's not everybody, but there definitely were people underpredicting Deadpool and Wolverine. 

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toutvabien Sleeper Hit

toutvabien

Posted
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28 minutes ago, Warmaster506 said:

Teaser with Moana 2??

I think we're getting a new trailer for Elio, which has more cross-over. Doubt we get any trailers for this before the new year.

 

Question is, do they wait until Venom for a full trailer for Captain America?

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WittyUsername Global Phenomenon

WittyUsername

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Is this really the final release date?

We don’t know. Some people seem to think it would be impossible to get the movie ready in time, but I honestly doubt that. If D&W managed to be ready for July, I think this could too.  Assuming it gets pushed back again, it would be because Blade obviously isn’t making it to November, so Disney might want something else to fill the spot. 

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WittyUsername Global Phenomenon

WittyUsername

Posted
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14 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

D&W was shooting up until January... not saying this is great for those involved with post-production, but there's not much to suggest they can't make 7/25.

They apparently did a lot of previs work ahead of filming, so that should make things easier. 

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Spidey Freak Global Phenomenon

Spidey Freak

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On 9/26/2024 at 3:31 PM, Mad Max007 said:

I still predict this will be the DP and W of next year. Way too under predicted and when it makes the money people will act like it was always going to!

 

Except that normal ppl knew DP&W would be massive as soon as Jackman was announced. It was only the suckers drinking the MCU haterade refusing to see facts.

 

F4 otoh does have a troubled history as a franchise on the big screen (and in comics too). Honestly it could go either way. The biggest wildcard in a year where almost all CBM performances are going to be unpredictable and dependent on marketing.

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

Posted
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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

The teaser will most definitely be with CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD. They will have shot enough material for a teaser by that time.

I think they might enough for a trailer right now (dirty little secret; they often delibertly schedule shooitng scenes to have enough trailer material ready early on) but November is just too early for a trailer anyway.

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

Posted
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1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I think they might enough for a trailer right now (dirty little secret; they often delibertly schedule shooitng scenes to have enough trailer material ready early on) but November is just too early for a trailer anyway.

 

And a new ELIO trailer is more apt with MOANA II.

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dudalb Global Phenomenon

dudalb

Posted
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7 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

So the Superman movie has Krypto and the Fantastic Four movie has HERBIE.

Hope they don't leave out the Mailman at the Baxter Building or the Yancy Street gang. 

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