WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[YM!]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

April 3

 

Fatherhood: Without a trailer, I have no idea what to expect from this. Even with Kevin Hart as the lead in a dramatic film, I don’t know if that will automatically translate to a big gross. It could be another Upside or just settle in the 40s somewhere. I’m leaning towards the latter right now. 12/44 (3.67x)

 

The Lovebirds: Again, without a trailer, it’s hard to predict this. However, the three writers don’t give me much confidence even with Michael Showalter directing. Kumail isn’t immune to bad comedies as we saw with Stuber. 10/25 (2.5x)

 

The New Mutants: This is my prediction: GOING TO DISNEY+

 

Peter Rabbit 2: This has the hallmarks of a sequel nobody asked for. Even though the first Peter Rabbit was a surprise hit with audiences, it hasn’t had any relevance after it left theaters. If Paddington 2 can lose almost half of the first’s gross, so can this. The one saving grace Peter Rabbit 2 has is Easter the following weekend, but he’s still dropping. 20/65 (3.5x)

 

 

New Mutants won’t go to Disney+, it’ll go to Hulu

[Eric Duncan]

@WrathOfHan you sleep?

[Neucentro]

Regarding Peter Rabbit, there is some uniqueness in the animation and humor that other kids movies can't replicate. I think people who fondly remember the first one will be ready to see this.

[WrathOfHan]

11 hours ago, Eric Laurence said:

@WrathOfHan you sleep?

Oops will get those out shortly

[WrathOfHan]

April 17

 

Monster Problems: This is from the same writer as Monster Trucks. Are we sure this isn’t a spinoff? Either way, the crew behind the scenes doesn’t give off much confidence. Maybe the trailer will be good? 8/20 (2.5x)

 

Trolls: World Tour: Trolls has become one of the biggest brands for kids again ever since the release of the first film. The first trailer for the sequel came out all the way back in June, so Universal wants audiences (and kids) to know more toys are on the way. I think an increase from the first is coming, but the size of that increase depends how many adults can be roped in this time. Even with a hit single from Timberlake, the first was still pretty younger skewing. I don’t see that changing, but an increase is happening nonetheless. 60/190 (3.17x)

[WrathOfHan]

April 24

 

Bad Trip: This is essentially a full length episode of The Eric Andre Show, so I’m hyped. However, UAR’s constant delays make me wary. This was supposed to release two months ago until getting delayed to February 28, and now it’s here. Maybe they’re hoping for a launch at SXSW to build hype? Keanu numbers sound right for now, but it can go higher or lower. 8/24 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

May 1

 

Black Widow: And the award for the most average CBM trailer goes to… Black Widow! Prior to the trailer, I was feeling very high on this film’s chances. Black Widow’s death is one of the most memorable parts of Endgame, and people have been asking for her own film for a while. However, the film looks pretty routine and dull. Being the first MCU product since Far from Home will help it a lot, but I don’t know if it can hit 400M. A total in the low 300s feels right,  especially as competition ramps up later in its run. 115/320 (2.78x)

[Eric Duncan]

May 1

 

Black Widow: Natasha Romanoff is back with her long overdue solo adventure. Trailer views are great, as expected, and the hype is definitely there. You could argue that unlike some prior MCU films, there’s not a real sense of urgency that makes this a must-see compared to, say, Captain Marvel or even Far From Home. But honestly, I’m just not gonna doubt Marvel. They know what people like, they know how to get people excited, they know they still got people underwhelmed by their teasers, and there’s probably many who will see it as a sort of a swan song to Nat and ScarJo, which can boost it even further. Should do about average MCU numbers, which...yeah, is still really good. 130/365 (2.81x)

[Eric Duncan]

May 8

 

Covers: I never even heard of this movie until I had to look it up for this thread. Doing a quick look, it’s about the music industry, it’s from the director of Late Night, and it stars Dakota Johnson. Sounds fine. Should do fine? I dunno. There’s not much else to say with this one. 5/20 (4x)

 

Greyhound: Tom Hanks’ recent movies, like Bridge of Spies, The Post, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, are starting to follow a specific pattern. Teens opening, strong legs. This one will probably do the same. Nothing amazing, but will be a good pick for geriatrics and will hold well throughout the weeks. 14/60 (4.28x)

 

Legally Blonde 3: Adjusted, the first Legally Blonde gets to 155.3M, while Legally Blonde 2 gets to 136.9M. And I think there’s been enough time between 2 and 3 that fans will be curious to check it out. It also helps that Reese has been having great success on TV in the last couple years to help keep her in the news. Obviously adjusted there's a big decline, but unadjusted it's only slightly less than the mid-90s of the previous two. 25/85 (3.4x)

[YM!]

I just don’t get the high Trolls Numbers.

[Eric Duncan]

May 15

 

Scoob!: After Detective Pikachu, I’ve been much more wary about trailer views. But with almost 30M views on WB’s channel, I’d argue it at least shows there is a decent amount of interest here. Scooby-Doo is a property that still seems relevant to kids, although maybe not as much as in 2002, and is nostalgic to adults. I also think being the first time these characters are put in CGI might not be a major help, but it definitely won’t hurt. This won’t rock the boat, but it should be one of Warner’s better-performing animated movies, especially since Black Widow will be way weaker than Endgame. 40/135 (3.37x)

 

Untitled Saw Film: Ah yes, a reboot of a property that just had its last film three years ago. That always turns out well. The inclusion of Chris Rock and SLJ might turn some heads, and should definitely get a lot trailer views, but this seems like Child’s Play where most people will just kind of shrug and move on. 10/20 (2x)

 

The Woman in the Window: Amy Adams in what’s basically a remake of the iconic classic thriller Disturbia sounds entertaining. If only the delay and especially the third act retool weren’t so concerning. Maybe it'll get good enough reviews, but we’ll see if people are really that interested. I predicted 30/105 last year, so let’s just cut things down for size. 20/65 (3.25x)

 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

Black Widow will be way weaker than Endgame.

Finally a controversial take 

[Alli]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 1

 

Black Widow: And the award for the most average CBM trailer goes to… Black Widow! Prior to the trailer, I was feeling very high on this film’s chances. Black Widow’s death is one of the most memorable parts of Endgame, and people have been asking for her own film for a while. However, the film looks pretty routine and dull. Being the first MCU product since Far from Home will help it a lot, but I don’t know if it can hit 400M. A total in the low 300s feels right,  especially as competition ramps up later in its run. 115/320 (2.78x)

This is controversial indeed. I see the OW higher

[Eric Duncan]

May 22
 

Fast & Furious 9: When I was writing this up, I was planning to put this over Hobbs & Shaw, but the more I thought about it, I realized I couldn’t think of any good reason why. Like...at all. Of course, I say this at a time where we have zero marketing to go off of. But with that said, there’s nothing here that makes me confident in this. Fate of the Furious got mediocre reactions from fans and audiences, and Hobbs & Shaw didn’t fare much better. And while I like John Cena and Cardi B, I don’t really think those are exciting cast members that will make people excited for this. And yeah, the rumors of a CGI Paul Walker makes me really uncomfortable, and I think that will be the case for a lot of others. Maybe the story here is really off the wall and fun and will make people excited, but for now...yeah, under Hobbs & Shaw. At least the Dwayne-Tyrese beef will be funny. 65/74/150 (2.31x, 2.03x)

 

The Spongebob Movie: Sponge on the Run: Like Scooby-Doo, Spongebob’s still a popular property to kids, and is nostalgic towards adults. And yeah, the trailer’s got some great laughs (Keanu!). But there doesn’t seem to be that much of a hook. CGI Spongebob was used in Sponge Out of Water already, and when you take out the CGI, it just feels like an extended episode of the show to me. And with Wonder Woman and Soul taking family audiences, and Scoob still making money, this has to really stand out, which doesn’t seem like the case so far. But it should still get across the century mark, if only because of the brand and holiday. 30/40/100 (3.33x, 2.5x)

[Eric Duncan]

May 29

 

Artemis Fowl: Even Disney doesn’t care about this movie. It was ignored back at D23, people were unimpressed by the initial trailer, there’s been zero marketing since then. It being left to die amongst the summer offerings was not a coincidence. Sorry @Morieris 15/40 (2.67x)

[Eric Duncan]

So in case you're wondering, yeah I decided to throw out all my May ones early. Bit busy today, and I knew my Fast 9 prediction is bound to make some heads turn, so have fun and discuss away.

[misafeco]

28 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

May 1

 

Black Widow: And the award for the most average CBM trailer goes to… Black Widow! Prior to the trailer, I was feeling very high on this film’s chances. Black Widow’s death is one of the most memorable parts of Endgame, and people have been asking for her own film for a while. However, the film looks pretty routine and dull. Being the first MCU product since Far from Home will help it a lot, but I don’t know if it can hit 400M. A total in the low 300s feels right,  especially as competition ramps up later in its run. 115/320 (2.78x)

How can it be average when it has Budapest? 

 

11 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

May 22
 

Fast & Furious 9: When I was writing this up, I was planning to put this over Hobbs & Shaw, but the more I thought about it, I realized I couldn’t think of any good reason why. Like...at all. Of course, I say this at a time where we have zero marketing to go off of. But with that said, there’s nothing here that makes me confident in this. Fate of the Furious got mediocre reactions from fans and audiences, and Hobbs & Shaw didn’t fare much better. And while I like John Cena and Cardi B, I don’t really think those are exciting cast members that will make people excited for this. And yeah, the rumors of a CGI Paul Walker makes me really uncomfortable, and I think that will be the case for a lot of others. Maybe the story here is really off the wall and fun and will make people excited, but for now...yeah, under Hobbs & Shaw. At least the Dwayne-Tyrese beef will be funny. 65/74/150 (2.31x, 2.03x)

That's an interesting prediction. If it becomes reality then maybe the F&F franchise is starting its dying stage.

[YM!]

12 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

So in case you're wondering, yeah I decided to throw out all my May ones early. Bit busy today, and I knew my Fast 9 prediction is bound to make some heads turn, so have fun and discuss away.

Fast 9 is about expected but I don’t see both Scoob and Sponge going over $100M DOM so close to each other. One will hurt and go sub $100M probably Sponge due to less novelty.

[JB33]

Release date question:

 

Are Antlers and Antebellum not opening wide on April 17 and 24th respectively?

[Eric Duncan]

22 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Release date question:

 

Are Antlers and Antebellum not opening wide on April 17 and 24th respectively?