WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[Legion Again]

45 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Ooh this is gonna be good. Any chance for a reflection of your 2019 predictions too?

I am on the case. Watch this spot. 

[Eric Duncan]

Love you @CoolioD1 😘

[WrathOfHan]

I'll post my second half of February predictions later, but I disagree heavily on The Invisible Man  

[WrathOfHan]

February 21

 

Brahms: The Boy II: Trying to remember if I predicted this last year… oh wait, I did! This is sandwiched between two Blumhouse joints.  STX is feeding this to the wolves. 5/10 (2x)

 

Call of the Wild: I am curious to see how well this does. Disney/Fox seems to be putting a lot of effort into marketing this; I remember when the trailer was released it was airing on TV during some primetime slots. Harrison Ford hasn’t had a leading role in a while, which could draw out older audiences. It’s also different enough from Sonic to co-exist for families. Chris Sanders has a strong animated track record, and I think that can translate to live action. Let’s just hope he’s closer to Brad Bird than Andrew Stanton. 30/120 (4x)

[WrathOfHan]

February 28

 

The Invisible Man: I’m really looking forward to this. Leigh Whannnell made a really fun flick last time with Upgrade, and while this is a much more serious film, it’s a unique approach to the Invisible Man. This may be a problematic movie if certain themes aren’t treated carefully, but the trailer has generated decent buzz. It has enough breathing room between Fantasy Island and A Quiet Place Part II as well. If this is a strong horror film, I wouldn’t be surprised by a mini breakout. 30/80 (2.66x)

[Ethan Hunt]

Gotta say I'm closer to han than eric on invisible man. 

[filmlover]

The Invisible Man looks a solid hit to me. I think it could make $60M+ if all goes right.

[Legion Again]

9 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Ooh this is gonna be good. Any chance for a reflection of your 2019 predictions too?

I compiled the bigger/funnier ones: 

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Eric Duncan]

March 6
 

Onward: John Lasseter’s evil is no more. After nothing but sequels, Pixar is finally back with an original slate, and this kickoff seems promising. Trailer views for the first and second trailer, fickle as trailer views may be, are already outpacing most of Coco’s trailers, while the premise and trailers are fun enough with some good laughs. A starry cast full of A-listers, arguably somewhat a rarity for Pixar movies, also doesn’t hurt. I don’t think the premise nor the ads have been as effective or memorable as Inside Out’s or Zootopia’s, so I don’t see a breakout compared to those two. But it should definitely be a great start for Disney and Pixar, especially if the emotional “dead Dad” stuff lands, and it’ll be a good appetizer for Pixar’s true moneymaker this June. 68/245 (3.6x)

 

The Way Back: The Way Back is a bit of a throwback to the good ol’ days of inspirational sports movies we don’t see much of anymore, like Glory Road and Miracle, which shares a director. But with that said, the movie isn’t really catching on, as the trailer on WB’s YouTube page hasn’t even crossed 2 million, and with audiences being allergic to midbudget stuff like this nowadays...well, at least it’ll do well on HBO Max. 8/30 (3.75x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 13
 

Bloodshot: Sony, I get that comic book movies are all the rage, but even I have never heard of Valiant Comics until this movie was announced. What makes you think the GA will? Anyways, looking at the trailer, this will probably play like most non-Fast Vin Diesel offerings, doing somewhere between Xander Cage and Last Witch Hunter. Make its money, then quietly come and go from theaters. 14/35 (2.5x)

 

I Still Believe: The I Can Only Imagine boys are back with another Christian joint. And while Easter is a lot later compared to 2018, it should do on par, if not better than their last film. These movies have their audience, and the Erwins did a great job selling their last film that I’m sure they can do it to this guy’s fanbase too. Bigger opening, smaller legs, about the same results. 20/85 (4.25x)

 

My Spy: It’s never a good sign for any movie when it’s delayed twice. And kids, both boys and girls, already have or will have better options once this comes out, which means this will basically get the table scraps. Sorry Bautista. 7/20 (2.86x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 20
 

A Quiet Place Part II: The full trailer will drop on New Year’s, so I don’t have much to work with right now. But either way, I feel confident in this prediction here. This is obviously not gonna be the big lightning in a bottle hit the first one was financially, and possibly even critically. But it should still do okay enough. The first film is still popular, and I think there are plenty who are interested in how the story continues and what Emily Blunt and her kids are up to. The return of the creative team might also help too. It 2 dropped about 35% from its predecessor, and I think that sounds about right here. 40/120 (3x)

[Eric Duncan]

March 27
 

Mulan: If you talked to me in July after the teaser broke records, I would have said this was going to be #1 for the year. But since the Hong Kong stuff, and views for the second trailer went pretty sharply down, I’ve been a touch more pessimistic. Key word here being “a touch”, because it’s still gonna be big. 1998’s Mulan wasn’t as popular as some of the other Renaissance films when it first came out, but it’s garnered a huge, nostalgic following over the years, and I definitely think those fans would be excited to see a new adaptation. And despite the drop-off, it’s obvious that interest is still there and kicking. And while plenty of 90s kids are whining about the lack of Mushu and songs, I feel like people won’t care so long as the movie’s good. If anything, deviating from the 1998 film might actually make some people who are tired of these Disney remakes get a little more on board with this film.

 

Definitely expect this to be among the upper end of the Disney remakes. 115/330 (2.87x)

[DAJK]

I agree wholeheartedly with Mulan. Quiet Place 2 I really have no idea, that one is really going to be the wildcard of the month. I could see anything as low as 30/80 for it, or as high as 65/200. 

[Krissykins]

Yeh I get a good feeling about The Invisible Man

[WrathOfHan]

March 6

 

Onward: I’m sure this will be a fine movie, but something about the trailers just isn’t clicking with me. They are too reliant on the concept and universe rather than the story, and I suppose that’s good for keeping plot details to a minimum. However, every time I get a trailer for this in theaters, it’s really hard to get a read on what the audience thinks. Onward lacks a hook. Being a Pixar movie, I’m sure it will do well, but I don’t see particularly big numbers for it, especially when a more appealing Pixar film is out in June. 50/180 (3.6x)

 

The Way Back: Damn, this is a weird Peter Weir movie to re-release, but I’m not complaining. Oh? It’s a Ben Affleck movie? :sadben: The trailer makes this look like a solid if generic crowdpleaser. I’m not sensing big numbers, but being the first older-skewing adult drama since Oscar season will help it a bit. 15/45 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 13

 

Bloodshot: It has been far too long since the last shitty Vin Diesel film. Sony is banking on this being a new shared universe, which seems absurd, but their confidence is enough for Return of Xander Cage numbers at least. The trailer generated a lot of buzz when it came out, and Vin Diesel has a good social media presence when he has a new film. I’m not predicting a total big enough for a new franchise, but it will make ok money. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

I Still Believe: oh boy, another Christian music biopic from the directors of I Can Only Imagine. That was a breakout hit for the Christian genre, but looking at the Wikipedia pages for the two films’ subjects, MercyMe is much bigger than Jeremy Camp. Lionsgate is bing bullish on this with tickets already on sale, and depending how big this is, it could be in theaters long enough to take advantage of Easter. I don’t know if it can get there, but Lionsgate can try. 15/60 (4x)

 

My Spy: STX will never release this movie. If they do, it’ll do around 21 Bridges numbers I guess? 7/21 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 20

 

A Quiet Place Part II: A Quiet Place was an outstanding horror breakout with one of the highest totals the genre has ever seen. A sequel to it had many different routes to take, but I think focusing on the Abbotts is a good move. There will be more characters this time around, so it probably won’t feel repetitive of the first. Barring a drop in quality, I expect this to stay close to the first’s total, especially with a rather empty April. If the year doesn’t have a horror hit before this, A Quiet Place Part II will fix that thirst. 60/180 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

March 27

 

Mulan: Although I appreciate Disney is actually trying to make a remake different for once, I think that will come at the cost of a lower domestic total (worldwide is a different story). By straying from the lighter animated film and making it a dark war film, younger audiences will be turned away from it. However, most of the audience that would be interested in a film with this tone is not the Disney audience and will assume it’s just another typical remake. This remake will be caught in a spot where it can’t please several demos, and its gross is going to suffer. It also doesn’t help that Mulan is closer in popularity to something like Cinderella than TLK/BATB/Aladdin. At least China should have massive returns thanks to no attachment to the source material. 50/150 (3x)

[Cmasterclay]

I love you guys and love you both for doing this, but the thing is every year your predictions would make it the greatest year in box office history, when in reality the box office is slow, shitty, and nothing really breaks out now except MCU and Disney remakes. I recommend lowering everything by 30%. 

 

A Quiet Place 2 seems like one of the more obvious steep drops in recent memory - it's like the Ted 2 of horror movies. Novelty gonna novelty. 

 

Mulan gonna threaten 400m tho. 

[Eric Duncan]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

I love you guys and love you both for doing this, but the thing is every year your predictions would make it the greatest year in box office history, when in reality the box office is slow, shitty, and nothing really breaks out now except MCU and Disney remakes. I recommend lowering everything by 30%. 

 

A Quiet Place 2 seems like one of the more obvious steep drops in recent memory - it's like the Ted 2 of horror movies. Novelty gonna novelty. 

 

Mulan gonna threaten 400m tho. 

Here I was thinking I was being pessimistic this year.