The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[SpiderByte]

2 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

80 would be a disaster. It would probably barely cross $400m globally, if it legs out like WF.

How is 80 suddenly a disaster when people were just guessing under Incredible Hulk.

 

Only on BOT...

Edited October 10, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

How is 80 suddenly a disaster when people were just guessing under Incredible Hulk

Under Incredible Hulk would be an even bigger disaster. If that happens, I am fully expecting Cap 4, Thunderbolts, and Blade to go under Flash WW.

[SpiderByte]

Just now, Bob Train said:

Under Incredible Hulk would be an even bigger disaster. If that happens, I am fully expecting Cap 4, Thunderbolts, and Blade to go under Flash WW.

Why does their success somehow hinge on this movie that has zero connection to any of them

[Relevation]

3 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

80 would be a disaster. It would probably barely cross $400m globally, if it legs out like WF.

Yeah I was gonna say, if “good walkups” take it to $80M then sales must’ve been dire to begin with and it would probably fall short of Quantumania WW off a higher budget 

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

Why does their success somehow hinge on this movie that has zero connection to any of them

Because it signals hype for the MCU as a whole has completely died, if this can't even open above $60m.

[SpiderByte]

I'm glad my totally serious "Avengers 5 under 400 WW" post is being taken so literally 

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Because it signals hype for the MCU as a whole has completely died, if this can't even open above $60m.

Yeah, no, that's not a thing. Everyone here treats each marvel release as a sequel to the last movie released in the year, not like to the actual previous movie. It's why we had braindead takes like Jonathan Majors controversy hurting Guardians 3, a movie he has absolutely no involvement with 

[Deep Wang]

 

 

Yeah, 3D sucks, but that's a pretty clever poster.  

[Zakiyyah6]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Yeah, no, that's not a thing. Everyone here treats each marvel release as a sequel to the last movie released in the year, not like to the actual previous movie. It's why we had braindead takes like Jonathan Majors controversy hurting Guardians 3, a movie he has absolutely no involvement with 

Ant-Man 3 terrible reception clearly hurt Guardians 3 opening weekend. 

[YM!]

11 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

How is 80 suddenly a disaster when people were just guessing under Incredible Hulk.

 

Only on BOT...

I mean it’s better than before but it’s still almost half of the first’s OW. A potential 400m worldwide gross is also horrendous given how big the first was and kind of would prove there being superhero fatigue.

[ChipDerby]

2 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Ant-Man 3 terrible reception clearly hurt Guardians 3 opening weekend. 

And what will guardians great reception do

[Mojoguy]

1 minute ago, YM! said:

I mean it’s better than before but it’s still almost half of the first’s OW. A potential 400m worldwide gross is also horrendous given how big the first was and kind of would prove there being superhero fatigue.

We don't need proof that there is superhero fatigue, we already have that with every DC movie flopping this year.

[ChipDerby]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

We don't need proof that there is superhero fatigue, we already have that with every DC movie flopping this year.

 

It's that any different than previous DC films flipping

[SpiderByte]

3 hours ago, Willowra said:

If this does less than Eternals WW or even less than $500m then RIP box office of Kang Dynasty in advance.

 

 

Wait, my post was a joke, people are actually saying Avengers 4 will bomb because...Brie Larson is friends with the director?

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait, my post was a joke, people are actually saying Avengers 4 will bomb because...Brie Larson is friends with the director?

I really really hope you’re not allowed near heavy machinery

[YM!]

8 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

And what will guardians great reception do

Barely missed outgrossing the second one and it did so due to great WOM which is more of the exception vs the norm

Edited October 10, 2023 by YM!

[SpiderByte]

13 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Ant-Man 3 terrible reception clearly hurt Guardians 3 opening weekend. 

If this is the premiese, since Guardians did well, by your logic that must help The Marvels, correct?

[Willowra]

9 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Wait, my post was a joke, people are actually saying Avengers 4 will bomb because...Brie Larson is friends with the director?

Avengers 5 will bomb if The Marvels does less than $500m as Captain Marvel is very likely to lead Avengers. There are all indications about this. She is current Avengers leader in comics. Her appearing in Shang-Chi post credit scene & Destin Daniel posting about Captain Marvel isn't just friendship.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Willowra

[Valonqar]

Everyone do the math. QM (bad reviews, February) and Vol 3 (good reviews, May) opened with over 100M ( 106M and 118M respectively). So chances that TM openes under 100M are low given that fandom assured 100M OW for both the good and the bad movie this year. This year trend is more important than last year or pandemic era or whatever. Remember, last year Tom Cruise was King of the boxoffice and Margot Robbie a boxoffice poison, while this year TC's sure-fire movie flopped and Margot is the Queen. 

 

Vol 3's 118M OW was down from Vol 2's pre-pandemic 146M OW.

Since we all expect TM to drop from CM (no Avengers bump), take your pick which drop from CM's 153M OW that stays above 100M 3 day is reasonable and you'll get an unbiased and thus very likely real OW.

 

QM went up from AMATW cause that one opened with 75M so QM had nowhere to go but up. So it isn't as comparable as Vol 3, IMO

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Valonqar

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

And what will guardians great reception do

It will help as much as Shazam great reception helped BOP OW or as much as Shang-Chi great reception helped Eternals OW

 

People see MCU movies as their own things nowadays, individual sub-franchises like Guardians, Spider-Man, Deadpool may be able get hype but overall interest in the brand is lowest it's been in years.

 

See how Eternals sucking didn't stop NWH from becoming huge. And MoM and Thor 4 didn't hurt BP2 OW much.

 

However, Quantumania was so offensively bad it torpedoed interest in the brand as a whole, and it was also teased as the most important MCU movie. If it was another self-contained Ant-Man movie, just with trash reception, I don't think Gotg3 would have been hurt by it so much, but because it was a Kang vehicle interest in the brand suffered.