The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[YM!]

Think the floor for this is Quantumania numbers ~475m ww if reviews suck, WOM mediocre - the usual. Feel like there's enough Marvel fans to get it over that hump. 

 

That said think the 11/10 slot and Veteran’s Day weekend spot Disney wants for Marvel movies going forward is fucking stupid. Open 11/3 or first week of November and get an extra week of PLF along with a softer drop is far better than an extra 5-10m OW at best.

[HummingLemon]

My prediction

$260M domestic

$310M overseas

$30M China

= $600M WW

 

If they give it a $250M budget there's a good chance it'll be a flop

[Willowra]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

while I agree that The Marvels will drop due to CM being inflated by Endgame, AIW is not a good comparison cause Marvel has much more loyal fans. Even freakin Quantumania managed 400M and those movies never sniffed 1B. 

Sexist fans are already boycotting this movie, and by humiliating Brie Larson by changing the title because of incels, they might have made sure that non-sexist and feminist fans also boycott this movie.

[YM!]

Just now, Willowra said:

Sexist fans are already boycotting this movie, and by humiliating Brie Larson by changing the title because of incels, they might have made sure that non-sexist and feminist fans also boycott this movie.

Because the “woke” Barbie movie died at the box office this year, right?

[Willowra]

Just now, YM! said:

Because the “woke” Barbie movie died at the box office this year, right?

I'm saying exactly opposite, just read the comment again.

[TheFlatLannister]

51 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

Can see Aquaman doing the same.

Then we can confirm that genre is dying

ehh idk. The DC brand outside of Batman is pretty much cooked so I wouldn't use that as a good measuring stick. The MCU is currently in a funk, but are still pretty stable commercially. I would say we can confirm the genre is dying if Secret Wars outright flops 

[Squire]

42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Geez people you are so naive. This is a mathematical imposssibility. That's below Ant Man 3 and Ant Man movies had the smallest boxoffice of all Marvel IPs pre-pandemic. No way this drops from 1.1B to 350M lmaooo c'mon! I don't care for this movie but bad math always riles me up.

Agreed 100%. 
 

CM was forgettable and I’m not interested in Marvels, but I can’t see how this movie grosses less than $500M WW. 

[SpiderByte]

2 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Can see Aquaman doing the same.

Then we can confirm that genre is dying

People say this but..while Marvels not clearing 800 plus average WW anymore, they're hardly dead. DCs recent collapses are more related to issues with branding than the genre as a whole. The last time Marvel had a 900+ ww release was...last year. And their next is...probably next year.

[HummingLemon]

If you take out Wonder Woman 1984 and The Suicide Squad (cuz covid, and no Birds of Prey is not a covid film), the last 5 DCEU movies average out to $223M WW on a $143M average budget.

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by HummingLemon

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

ehh idk. The DC brand outside of Batman is pretty much cooked so I wouldn't use that as a good measuring stick. The MCU is currently in a funk, but are still pretty stable commercially. I would say we can confirm the genre is dying if Secret Wars outright flops 

if an avengers film that will most likely be a complete cameofest "outright flops" the genre won't be dying, it will be completely and utterly cooked

[eddyxx]

On 9/8/2023 at 6:57 PM, SpiderByte said:

 

That comic cover on the left is really nice. If I still bought comics, I'd want that one.

[Willowra]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

if an avengers film that will most likely be a complete cameofest "outright flops" the genre won't be dying, it will be completely and utterly cooked

The scooper which is claiming all these is not saying they are just cameos, she is claiming that Secret Wars will be focused on these past Fox & Sony characters. That account will alone damage Secret Wars to the extent by the time it releases that it won't be able to revover. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Willowra

[HummingLemon]

If you look back at the general trends it really is sad to see how much good-will there was after No Way Home exploded only for it to get ruined by movies with mixed reception. Even Ant-Man was on track to do $300M+ DOM if it was good

 

And now this film is gonna do like $250M DOM rip

Edited September 17, 2023 by HummingLemon

[Willowra]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

If you look back at the general trends it really is sad to see how much good-will there was after No Way Home exploded only for it to get ruined by movies with mixed reception. Even Ant-Man was on track to do $300M+ DOM if it was good

 

And now this film is gonna do like $250M DOM rip

250m DOM would be a great total, but here we're discussing whether this movie is heading towards disaster, like less than or equal to Eternals DOM total, as ERCboxoffice is predicting.

Edited September 17, 2023 by Willowra

[AN9815]

As a Marvel fan I must say that Quantumania was so bad that it made me reconsider watching every Marvel movie in theatres like I had been doing since Marvel's The Avengers (2012). Now, Guardians of the Galaxy. Vol 3 was fantastic but I also feel like the Disney+ shows have done a lot of damage. Not only because of their quality (I think some of them are actually decent/really good) but because of the amount of new characters they are introducing that we don't know when we will see again. 

 

Phases 1-3 had also mediocre movies but at least everything was well connected and you felt like the story was progressing. I didn't have that feeling with Phase 4 or, so far, Phase 5. I know they had a lot of issues with COVID and now the strikes but they should have really focused on a cohesive story line. What I mean with this is that a lot of Marvel fans are probably not watching every movie like they used to and are probably more selective, not only on quality but on how much it adds to the bigger story. Personally, I am very excited for The Marvels as I love Brie Larson as Captain Marvel and I quite liked Kamala and Monica on their respective shows. Also the movie looks really fun. However, I am less enthusiastic about Captain America 4 or Thunderbolts. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by AN9815

[toutvabien]

Let's get a couple of things straight: Box Office Pro drops their long range forecasts a month before a film's release. They just dropped one for the Eras Tour. So, that's coming in October, alongside first numbers from industry tracking. That will also be closer to whenever tickets will go on sale for this film.

 

Yea, Captain Marvel became as big as it did because of its timing and position in the MCU, but that's the case for any MCU movie, especially the Avengers ones. One interesting little detail between the two films is that the first one came out at peak Marvel/super hero movie time, literally just before the culmination of the Infinity Saga, on a Phase 3 that was perceived as "great movie after great movie". This sequel is not opening to as great of a build up; waning interest, diminishing returns, divisiveness. Guardians 3 in itself is evidence that in current times, the brand is bleeding - even with great reviews and WoM, it opened 19% below its predecessor and that was seen as an overperformance relative to expectations. Quantumania appears to be somewhat of a floor, but a similarly (or worse) received Marvels could drop that floor on an even lower level. However, even if the reviews and WoM are decent, kinda like the first film, it's gonna do a lot better than Quantumania. And if they are good to great, it could do Guardians numbers or better.

[toutvabien]

11 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

but because of the amount of new characters they are introducing that we don't know when we will see again.

This is by far imo my biggest gripe with the Multiverse Saga thus far. I loved Shang-Chi! Where the f is he? Why is he not getting a sequel until after Kang Dynasty? Why does that film look like it's gonna be his next appearance? The only characters with multiple appearances throughout those 3 years have been Wanda, Yelena, Wong, Dr. Strange and... Valentina Allegra de Fontaine. And I guess the Guardians had their cameo in Love and Thunder. Sure, with The Marvels, you can add Fury, Kamala and Monica to the list and by next year, Red Guardian, Bucky, Sam, Ross, Taskmaster, Agatha, Echo, maybe Daredevil? And that's largely because next year's Brave New World and Thunderbolts are literally set up to cross-over characters. Wish that was more on Marvel's agenda.

[AN9815]

6 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

This is by far imo my biggest gripe with the Multiverse Saga thus far. I loved Shang-Chi! Where the f is he? Why is he not getting a sequel until after Kang Dynasty? Why does that film look like it's gonna be his next appearance? The only characters with multiple appearances throughout those 3 years have been Wanda, Yelena, Wong, Dr. Strange and... Valentina Allegra de Fontaine. And I guess the Guardians had their cameo in Love and Thunder. Sure, with The Marvels, you can add Fury, Kamala and Monica to the list and by next year, Red Guardian, Bucky, Sam, Ross, Taskmaster, Agatha, Echo, maybe Daredevil? And that's largely because next year's Brave New World and Thunderbolts are literally set up to cross-over characters. Wish that was more on Marvel's agenda.

Agreed. I mean at least with Shang-Chi we can expect him to be in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars on top of his own sequel but two of my favorites, Moon Knight and Kate Bishop, are not even confirmed to return to any future project so far. This makes me so angry, don't introduce that many characters if we have to wait 6-7 years to see them again. 

[toutvabien]

2 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

Agreed. I mean at least with Shang-Chi we can expect him to be in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars on top of his own sequel but two of my favorites, Moon Knight and Kate Bishop, are not even confirmed to return to any future project so far. This makes me so angry, don't introduce that many characters if we have to wait 6-7 years to see them again. 

Well, there are some pleasing rumors about Kate at least. But yea, other than Spidey, I feel like we should have a decent idea by this point on when we're seeing next these characters and the answer shouldn't be "in Kang Dynasty and Secret Wars".

[Valonqar]

5 hours ago, HummingLemon said:

If you look back at the general trends it really is sad to see how much good-will there was after No Way Home exploded only for it to get ruined by movies with mixed reception. Even Ant-Man was on track to do $300M+ DOM if it was good

 

And now this film is gonna do like $250M DOM rip

 

NWH goodwill was NWH goodwill. Most people knew it was an isolated event and treated it as such. It was not a refelection of expectations for the rest of Marvel movies. Endgame was a fitting conclusion and it was logical that many casual fans would jump off Marvel train except for very special case such as NWH. The rest of these movies are not NWH plain and simple so boxoffice isn't and will not be anywhere close. 

 

Fans view Marvel only from rabid fandom POV but majority of Marvel fandom was and is casual and they got satisfying ending to all that universe sharing so many moved on. I guarantee you that X Men actors will not have the same impact as Tobey and Andrew. It was one time event with 3 actors playing the most popular character. X Men movies never posted Spiderman numbers. 

Edited September 17, 2023 by Valonqar