Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted March 31, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted March 31, 2012 And will most likely sell more tickets than both of those films. A huge accomplishment that no one thought was possible even just a few weeks ago.Absolutely. And I don't mean this undervalue that achievement, but it genuinely does make me wonder what "the big three" that have yet to release this year can accomplish. Quality is key, of course, but I just have this gut feeling we're going to see some sick numbers between now and 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 I guarantee you this will not sniff 400. It'll hit 350 but anything after that is up in the air. I think 375 is the ceiling. It'll drop 50% next weekend too.That conclusion ignores what even twilight level front loading points to as the films top out, to predict a sub 2.0 multiplier off opening wk implies that 1 the film is a sequel, and 2 the WOM is bad. Both conclusions I consider to be incorrect, even worse is the comparisons are to the most frown loaded sequels ever released. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 $400m isn't happening, let alone an absurd $460m. Lay off the crack, sil vous plait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 The "Oh but it's Spider-Man!" logic is weak sauce when you look at how Batman Begins and Superman Returns both struggled to $200 million. Barely crossed it. Like the first SPIDER-MAN film struggled to 200 M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Absolutely. And I don't mean this undervalue that achievement, but it genuinely does make me wonder what "the big three" that have yet to release this year can accomplish. Quality is key, of course, but I just have this gut feeling we're going to see some sick numbers between now and 2013.Same here. Most people have TDKR pegged as the top grossing movie of the year. But there's just something about The Hobbit that tells me a possible upset is in order. If it can manage to even come close to LOTR level admissions and tack on 3D/IMAX and we're gonna see something monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 No point arguing with BK, he's the optimist of the bunch. He predicted something like 800m domestic for Avatar. It's not a bad thing, I certainly prefer his logical optimism to Kal-El's insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ariadne Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Any drop below 60% is great for a film that opened to $152m in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted March 31, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted March 31, 2012 Like the first SPIDER-MAN film struggled to 200 M. To be fair, the first Batman (1989) performed at the same level as Spidey 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted March 31, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted March 31, 2012 Same here. Most people have TDKR pegged as the top grossing movie of the year. But there's just something about The Hobbit that tells me a possible upset is in order. If it can manage to even come close to LOTR level admissions and tack on 3D/IMAX and we're gonna see something monstrous.Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 375 M is where I see this finishing. Massive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kayumanggi Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 To be fair, the first Batman (1989) performed at the same level as Spidey 1.Which is why I don't get his logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Biggestgeekever Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 $400m isn't out for Hunger Games yet. Assuming a $62m weekend, the same legs as 300 would give it about $410m.It'll end up higher than Hobbit regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted March 31, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted March 31, 2012 Which is why I don't get his logic.He's basically saying that Batman Begins and Superman Returns had a lot of predecessor stigma holding them back from bigger numbers. TASM is in a very similar position is what he's saying.Or in other words:Superman 1 = Batman89 = Spidey 1Superman 3 & 4 = Batman & Robin = Spider-Man 3Superman Returns = Batman Begins = Amazing Spider-Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 No point arguing with BK, he's the optimist of the bunch. He predicted something like 800m domestic for Avatar. It's not a bad thing, I certainly prefer his logical optimism to Kal-El's insanity.My Avatar prediction was legit, I made the prediction a good year and a half before the films release, and had it not been for Alice I would have 100% nailed the film. Predicting sub 388m based on an opinion only backed by the most front loaded of sequels is an illegit prediction based on data that is completely incomparable to begin with seeing as the circumstances for a sequel are 100% of the time different. In the end proper data will prove what i am saying, as it did for Avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Random piece of info but THG and Thor have been pacing with each other almost identically over the past week.Monday: THG -69% drop, Thor -68% dropTuesday: THG -4.4% drop, Thor +0.1% increaseWednesday: THG -22.2% drop, Thor -22.6% dropThursday: THG 1.5% increase, Thor -3.9% dropFriday: THG 130% increase, Thor 127% increase.Thor had a huge 66% increase on its 2nd Saturday. Is THG in store for something similar? I think its possible but right now I'd think a 50% increase is more reasonable. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B J Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Random piece of info but THG and Thor have been pacing with each other almost identically over the past week.Monday: THG -69% drop, Thor -68% dropTuesday: THG -4.4% drop, Thor +0.1% increaseWednesday: THG -22.2% drop, Thor -22.6% dropThursday: THG 1.5% increase, Thor -3.9% dropFriday: THG 130% increase, Thor 127% increase.Thor had a huge 66% increase on its 2nd Saturday. Is THG in store for something similar? I think its possible but right now I'd think a 50% increase is more reasonable. Who knows.Nice catch, I noticed it earlier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noctis Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 My Avatar prediction was legit, I made the prediction a good year and a half before the films release, and had it not been for Alice I would have 100% nailed the film. Predicting sub 388m based on an opinion only backed by the most front loaded of sequels is an illegit prediction based on data that is completely incomparable to begin with seeing as the circumstances for a sequel are 100% of the time different. In the end proper data will prove what i am saying, as it did for Avatar.Exactly, that's exactly why it's hard to take you seriously. Why predict a film when there was absolutely no footage whatsoever released? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarpoint1111 Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Variety fooled us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blackspider Posted March 31, 2012 Share Posted March 31, 2012 Using Thors Sat and Sun increase/decrease %Friday: 18.9mSaturday: 31.4m (+66%)Sunday: 21.5m (-31.5%)Total: 71.8mVery SM1-esque as well if it could pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
