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So bom has $18.85 and a 130% jump. That's a good increase, but I'm sure disappointing for many after that $24m from last night.

Yep, the increase is good, but I was totally amped at the possibility of 24m.
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So far, the Hunger Games is looking to drop about 60% this weekend. That's slightly less than how Twilight held, and that had half the opening and had its second weekend on Thanksgiving.So yeah, this is still pretty damn awesome.

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BJ, where do you see this ending up with?

400m-460m, geting the 3.0 will be very hard from this point, I consider 400m curtain due to the amount it made for the entirety of wk one, very few films get bellow 2.0 multiplier off opening wk (sub 2.0's are trends realized by the potter and twilight sequels, and in general mega flops/ disappointments like spidey3 or iron-man2), It is not something generally experienced by a non-sequels, even Alice managed a 2.25 (if this did the same it would top out at 427m), Twilight had a 2.06 (that would put this film at 390m) even after holiday assistance through-out its opening wk. 2nd largest non-sequel opening would be Iron Man which managed a 2.52 (that would pt the film at 478m), but that film had exceptional drops and a 3.25 multiplier off of opening wknd.

When adjusting the largest openers produced:

Spider-Man did 2.66(505m for THG) for a 551m top out off a 206m opening wk

The Passion did 2.56 (486m for THG) for 472m top out off of a 184m first seven days

Transformers did 2.04 (388m for THG) for 368m top out off a 190.5m first seven days including monday 6pm-midnight shows. (

I Am Legend did 2.44 (464m for THG) for 291m top out off a 119m opening wk. (only included because it has the highest december opening wknd)

The two worst are noticeably twilight and transformers, both opening over a holiday frame with massive openings, and limited audience in comparison, but they still managed a 2.0+.

Using this data, I think the worst case for the film would be a 2.1 multipler of opening wk for a 400m flat top out.

If the film can Hold well throughout April it can still crawl past a 2.4+ for a 3.0+ multiplier off opening wknd, because its late run holds (wk 4 and beyond) will not be hampered by continuous 3D releases steeling theaters as it was for Alice, and being a non-sequel I expect late run holds to be on Iron-Man/Twilight level with numerous sub 40% drops.

It would take a sequel level multipler off opening wk for this film to get less than 390m, and its already going to hold better than the highly front-loaded sequels this wknd as is. I do think it needs 65m minimum this wknd for 3.0 to still be a possilbility.

Edited by B J
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I've also found that the majority of summer releases get around a 1.9-2.2 off opening wk, while films outside the summer go tend to go 2.2+, unless the film in question sucked.

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Outside of some hardcore fans opening weekend, everyone I know that has seen the film either likes it or loves it. It still has 4 1/2 stars on yahoo.com, so its being received well. It looks like it will have a rather steep drop this weekend due to the huge opening it experienced, but after this week I expect things to settle down quite a bit, and the WOM will kick in, and give it some decent legs.

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I guarantee you this will not sniff 400. It'll hit 350 but anything after that is up in the air. I think 375 is the ceiling. It'll drop 50% next weekend too.

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  • Founder / Operator

I guarantee you this will not sniff 400. It'll hit 350 but anything after that is up in the air. I think 375 is the ceiling. It'll drop 50% next weekend too.

I agree. Still an amazing total, but I think $400m is out of reach.
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  • Founder / Operator

With regards to questions about why topics view as unread, its because we've been in Performance Mode most of the day which disables certain non-essential features of the board to help save resources (and, theoretically, load times).

That being said, I'm about to switch everything back on to see how things react now since the earlier band-aid we put on this afternoon. Please let me know (preferably in the Help Desk board) if SQL errors start popping up again and/or load times get worse again.

Edited by ShawnMR
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I'm glad I didn't see the 24M number before I saw the 18.5M number. THAT would have been heartbreaking.

Yeah we were all on cloud 9 when that came out but we were still wary that it was gonna go down. Just not down to 19m. It still performed right around where I had it for Friday. It should be in store for a big increase today that will help its weekend gross not look as bad as the Friday to Friday drop.
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My feeling at this point is that it finishes in between TF3 and DH2, making it the second-biggest film in almost two years. That...is incredible.

And will most likely sell more tickets than both of those films. A huge accomplishment that no one thought was possible even just a few weeks ago.
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