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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

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Posted by Shawn Robbins,

PSA:   As a heads up to everyone, we'll be starting a new thread here very soon. For those who are newer to the forum, we typically have to split threads once they reach 1,000+ pages and are still highly active. In the past, such topics have created database slowdown issues that affect the entire forum.   Rest assured, this thread will be archived when it is locked and a link to the new one will be posted to help you find it easily (it will also be pinned to the top of the box o
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Posted by XXR & Friends,

Yea we're gonna drop all this non tracking stuff. That expressly means you, @excel1. Next post from you that isn't tracking related is a thread ban.    Anyone else continues, it's points. 

We're all tired of the non-tracking related thread derailments. This is your fair warning.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 5/3/2022 at 3:48 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-37 Thursday(106 showings): 2348(+440)/16780 ATP: $14.23

 

T-38 Friday(163 showings): 1667(+390)/27099 ATP: $14.82

 

T-39 Saturday(168 showings): 1688(+476)/28009 ATP: $13.65

 

T-40 Sunday(131 showings): 602(+164)/22410 ATP: $13.07

Jurassic World Dominion Alamo Drafthouse

 

T-34 Thursday(114 showings): 2613(+265)/17772 ATP: $14.22

 

T-35 Friday(163 showings): 1888(+221)/27860 ATP: $14.79

 

T-36 Saturday(177 showings): 1947(+259)/28509 ATP: $13.60

 

T-37 Sunday(131 showings): 690(+88)/23168 ATP: $13.05

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted

Deadline's early number is not encouraging but it matches up almost perfectly with @ZackM 130PM update against NWH (using the same 4% adjustment in ATP as previews).

 

As I recall, @el sid's Sunday update also seemed to point to $40M or so. That would be in line. Unfortunately we'd be looking at an OW around Incredibles 2. 

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ImNotRacistAtAll Indie Sensation

ImNotRacistAtAll

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

Deadline's early number is not encouraging but it matches up almost perfectly with @ZackM 130PM update against NWH (using the same 4% adjustment in ATP as previews).

 

As I recall, @el sid's Sunday update also seemed to point to $40M or so. That would be in line. Unfortunately we'd be looking at an OW around Incredibles 2. 

Omg...what a pathetic OW. 

Specially now that most people started taking that 200M OW for granted. 

 

Can already see the flop narrative. Will be interesting to see the John Campea show. 

 

What a huge disappointment. 

 

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XXR & Friends Global Phenomenon

XXR & Friends

Posted
Posted
Just now, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Omg...what a pathetic OW. 

Specially now that most people started taking that 200M OW for granted. 

 

Can already see the flop narrative. Will be interesting to see the John Campea show. 

 

What a huge disappointment. 

 

 

Well, I'm not going to start saying $180M+ is pathetic but it would certainly be unexpected given the circumstances. We will wait and see how things go. My Friday presales tracking from yesterday would point to $55M or more.

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 5/4/2022 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Previews

 

Denver: 1366 tickets sold

2.17x Dune Day 2 (11.07M)

3.96x NTTD Day 3 (24.67M)

1.80x JW Dominion Day 2

Top Gun Maverick Denver Preview Showings

Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total 256 2574 9.95%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 361 2612 13.82%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST 2 DAYS TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
1226 N/A 27408 4.47% 15 155

 

Tuesday

Total 500              N/A 2447

Wednesday

 

Total 180               N/A 276

Overall

 

Grand Total 1906                540 30131

 

0.294x Doctor Strange 2 T-20 (10.59M)

0.629x Batman Day 4 (13.58M)

2.48x Dune Day 4 (12.66M)

 

Got rid of the NTTD comp. Top Gun is just performing way better

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ImNotRacistAtAll Indie Sensation

ImNotRacistAtAll

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13 minutes ago, MultiverseXXR said:

 

Well, I'm not going to start saying $180M+ is pathetic but it would certainly be unexpected given the circumstances. We will wait and see how things go. My Friday presales tracking from yesterday would point to $55M or more.

Wonder if it's even going to hit a billion at this point. 

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 5/4/2022 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Previews

 

Megaplex: 1331/34489

1.43x Dune Day 2 (7.29M)

2.77x NTTD Day 3 (17.28M)

3.10x JW Dominion Day 2

Top Gun Maverick Megaplex

 

T-18 Tuesday(5 showings): 633/2742

T-20 Thursday(122 showings): 1231/31497

Total Previews: 1864(+533)/34239

 

0.271x Doctor Strange 2 T-20 (9.77M)

0.493x Batman Day 4 (10.65M)

1.50x Dune Day 4 (7.64M)

 

T-21 Friday(195 showings): 1826/52681

 

0.533x Doctor Strange 2 T-21

1.59x Batman Day 4 (55.48M)

1.51x Dune Day 4 (18.72M)

 

T-22 Saturday(204 showings): 1030/55104

 

0.556x Doctor Strange 2 T-22

1.82x Batman Day 4 (78.86M)

1.87x Dune Day 4 (25.66M)

 

T-23 Sunday(193 showings): 188/52781

 

0.422x Doctor Strange 2 T-23

1.76x Batman Day 4 (59.98M)

1.04x Dune Day 4 (10.17M)

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Inceptionzq Box Office Gold

Inceptionzq

Posted
Posted
On 5/4/2022 at 3:11 PM, Inceptionzq said:

Top Gun Maverick Previews

 

Drafthouse: 1487/19800

Top Gun Maverick Drafthouse

 

T-20 Thursday(117 showings): 2012(+525)/19788

 

T-21 Friday(145 showings): 2154/24419

 

T-22 Saturday(158 showings): 1766/26389

 

T-23 Sunday(143 showings): 779/23991

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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Omg...what a pathetic OW. 

Specially now that most people started taking that 200M OW for granted. 

 

Can already see the flop narrative. Will be interesting to see the John Campea show. 

 

What a huge disappointment. 

 

 

Lol.  

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EmpireCity Blockbuster

EmpireCity

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ImNotRacistAtAll said:

Oh cmon. 

 

Going from 215-230M predictions to 180+ is just as depressive as it could get. 

 

WoM is really killing this

 

It's doing $90m+ for Friday.  What are you talking about?

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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, MaverickXXR said:

Are they? What's the precedence for that? 

Simple. Just check how weekdays hold in Summer are compared to rest of year. THU is a weekday.

 

Thor 4 I am thinking

40-45
49-62
53-69
42-58

184-234

 

7 minutes ago, MaverickXXR said:

True. So L&T previews/OW ratio will probably be similar to NWH. 

However, there is one thing that may change the above mentioned projections.

Summer means people can actually go in matinees on THU and that will hit ATP hard, so THU GROSS may be deflated.

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