The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)

[katnisscinnaplex]

4 minutes ago, M37 said:

You know, I was going to ask that earlier this week (but felt like I was searching for reasons why Alpha was softer)

 

Also, and I don't know how widespread these are yet, but there was an IMAX Live event that may have not have registered under the main JWD show list, for Alpha and other chains as well. I know it was listed separately on Fandango at least

Yeah, that one was much smaller, I want to say like 50 shows total.  I only had one in all of my tracking (Santikos) and I just rolled it in with the others

[Porthos]

 

=====
 

FWIW, I accounted for both the Live Q&A IMAX event (had exactly one locally) and the various flavors of double features, which were listed separately on Fandango.

 

Also let's not forget @katnisscinnaplex:

 

18 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Batman	T-0	Jax	7	142	575	2,496	21,693	11.51%
		Phx	7	133	624	3,732	19,467	19.17%
		Ral	28	104	520	2,837	11,614	24.43%
	Total		42	379	1,719	9,065	52,774	17.18%
Doctor Strange 2	1-Hr	Jax	7	187	942	7,638	26,589	28.73%
		Phx	7	172	585	7,810	22,029	35.45%
		Ral	8	161	816	7,626	17,407	43.81%
	Total		22	520	2,343	23,074	66,025	34.95%
Dune	1-Hr	Jax	7	47	211	959	6,928	13.84%
		Phx	7	34	147	977	4,463	21.89%
		Ral	8	25	180	814	3,195	25.48%
	Total		22	106	538	2,750	14,586	18.85%
Ghostbusters	1-Hr	Jax	7	69	258	821	10,952	7.50%
		Phx	7	41	174	885	6,665	13.28%
		Ral	8	38	160	678	4,991	13.58%
	Total		22	148	592	2,384	22,608	10.54%
JW3	1-Hr	Jax	7	119	1,101	3,846	16,830	22.85%
		Phx	7	107	593	3,049	16,578	18.39%
		Ral	8	87	717	2,923	9,858	29.65%
	Total		22	313	2,411	9,818	43,266	22.69%
JW3+JP	1-Hr	Jax	5	5	0	198	811	24.41%
		Phx	6	6	-2	415	638	65.05%
		Ral	7	7	21	257	688	37.35%
	Total		18	18	19	870	2,137	40.71%
No Time to Die	1-Hr	Jax	7	73	162	860	11,145	7.72%
		Phx	7	59	107	834	7,197	11.59%
		Ral	7	40	213	1,037	4,417	23.48%
	Total		21	172	482	2,731	22,759	12.00%
Shang-Chi	1-Hr	Jax	6	60	493	1,423	8,619	16.51%
		Phx	7	51	262	1,349	7,193	18.75%
		Ral	8	40	332	1,327	4,505	29.46%
	Total		21	151	1,087	4,099	20,317	20.18%
Top Gun 2	1-Hr	Jax	7	129	641	2,931	20,520	14.28%
		Phx	7	108	283	2,817	16,665	16.90%
		Ral	8	92	399	2,326	10,132	22.96%
	Total		22	329	1,323	8,074	47,317	17.06%

 

So I wanted to change it up and put all of the final runs in my post for comparison sake.  The first thing that jumped out to me was that JW3 had more sales today than any of these other movies did on preview day in the same time frame.  That's pretty crazy.  I believe it's second only to NWH (3,639) from movies I've tracked. (Confirmed)   ATP finished at 14.85 which is also higher than a lot of the comps

 

JW3 T-1 hr comps

 - Black Widow - 1.334x (17.6m)

 - Batman (Thu) - missed

 - Eternals - 1.828x (17.36m)

 - F9 - 2.56x (18.17m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.216x (17.88m)

 - Top Gun 2 + EA - missed EA

 - Dune - 3.57x (18.21m)

 - Ghostbusters - 4.12x (17.09m)

 - Shang-Chi - 2.39x (21.08m)

All action movies - 18.28m

All PG-13 movies - 19.86m

All movies - 19.5m

 

Really good walkups make me thing this one will in fact reach 18m.  If we include double feature $ in previews, even higher!

 

JW3 + Double Feature T-1 hr comps

 - Black Widow - 1.452x (19.16m)

 - Eternals - 1.99x (18.9m)

 - F9 - 2.79x (19.78m)

 - Top Gun 2 (Thu) - 1.324x (19.46m)

 

Overall top sales comps

 

Movie	Previews	T-hr Sales	Comp
Spider-Man	50,000,000	34,681	$15,409,014
Doctor Strange 2	36,000,000	23,074	$16,675,392
JW3	???	10,688
Top Gun 2	14,700,000	8,074	$19,459,202
Black Widow	13,200,000	7,362	$19,163,488
Eternals	9,500,000	5,372	$18,900,968
Shang-Chi	8,800,000	4,099	$22,945,694
F9: The Fast Saga	7,100,000	3,836	$19,782,273
Fantastic Beasts 3	6,000,000	3,445	$18,614,804
Morbius	5,700,000	2,950	$20,651,390
Dune	5,100,000	2,750	$19,821,382
No Time to Die	5,200,000	2,731	$20,350,641
Halloween Kills	4,850,000	2,493	$20,792,940
Ghostbusters	4,150,000	2,384	$18,605,369
Jujutsu Kaisen: 0	2,880,000	2,004	$15,360,000
Suicide Squad	4,100,000	1,958	$22,380,388
Downton Abbey + EA	1,800,000	1,470	$13,087,347
Jungle Cruise	2,700,000	1,102	$26,186,570
Lost City	2,500,000	1,003	$26,640,080

 

 

who joined me in sticking their necks out at exactly 18m. 👍

[M37]

9 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Yeah, that one was much smaller, I want to say like 50 shows total.  I only had one in all of my tracking (Santikos) and I just rolled it in with the others

Yeah, that’s what I figured, thank you for the confirmation (I only knew about it because one of the markets I spot check was “missing” IMAX shows so I went looking for it). But they will likely become larger over time as they continue to roll-out the upgrade, but if they aren’t consolidating on main title page, people are going to miss them and depress attendance 

[katnisscinnaplex]

Just now, M37 said:

Yeah, that’s what I figured, thank you for the confirmation (I only knew about it because one of the markets I spot check was “missing” IMAX shows so I went looking for it). But they will likely become larger over time as they continue to roll-out the upgrade, but if they aren’t consolidating on main title page, people are going to miss them and depress attendance 

No problem.  A few months ago I started doing title searches on Fandango to make sure I capture all the early access and special screenings.  Between that and my showtimes source, if there's something else out there the buyers are probably missing it too

[Porthos]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

884 shows !!!! I dont think there are that many imax theaters around. @katnisscinnaplex did the double shows play outside imax as well?

 

All of my double features locally were at standard auditoriums, ftr.  Regal upcharged them to PLF pricing while CInemark did not.  Had 14 of them locally, 2 at non-reserved seating theaters.

 

Did fairly brisk business as well.

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

 

All of my double features locally were at standard auditoriums, ftr.  Regal upcharged them to PLF pricing while CInemark did not.  Had 14 of them locally, 2 at non-reserved seating theaters.

 

Did fairly brisk business as well.

 

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

884 shows !!!! I dont think there are that many imax theaters around. @katnisscinnaplex did the double shows play outside imax as well?

 

What Porthos said.  Every one in my regions was standard as well.  MTC1 got their shows up much earlier than the other chains and, most likely because of that, took most of the sales for those shows.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 6/9/2022 at 10:13 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-14	Jax	6	16	3	23	1,959	1.17%
		Phx	5	13	0	22	2,108	1.04%
		Ral	7	18	0	28	1,933	1.45%
	Total		18	47	3	73	6,000	1.22%
Black Phone (EA)	T-6	Jax	1	1	3	22	60	36.67%
		Phx	1	1	5	22	106	20.75%
	Total		2	2	8	44	166	26.51%
Elvis	T-14	Jax	6	26	8	77	4,520	1.70%
		Phx	6	16	5	59	2,103	2.81%
		Ral	8	20	0	57	2,074	2.75%
	Total		20	62	13	193	8,697	2.22%
Elvis (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
	Total		2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
Lightyear	T-7	Jax	6	78	21	142	10,803	1.31%
		Phx	6	69	28	152	11,262	1.35%
		Ral	8	34	21	88	3,581	2.46%
	Total		20	181	70	382	25,646	1.49%
Lightyear (EA)	T-6	Jax	3	3	6	25	600	4.17%
		Phx	1	1	5	9	410	2.20%
		Ral	1	1	2	2	261	0.77%
	Total		5	5	13	36	1,271	2.83%
Minions 2	T-21	Jax	6	101	12	30	16,556	0.18%
		Phx	6	66	1	57	12,191	0.47%
		Ral	8	52	10	34	6,699	0.51%
	Total		20	219	23	121	35,446	0.34%

 

Looks like a really slow day for anything not named Jurassic (or Top Gun assumedly).

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-7 comps

 - Bad Guys - 6.59x (7.57m)

 - Boss Baby 2 - 11.57x (15.16m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.62x (11.84m)

 - Sonic 2 - .695x (3.46m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-14 comps

 - Ghostbusters - .214x (888k)

 - Morbius - .161x (916k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Still no real horror comps)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-14 comps

 - No Time to Die - .501x (2.61m)

 - F9 - .339x (2.4m)

 - Ghostbusters - .566x (2.35m)

 

Minions 2 T-21 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .62x (3.11m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Black Phone	T-13	Jax	6	16	4	27	1,959	1.38%
		Phx	5	13	2	24	2,108	1.14%
		Ral	7	18	0	28	1,933	1.45%
	Total		18	47	6	79	6,000	1.32%
Black Phone (EA)	T-5	Jax	1	1	7	29	60	48.33%
		Phx	1	1	8	30	106	28.30%
	Total		2	2	15	59	166	35.54%
Elvis	T-13	Jax	6	26	4	81	4,520	1.79%
		Phx	6	16	12	71	2,103	3.38%
		Ral	8	20	11	68	2,074	3.28%
	Total		20	62	27	220	8,697	2.53%
Elvis (EA)	T-12	Jax	2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
	Total		2	2	4	69	403	17.12%
Lightyear	T-6	Jax	6	78	35	177	10,803	1.64%
		Phx	6	69	49	201	11,262	1.78%
		Ral	8	34	26	114	3,581	3.18%
	Total		20	181	110	492	25,646	1.92%
Lightyear (EA)	T-5	Jax	3	3	25	50	600	8.33%
		Phx	1	1	0	9	410	2.20%
		Ral	1	1	2	4	261	1.53%
	Total		5	5	27	63	1,271	4.96%
Minions 2	T-20	Jax	6	101	5	35	16,556	0.21%
		Phx	6	66	3	60	12,191	0.49%
		Ral	8	52	10	44	6,699	0.66%
	Total		20	219	18	139	35,446	0.39%
Nope	T-41	Jax	7	51	21	21	8,591	0.24%
		Phx	6	20	41	41	4,344	0.94%
		Ral	7	22	25	25	3,210	0.78%
	Total		20	93	87	87	16,145	0.54%

 

Lightyear (Thu) T-6 comps

 - Bad Guys - 7.94x (9.126m)

 - Encanto (Tue) - 6x (9m)

 - Paw Patrol (Fri) - 2.84x (12.86m)

 - Sonic 2 - .815x (4.06m)

 

Black Phone (Thu) T-13 comps

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 - Morbius - .157x (897k)

 - Suicide Squad - .296x (1.21m)

(Still no real horror comps)

 

Elvis (Thu) T-13 comps

 - No Time to Die - .537x (2.79m)

 - F9 - .344x (2.44m)

 - Ghostbusters - missed

 

Minions 2 T-20 comp

 - Sonic 2 - .63x (3.15m)

[el sid]

I just noticed that my guess was also absolutely perfect. Somehow 😉. My average number from the comps was 13.0M and I said add 5M for better walk-ups = 18.0M.

 

But jokes aside, the walk-ups obviously were decent judging from several reports here and the Friday presales already convinced me yesterday. So at the moment I'm really optimistic that it reaches - I would say a number but I don't want to curse it ^^.

[Tinalera]

Right, my bad I had an unexpected engagement this morning which I didn't get back home to till pretty close to now, so my Final Friday numbers are all over the place with shows already started/sold out and I don't think I can reasonably get an accurate count for Dominion for today-Im sorry about that  Usually I do a final count of Friday first thing in morning, before theatres open-but didn't expect to be gone that long. 

[Tinalera]

Right more Lightyear Labwork-

 

Lightyear

Thurs June 15

 

SW Ontario

10 theatres

33 shows

Total Sold 24

Total remaining 6308

Total Seats 6332

No sellouts 

Percentage .38

 

Toronto Ontario

8 Theatres

41 shows

total sold 93

Total remaining 12320

total seats 12413

Percentage .75

 

SW and Toronto Total seats 117 sold out of 18745

.62 percent

 

Combined Thurs and Fri final sales reference approx (NOT COMPS)

Bad Guys      9.0 Mil ( Thurs/fri 1.1/7.9)

Boss Baby 2  9.1 (1.3/7.8)

Paw Patrol    4.5 (no thurs number (?))

Sonic 2        32.3 (6.3/26)

Toy Story 4  59 (12/47)

 

I cannot do comps as I do not have previous pre sale days to go by for my theatres. I have last 3 Days of Jurassic Dominion so for an experiment I might do Dominion comps to Lightyear at T3 mark (even though those prolly won't be comparable LOL)

 

So Im using Mojo Friday numbers as they dont seem(?) to have Thurs included-hence me finding Mojo Friday and googling Thurs numbers.  IF there is a place that includes Thurs/Fri numbers OR if Mojo actually does include it in their friday count-let me know-or if anyone can suggest an easier place to find Thurs/Fri numbers would be appreciated.

 

If nothing else the reference numbers above are good for maybe someone to grab as a ref when they do their own numbers

 

Thank you for being so patient as I try and work my own way of working towards eventual real comps

 

 

 

 

[Tinalera]

Are we giving our guesses for friday?

 

17,454,311 is my call-not a dollar more!

[XXR & Friends]

11 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

Are we giving our guesses for friday?

 

17,454,311 is my call-not a dollar more!

For JWD true Friday?

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, ZurgXXR said:

For JWD true Friday?

You know what? YEAH! Go big or go home I always say! (looking for the exit)

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, Tinalera said:

You know what? YEAH! Go big or go home I always say! (looking for the exit)

$40M 

[Brainbug]

Just now, ZurgXXR said:

$40M 

 

100M

 

Spoiler

 

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

$40M 

no

[Tinalera]

12 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

$40M 

I dont know how to insert a meme-but I would insert that Ben Stiller Meme "Do It! Do It!"

[Tinalera]

Lightyear

Friday June 17 

 

SW Ontario

10 theatres

34 shows

Total sold 93

Total remaining 6308

Total seats 6332

no sellouts 

Percentage .38

 

Toronto Ontario

7 Theatres

35 shows

Total sold 124

Total remaining 6679

Total seats 6803

percentage 1.82

 

Southwest and Toronto Total Seats Sold 148/12415 

Percentage 1.19

 

Combined Thurs and Fri final sales reference approx (NOT COMPS)

Bad Guys      9.0 Mil ( Thurs/fri 1.1/7.9)

Boss Baby 2  9.1 (1.3/7.8)

Paw Patrol    4.5 (no thurs number (?))

Sonic 2        32.3 (6.3/26)

Toy Story 4  59 (12/47)

 

I cannot do comps as I do not have previous pre sale days to go by for my theatres. I have last 3 Days of Jurassic Dominion so for an experiment I might do Dominion comps to Lightyear at T3 mark (even though those prolly won't be comparable LOL)

 

So Im using Mojo Friday numbers as they dont seem(?) to have Thurs included-hence me finding Mojo Friday and googling Thurs numbers.  IF there is a place that includes Thurs/Fri numbers OR if Mojo actually does include it in their friday count-let me know-or if anyone can suggest an easier place to find Thurs/Fri numbers would be appreciated.

 

 

[XXR & Friends]

2 minutes ago, Tinalera said:

So Im using Mojo Friday numbers as they dont seem(?) to have Thurs included-hence me finding Mojo Friday and googling Thurs numbers.  IF there is a place that includes Thurs/Fri numbers OR if Mojo actually does include it in their friday count-let me know-or if anyone can suggest an easier place to find Thurs/Fri numbers would be appreciated.

 

BOM includes preview numbers in their Friday OD number. 

[Tinalera]

1 minute ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

BOM includes preview numbers in their Friday OD number. 

Okay, then I must have misread something somewhere. If Previews are included in OD number then I can delete the extra added on-thank you!